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Old 01-17-2019, 10:13 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
4,743 posts, read 1,565,131 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bette View Post
I think most people remember 2008 and are more aware of the signs, however, we still have more first time homebuyers than homes right now. If a home is priced right, it's gone.
Housing is a minor, even normal component these days. Even in crazy markets like Denver.
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Old 01-17-2019, 10:58 PM
 
Location: MID ATLANTIC
7,659 posts, read 17,950,600 times
Reputation: 8227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bette View Post
Florida mortgage broker here - originations have been down, however, there has been a spurt this month since the rates are lower and consumers are very smart.

We have tourists here now and winter residents so it does mask some of what you are saying but my own personal opinion is that the interest rate rise - did have a negative effect.

I think most people remember 2008 and are more aware of the signs, however, we still have more first time homebuyers than homes right now. If a home is priced right, it's gone.
What is hot, hot, hot right now are the Chinese buying up Florida - Orlando specifically. The are hitting the new homes market hard, the putting them up on VRBO or Air BNB to compete with Disney and Epcott and Universal. Those parks charge $700 to $1500 for 4 adults with 4 kids for a hotel room. For $500 a night, they can get a whole house with private pool and hot tub. The landlord payment is around $2500 on a 15 year loan. Then, they pay it off in 5 years or less and buy another. Its crazy. Oh, then some posted this on the mortgage forum
https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com...98b7b192294d57

Rumors and innuendo is what comes to mind when I hear slowdown or "big trouble coming." In 2010 we heard "better do something now, rates gonna rise." In 2011, 2012, 2013 thru 2018 we kept hearing the chant, "rates gonna rise." Well, after 8 years, they finally got it right, but guess what? Rates are still within 1 to 1.25% of the all time lows. That's a pretty narrow range.

My personal investments follow the standards of investing, diversify and diversify., Rght now, i am trying to figure out where to park funds needing to be rolled over.....but wherever they go, i am going to be ready to pounce.......for when that slowdown comes (eventually the OP will be right). But if we are going to GUESS, because indicators are just that, indicators. I'm going to say it will be within a year of the 2020 president taking office.

Off to polish that crystal ball. I will check back on this thread in 2021.
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Old Yesterday, 01:46 AM
 
5,559 posts, read 8,313,710 times
Reputation: 7518
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
I'm a local resident. I know the patterns. Yes, there is a post-Christmas spending hangover. Restaurant crowds seem down across the area. Bars aren't doing business. People are hunkering down. It's not normal January sleepiness.
Most January's people are spending their income tax returns.


That's what's different.
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Old Yesterday, 03:56 AM
 
Location: Thailand
5,253 posts, read 2,506,394 times
Reputation: 9719
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This is what I'm seeing on the street, despite rosy headlines.
What rosy headlines? The vibe I'm getting from the headlines is that the economy is losing steam, Fed is reassessing their plans for interest rates because of it, clearly the stock market has sputtered, and there is lots of speculation on how a worsening economy could impact reelection 2020.
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Old Yesterday, 09:02 AM
 
519 posts, read 392,282 times
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Well, a worsening economy helps the party not in power. So that party will raise the rhetoric promoting public fear in hopes it slows down so they can "rescue you". ...If only you would vote for them. All they need is a compliant media that shows favoritism towards them to push articles that will only highlight deficiencies and none of the victories. Eventually after enough of it, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and everyone points and says "Seeeee! Told you the economy was getting worse!".

There is way more good news out there then bad right now, but you wouldn't know it. All they have to do is keep y'all focused on the bad, magnify it and manipulate.

Yes I realize how conspiratorial it sounds. ...And I hate it. But its become almost laughable how true it is in this millennium.
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Old Yesterday, 12:11 PM
 
294 posts, read 441,083 times
Reputation: 920
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Loud View Post
Well, a worsening economy helps the party not in power. So that party will raise the rhetoric promoting public fear in hopes it slows down so they can "rescue you". ...If only you would vote for them. All they need is a compliant media that shows favoritism towards them to push articles that will only highlight deficiencies and none of the victories. Eventually after enough of it, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and everyone points and says "Seeeee! Told you the economy was getting worse!".

