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Old Yesterday, 11:04 PM
 
Location: USA
132 posts, read 71,448 times
Reputation: 290

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Usually, people are filing or getting ready to file tax returns (this time of year) - those who expect a modest return. That's been delayed, perhaps for a short while, perhaps longer.

Like wheelsup says, its usually slow this time of year.

For myself, this is always our slowest time of year.

Although, there are other factors...... Trump signed a bill authorizing 'backpay' to federal employees. Pretty much gave them additional paid leave (stupid). But businesses that usually support those federal locations and employees are out of sales and will not be getting any 'backpay.' They're just out. Businesses that support those direct businesses will not be receiving 'backpay.' When talking about a million plus federal employees and agency budgets, that's quite a bit. If those average fed employees earn $50K/yr, that's a loss of $961 million per week in revenue that effects businesses. A billion dollar loss per week is pretty significant.
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Old Today, 07:47 AM
 
Location: MID ATLANTIC
7,657 posts, read 17,942,666 times
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Mortgage loans is my line of work and I lend in all 50 states. Applications for me are up 200%. I am also in the DC area, which has been hit hard by the government shutdown. Add the millions of New Year' s resolutions to watch eating, as well as, spending, and hello winter slowdown. I do not see signs of permanent danger, but possibly reasons for rates to come down for a bit, only to head back up once things settle.
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Old Today, 08:00 AM
 
20,565 posts, read 28,957,322 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matthew_MI View Post
Where are those dealerships? Every dealer I've been to low balls you, the low end of KBB range for trade-ins. If you negotiate they bump up their offer slightly, but still the dealer wins every time. Depends on the brand too. Chevy offers huge discounts...what goes around comes around....their resale value is very poor. Honda offers very little discounts, but maintains one of the higher resale values.
Which is why Honda vehicles hold value so well, among other reasons such as quality/reliability. I find it interesting people don't put together two and two with the massive discounts given at brands like Chevrolet, Nissan, Ford and others. That "value savings " is provided to the dealers from the manufacturer with much of it actually attached to the equity in your vehicle and why so many find themselves "upside down" when trading a few years later owing thousands more on the vehicle than it's worth. Kind of like the retail store version of Kohl's which has great "'sales" after marking things up well above value, and "discounting" big percentages to save you money supposedly.
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Old Today, 09:43 AM
 
223 posts, read 31,229 times
Reputation: 268
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
Keep in mind where I am. I'm in Johnson City, TN. Small college metro. Economic base is a university and a regional health system. Not a lot of diversity, and no big price run-ups compared to hot areas. No crashes either.

Originations are down...massively. The local economy has always been challenged at providing decent employment, but there have been no significant negative local economic events vs. this time last year when sentiment was much different.

In general, loan originations are a result of an asset transfer from equities (part or all of the down payment) to real estate. The decline in the value of equities since September is the largest precursor to that decline in loan origination.
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Old Today, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
4,808 posts, read 5,012,317 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmartMoney View Post
Mortgage loans is my line of work and I lend in all 50 states. Applications for me are up 200%. I am also in the DC area, which has been hit hard by the government shutdown. Add the millions of New Year' s resolutions to watch eating, as well as, spending, and hello winter slowdown. I do not see signs of permanent danger, but possibly reasons for rates to come down for a bit, only to head back up once things settle.
I agree. It seems to me things always slow down in January/February. Credit card bills from holiday spending are coming due, colder/snowier so people are more likely to stay in, etc.

I do think it is regional. We are fortunate to live in an area where jobs/incomes are pretty steady (aside from the extended shutdown) so I'm not really observing similar things as OP.

I've been keeping an eye on vehicles since I'll be in the market for a new one later this year. I noticed prices were heavily discounted in late December, and now they've increased. We had dinner reservations that were cancelled last minute by the restaurant, and the wait was an hour+ at some of the neighboring restaurants.
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Old Today, 10:53 AM
 
Location: Kansas City MO
221 posts, read 194,425 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This is what I'm seeing on the street, despite rosy headlines.

3) Most worrisome over the last few weeks. Discretionary spending type places all seem way down. Things seem to have petered out after the holidays.

I'm seeing the same thing at other restaurants, malls, discretionary places. What trends are you sporting?
The stock market acting like it is 1929 on certain days, make the losses since October 1 seem worse than they are. You just get a sense that your net worth is not real and could be severely diminished in a matter of hours, and you have no control other than to spend less and switch to much more conservative investments, thus locking in your frugality.
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Old Today, 11:35 AM
 
223 posts, read 31,229 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weaubleau View Post
The stock market acting like it is 1929 on certain days, make the losses since October 1 seem worse than they are. You just get a sense that your net worth is not real and could be severely diminished in a matter of hours, and you have no control other than to spend less and switch to much more conservative investments, thus locking in your frugality.
The causes of the Great Depression have been studied to death, and are mostly a monetary phenomenon, and such a monetary phenomenon is wholly absent today.

The price of equities today is function of their future earnings, discounted to today (time value of money) with appropriate adjustments for risk and uncertainty. The stock market trends beginning in September 2018 are almost wholly explained by (a) anticipated Fed movements (affects time value of money and hence the present value of those earnings) and the prospects for extreme left-wing progressives spouting anti-business rhetoric being elected in the November elections coupled with the risk that the government might return to the disastrous anti-business policies of the prior administration, thereby reducing future earnings and hence their present value.


The rest, as they say, is history.
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Old Today, 11:55 AM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
4,705 posts, read 1,545,044 times
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I don't know about a slowdown. But the red flags are everywhere that there are serious problems with our economy that are not being represented by the mostly rosy standard indicators and metrics. The entire employment situation, as discussed in a dozen current threads, is one. Contrary market metrics that are being as blithely ignored as were the warning signs in 2007.

To quote that wise old Chinese maxim, I think we may be about to live in very interesting times... that end up being studied even more than the Depression.
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Old Today, 12:01 PM
 
9,565 posts, read 4,062,115 times
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what red flags? economy is fine. the economy is large enough to take several hits and it will still get back up and keep going.

even 2008-2009 only took a few years before it was up and running again. it may have taken a few more years to get back to where it was, but it wasn't like the economy collapsed

there are pockets of the country where the economy doesn't work well but they will be there no matter how good the economy is.
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Old Today, 12:14 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
4,705 posts, read 1,545,044 times
Reputation: 6799
Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSFan View Post
what red flags?
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