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Old Yesterday, 03:03 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,506 posts, read 13,592,743 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This is what I'm seeing on the street, despite rosy headlines.

That is called anecdotal evidence, which is not evidence at all, and is totally irrelevant.
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Old Yesterday, 03:17 PM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
27,321 posts, read 59,254,744 times
Reputation: 30138
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
I'm not trying to be political.
You don't have to try.
The "political" is at the heart of every single thing... including the anecdotal.
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Old Yesterday, 04:14 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
4,727 posts, read 1,554,025 times
Reputation: 6827
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
That is called anecdotal evidence, which is not evidence at all, and is totally irrelevant.
You're absolutely correct. What concerns me - us - is the sheer rising tide of such anecdotes, which is amazingly similar to those who thought just maybe the housing market was being boom-boom-boostered a bit much, given some evident warning signs, around mid-2007.

I've been paying attention to major economic numbers for more than the lifetime of a good part of the participants here, and can't recall any time the Ofishul Numberz seemed so badly out of whack with a ground-truth view of things. Not even 2007. I simply would not be surprised at a revelation that they've been Trumpian let's-pretend for the last year.
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Old Yesterday, 04:30 PM
 
2,517 posts, read 2,206,539 times
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I guess if you say you see the slowdown every few months, eventually you will be able to say "I told you so"
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Old Yesterday, 05:17 PM
 
59 posts, read 26,324 times
Reputation: 159
I have this site bookmarked and view it regularly as a way to notice trends. It lists layoffs and business closings around the country:

Daily Job Cuts - Layoffs News / Job Layoffs 2019 / 2018 , Bankruptcy, Store closings, Business Economy News

Last edited by wildflowers27; Yesterday at 05:34 PM..
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Old Yesterday, 05:30 PM
 
2,007 posts, read 470,521 times
Reputation: 2281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
Local car dealerships are offering major discounts. More off MSRP than I've ever seen. Many are upping incentives for car trade-ins and buying used cars over KBB, which means there is more of a demand on the other end for used cars. Not necessarily a positive trend.
Manufacturer discounts are REGIONAL. Currently, there are NO incentives for pickup trucks in my state (Southeast US) but New England is getting $10k on average, Texas $5k and west coast $5k at least.

Demand has always been high in this region but I have NEVER seen so many BRAND NEW $80,000 trucks on the road in my life.
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Old Yesterday, 05:40 PM
 
2,770 posts, read 3,823,129 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddm2k View Post
Demand has always been high in this region but I have NEVER seen so many BRAND NEW $80,000 trucks on the road in my life.
Ditto in my area. Every other vehicle in this town is a fairly new $70k-80k four-wheel drive King cab pickup with tonneau cover (no one uses a pickup truck to haul stuff anymore). And the dealerships are full of 2- and 3-year-old trade ins. People just LOVE that new vehicle smell.

With record Christmas sales (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/us-c...emarketer.html), one would expect a slow January. Hangover III.

Of course I don't live where there is a large federal "worker" presence so we don't notice them moping about on the Florida and Arizona golf courses, or at the beach.
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Old Yesterday, 05:43 PM
 
2,007 posts, read 470,521 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
That is called anecdotal evidence, which is not evidence at all, and is totally irrelevant.
Anecdotal evidence... is this the part where I'm told to only believe half of what I see?

So we should disregard what's before our very eyes for some conflicting information from a person whom we do not know, cannot verify their credentials, or sources?
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Old Yesterday, 05:45 PM
 
2,007 posts, read 470,521 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Teak View Post
Ditto in my area. Every other vehicle in this town is a fairly new $70k-80k four-wheel drive King cab pickup with tonneau cover (no one uses a pickup truck to haul stuff anymore). And the dealerships are full of 2- and 3-year-old trade ins. People just LOVE that new vehicle smell.

With record Christmas sales (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/us-c...emarketer.html), one would expect a slow January. Hangover III.
You might be able to make $150k and buy one... but to keep buying them? $200k household income AT LEAST.

Self employed trades, assuming. I've never seen them in the parking lot at any corporation for which I've worked.
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Old Yesterday, 05:47 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
4,727 posts, read 1,554,025 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddm2k View Post
Self employed trades, assuming.
...leased, on the stretchiest terms, and thus almost wholly written off.

I long ago lost count of neighbors who were nominally a trade and thus had to have such an uber-truck with their nameplates on the door. Oddly enough, they hardly ever carried any work gear or supplies in these chromed rock-crawlers, but were gone all weekend in them. Huh.
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