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Old 01-13-2019, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,488 posts, read 13,578,259 times
Reputation: 14442

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemlock140 View Post
How many people retired that month?
Who cares?

It's also contrary to BLS job projections, which projected that 2 out of every 3 "new" jobs created would be created by retiring Boomers. Naturally, BLS assumes that not all vacated jobs will be replaced, as some jobs will be eliminated and others consolidated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtrader View Post
December is always a job loss month.
No, it isn't.

In 2011, you actually gained jobs.

However, the job losses are not significant, since 534,000 falls in the range of 300,000 to 650,000 job losses occurring in other years. You lost 578,000 jobs last year and 587,000 jobs the year before that.

Some sectors of the economy ramp down production in the Fall for any number of reasons, most notably the construction sector.
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Old 01-13-2019, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Thailand
5,232 posts, read 2,496,571 times
Reputation: 9664
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Not in December. You actually lost 534,000 jobs.

157,015,000 Americans were working, but now only 156,481,000 Americans are working.
BLS shows December with more employed.

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Old Yesterday, 06:41 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,488 posts, read 13,578,259 times
Reputation: 14442
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
BLS shows December with more employed.
That's "seasonally adjusted" data.

"Seasonally adjusted" numbers are effectively pulled out of thin air in order to make graphs look pretty.

"Seasonally adjusted" workers may or may not actually exist.

If you go back to August 2017, you lost 894,000 jobs, but BLS reported 156,000 "seasonally adjusted" jobs.

Those 312,000 "seasonally adjusted" workers do not exist: they will not pay FICA taxes, or HI (Medicare) taxes or federal income taxes or State taxes or municipal taxes and they will not consume any goods or services, so they will pay no sales taxes....because they do not exist.

In October 2017, you lost 227,000 jobs and then in November you lost 43,000 jobs and then December was a loss of 578,000 jobs, but in every case BLS reported "job gains" of 261,000 and 228,000 and 148,000.

Even in the middle of the "Great Recession" when 981,000 Americans lost their job in August 2009, the government claimed only 213,000 lost their jobs.

In April 2008, you actually gained 6,000 jobs (yes, six thousand), the government reported a loss of 20,000 jobs.

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm#2017


If you want the software, you can get it for free at the Census Bureau website. Look for "X12".

You can seasonally adjust anything you want.

If you want, you can seasonally adjust the amount of money you spend every month, and then even though you spent $5,000 in December for Christmas, you can convince yourself you really only spent a "seasonally adjusted" $2,200 and feel all better about it.

You can seasonally adjust the amount of gasoline you use every week or every month, and even seasonally adjust the amount of times you have sex every month.
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Old Yesterday, 07:03 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
4,602 posts, read 1,530,574 times
Reputation: 6607
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
That's "seasonally adjusted" data.

"Seasonally adjusted" numbers are effectively pulled out of thin air in order to make graphs look pretty.

"Seasonally adjusted" workers may or may not actually exist.
Watch it. Keep this up and I may have to add a uselessly small rep to your count.
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Old Today, 03:12 AM
 
Location: Thailand
5,232 posts, read 2,496,571 times
Reputation: 9664
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
That's "seasonally adjusted" data.

"Seasonally adjusted" numbers are effectively pulled out of thin air in order to make graphs look pretty.
Right, but disagreeing with the methodology doesn't mean you can just state the other poster is wrong because your preferred official numbers are better than his preferred official numbers. None of the numbers are 100% accurate.

Well I guess you still can correct people like that (and I know you will), but it was an utterly pointless nitpick on your part.
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Old Today, 08:36 AM
 
7,500 posts, read 8,384,399 times
Reputation: 5626
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
That's "seasonally adjusted" data.

"Seasonally adjusted" numbers are effectively pulled out of thin air in order to make graphs look pretty.

"Seasonally adjusted" workers may or may not actually exist.

If you go back to August 2017, you lost 894,000 jobs, but BLS reported 156,000 "seasonally adjusted" jobs.

Those 312,000 "seasonally adjusted" workers do not exist: they will not pay FICA taxes, or HI (Medicare) taxes or federal income taxes or State taxes or municipal taxes and they will not consume any goods or services, so they will pay no sales taxes....because they do not exist.

In October 2017, you lost 227,000 jobs and then in November you lost 43,000 jobs and then December was a loss of 578,000 jobs, but in every case BLS reported "job gains" of 261,000 and 228,000 and 148,000.

Even in the middle of the "Great Recession" when 981,000 Americans lost their job in August 2009, the government claimed only 213,000 lost their jobs.

In April 2008, you actually gained 6,000 jobs (yes, six thousand), the government reported a loss of 20,000 jobs.

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm#2017


If you want the software, you can get it for free at the Census Bureau website. Look for "X12".

You can seasonally adjust anything you want.

If you want, you can seasonally adjust the amount of money you spend every month, and then even though you spent $5,000 in December for Christmas, you can convince yourself you really only spent a "seasonally adjusted" $2,200 and feel all better about it.

You can seasonally adjust the amount of gasoline you use every week or every month, and even seasonally adjust the amount of times you have sex every month.
You are selling a very distorted picture.

1). The BLS, and many other sources, have developed seasonal adjustments for most broadly released data sets expressly for the average joe and lazy news outlets.

2). The unadjusted numbers are released as well. Every single month.

3). The BLS does not make up adjustments as they go in order to hide anything. Seasonal adjustments are have been refined over long periods of time.
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