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Old 01-30-2019, 12:51 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
5,134 posts, read 1,689,736 times
Reputation: 7592

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Please don't post links with no summary or comment.
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Old 01-30-2019, 03:56 PM
 
3,004 posts, read 1,704,851 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Please don't post links with no summary or comment.
Agreed- my edit didnít save.

In summary, the housing fears are somewhat overblown.
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Old 01-30-2019, 04:06 PM
 
Location: Scottsdale az
530 posts, read 461,155 times
Reputation: 429
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Please don't post links with no summary or comment.
Haha thats funny.
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Old 01-30-2019, 07:56 PM
 
Location: Boston
5,865 posts, read 1,730,502 times
Reputation: 4312
look at the skyline in any major city in the United States and all you see are building cranes. Life is good for those willing to work smart.
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Old Today, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
6,998 posts, read 2,083,780 times
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Been following this guy for a while. Interesting methodology:

The Unemployment Rate May Soon Signal A Recession: Update - February 1, 2018
Quote:
For a recession signal, the short EMA of the UER would have to form a trough and then cross its long EMA to the upside. Alternatively, the UERg graph would have to turn upwards and rise above zero, or the 19-week rate of change of the UER would have to be above 8%.

Currently, the trajectories of the unemployment rate's short and long EMA are both upwards and nearing a cross, UERg is approaching zero, and the 19-week rate of change of the UER is also near the critical level.

Forward simulations of the model shows that if the future unemployment rate remains at 4.0%, or reduces, the model does not signal a recession. However, if the unemployment rate should rise to 4.1% in the coming months then the model would then signal a recession.
Obviously the government shutdown raised the rate in January, but only by 0.1 percentage points. It had already been rising a bit the previous few months. And it would take just another 0.1 points to signal a recession, which seems to be in the realm of possibility even taking into account the shutdown.
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Old Today, 12:44 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
5,134 posts, read 1,689,736 times
Reputation: 7592
Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
look at the skyline in any major city in the United States and all you see are building cranes.
Commercial construction runs on a years-long cycle. We've had times those cranes go motionless, not even needed elsewhere.

Quote:
Life is good for those willing to work smart.
Yup, never mind all those worthless people. Got it.
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Old Today, 02:26 PM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
27,508 posts, read 59,504,882 times
Reputation: 30435
Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy
Life is good for those willing to work smart.
And able to benefit from the advice and effort of others who also worked smart.
Certainly in contrast to those who turned their backs on good advice.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Yup, never mind all those worthless people.
How are you defining worthless... or maybe some other term is a better choice?
I'd probably use something related to productivity.
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Old Today, 04:08 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
5,134 posts, read 1,689,736 times
Reputation: 7592
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRational View Post
How are you defining worthless... or maybe some other term is a better choice?
I'd probably use something related to productivity.
I'm not defining the term, merely throwing it back at the tiresome, endless, sickening trope that anyone who is disadvantaged in any way is [boil down a dozen terms, code words and deprecations] just too "worthless" to bother with.

Yes, there are human dregs. But the sweeping dismissal of anyone who didn't make it as well as the poster as having failed through personal shortcomings alone is... something I dearly wish to haunt them in future turns of their perfect lives.
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Old Today, 05:09 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
8,282 posts, read 6,509,582 times
Reputation: 7266
Quote:
Originally Posted by damba View Post
Agreed- my edit didnít save.

In summary, the housing fears are somewhat overblown.
they sure are...

Quote:
inventory in its 23-county market area dipped below two months of supply for the first time since July.

Member-brokers added 3,631 new listings of single family homes and condominiums during December (10.4 percent fewer than a year ago), boosting total active listings to 12,275, up from the year-ago volume of 8,553. Pending sales were down about 8.4 percent from twelve months ago (5,677 versus 6,198), and the volume of closed sales dropped nearly 16.6 percent (6,374 versus 7,642).

For 2018, members of Northwest MLS reported completing 92,555 transactions, which compares with 99,345 closed sales during 2017 for a drop of about 6.8 percent. The median price on last year's closed sales of single family homes and condominiums combined was $402,000, up $32,000 (8.64 percent) from 2017.
I'm sure the frenzy has cooled in Seattle (though if you follow the link and look at the chart, the outlying areas are doing just fine).

So all the really expensive houses sold in the first half of the year, and now folks are buying less expensive homes. Unless the same house sold in June and again in December for 20% less, a drop in median price within the year is way overblown.
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