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Old 02-28-2019, 01:07 PM
 
Location: SoCal
11,595 posts, read 5,536,125 times
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It’s not a slowdown anymore. Last year my kid’s small business laid off one person, this year so far business is booming. Small business is a bettter indicator of the economy, I think.
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Old 03-01-2019, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Boston
6,275 posts, read 1,851,192 times
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Many on the lower income scale are rooting for a recession thinking that it effects wealthy people more. They resent anybody who has more than them...
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Old 03-01-2019, 12:16 PM
 
8,904 posts, read 4,198,249 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
Many on the lower income scale are rooting for a recession thinking that it effects wealthy people more. They resent anybody who has more than them...

They root for it... up until the big corporations start announcing mass-layoffs.
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Old 03-01-2019, 05:53 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
5,285 posts, read 3,575,170 times
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There are a number of things that look like a slowdown is coming, verrrryyyy slowly. Housing starts are down, existing home sales are down yoy, pretty badly. Pretty much everyone that can afford a house at the current inflated prices and lending standards has bought one. GDP slowed a bit.

We had an underwhelming Christmas season in 2018 - retail sales were down, including online retail, compared to 2017. I'm surprised no one talks about that more. Income was up in December but down in January.

On the other hand, manufacturing has done well, but that's only relatively speaking... automation and globalism has made manufacturing lean and mean, so it's nice that it's doing well but it's not going to drive the economy. Trade has been iffy every since the China trade disputes started.

Market are holding reasonably near their highs but we've been a flatline since the beginning of 2018 if we're being honest. All the gains were 2015-2017. If you missed that, too bad.

I feel like the economy is in a holding pattern waiting for a shoe to drop.
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Old Today, 01:19 AM
 
6,781 posts, read 2,817,360 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This is what I'm seeing on the street, despite rosy headlines.

1) Locally, residential loan originations have greatly declined. My mother works in residential loan origination for the biggest locally owned bank in my region. While I don't have a solid number, loan originations are way down from where they were this time last year, or even six months ago.

2) Local car dealerships are offering major discounts. More off MSRP than I've ever seen. Many are upping incentives for car trade-ins and buying used cars over KBB, which means there is more of a demand on the other end for used cars. Not necessarily a positive trend.

3) Most worrisome over the last few weeks. Discretionary spending type places all seem way down. Things seem to have petered out after the holidays.

I frequent restaurants and bars. Wednesday night is a fairly big night at most of the bars I frequent. I went to a restaurant tonight. The bar was maybe half full, and the dining room had maybe three tables filled at 6:00. Everyone appeared to be drinking the beer on special tonight.

I went to a brewery. While not packed on Wednesday night, the place is usually 2/3-3/4 full. There were only two other customers in there. I've never seen it that empty, even at lunch. The manager, who is a relative of the owner, said things have been weirdly slow for weeks.

I'm seeing the same thing at other restaurants, malls, discretionary places. What trends are you sporting?
I actually get cold calls from dealerships to trade my truck in and get a new one because the market for used cars is HOT. I think they do this because I bought mine new and they figure im the trade it in every few years kind of person when in reality I wanted something that I KNEW how it was driven, treated and maintained from mile 1. That someone was not out running up the rpms to 5-6k at every green light.

I brew my own beer and even the brewing supply place said they are barely hanging on, alot of people just quit drinking. I rarely go out and rarely spend money unless its to slowly pick away at developing my business

I was laid off from a GOOD oil and gas job and they are not hiring hardly anyone back. Companies and business are holding back jobs and cash like scruge mcduck so people will have to respond accordingly. I now teach and its a small fraction of what I once made but even when I was making good money all I was doing was paying off student loans, paid off the truck and dumped money into the mortgage and savings, maybe brewed a little beer and bought tools and software, welding equipment, CNC machines, etc.

Even if someone does get hired they know that they have to save save save because lay offs are now a way of life in the USA and people are finally pulling their heads out of their rear ends. The culture in the USA is that big business is beyond reproach and should never even be slightly regulated and so this is where we are ... until the younger generation finally votes in socialism which is coming but its not here yet.

Once people have federal job protections and can be assured they are not going to be canned in the next reorganization only then will any kind of prosperity return.
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Old Today, 01:34 AM
 
6,781 posts, read 2,817,360 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
They root for it... up until the big corporations start announcing mass-layoffs.
Most of them have likely already been laid off.
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Old Today, 01:35 AM
 
6,781 posts, read 2,817,360 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wheelsup View Post
No one is forced to live in CA!
They have nice weather and beaches, why should only rich people get to enjoy that?
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Old Today, 02:48 AM
 
12,759 posts, read 6,662,628 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pittsflyer View Post
I actually get cold calls from dealerships to trade my truck in and get a new one because the market for used cars is HOT.
This is hilarious reasoning.

Dealerships want you to trade your truck so they can profit both from the trade and the new truck you buy. There’s only one loser in that transaction.
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