There is way more good news out there then bad right now, but you wouldn't know it. All they have to do is keep y'all focused on the bad, magnify it and manipulate.

Yes I realize how conspiratorial it sounds. ...And I hate it. But its become almost laughable how true it is in this millennium.

I saw the last crash forming about a year and a half before it hit the news, just watching my own business books. It fanned out from places like Florida and Arizona that had overbuilt during the housing bubble. I have a year over year sampling from all over the country with several decades of records. I quit saying anything about it because I got called names and told that I was talking down the economy on behalf of the Democrats. For quite some time, I saw the business news become useless and clueless until everyone else finally learned what was going on. So I don't share my information.. I am too busy running my business and working around economic changes to argue with people who think I am conspiring and who are just going to call me names when I try to tell them what I am seeing.
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Old Yesterday, 12:14 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
4,743 posts, read 1,565,131 times
Reputation: 6878
Quote:
Originally Posted by Themanwithnoname View Post
Most January's people are spending their income tax returns.
Hardly anyone gets a refund until February. It's more of a Feb-May phenomenon, unless you're assuming they immediately load it onto a credit card or spend savings they plan to replace.
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Old Yesterday, 12:29 PM
 
3,756 posts, read 3,105,717 times
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Here in the Pacific NW home existing sales have slowed, the local automobile market is still in the overstock bind it was in mid summer, dealers here are looking for huge empty lots to store the tons of last years trades, not to mention a need to store their huge stock of new units also. We noted a slowdown in the restaurant/nightlife scene locally, but it looks like the usual post holiday/pre-tax scenario for the most part.

The local area is still experiencing a huge boom in the building sector, I've never seen such rambunctious land development in the last fifty years. I'm hoping that can continue to bring a new level of prosperity to the region but can't help but wonder how all that new building is affected by the slowing in existing home sales. The highs of the post recession years may be slowing, but that doesn't automatically set the stage for another catastrophic credit collapse.

Of course all that buying (on credit) over the last few years could be loading up the balance sheet for many households and businesses, too much debt, business or individual, is often the harbinger of a recessionary sobering period. Housing costs for the younger America seems to be eating the lunch of a lot of other businesses, not much left after the mortgage is paid, and those new car payments don't add much to the local bar/restaurant tills either. Our economy, it seems, is continuously adjusting to the highs and lows of consumer spending, and the holiday season usually disrupts the norms of family financial planning, we'll have to see how things look at mid summer in order to form any conclusions.
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Old Yesterday, 12:40 PM
 
2,010 posts, read 474,468 times
Reputation: 2301
Quote:
Originally Posted by jertheber View Post
Here in the Pacific NW home existing sales have slowed, the local automobile market is still in the overstock bind it was in mid summer, dealers here are looking for huge empty lots to store the tons of last years trades, not to mention a need to store their huge stock of new units also. We noted a slowdown in the restaurant/nightlife scene locally, but it looks like the usual post holiday/pre-tax scenario for the most part.

The local area is still experiencing a huge boom in the building sector, I've never seen such rambunctious land development in the last fifty years. I'm hoping that can continue to bring a new level of prosperity to the region but can't help but wonder how all that new building is affected by the slowing in existing home sales. The highs of the post recession years may be slowing, but that doesn't automatically set the stage for another catastrophic credit collapse.

Of course all that buying (on credit) over the last few years could be loading up the balance sheet for many households and businesses, too much debt, business or individual, is often the harbinger of a recessionary sobering period. Housing costs for the younger America seems to be eating the lunch of a lot of other businesses, not much left after the mortgage is paid, and those new car payments don't add much to the local bar/restaurant tills either. Our economy, it seems, is continuously adjusting to the highs and lows of consumer spending, and the holiday season usually disrupts the norms of family financial planning, we'll have to see how things look at mid summer in order to form any conclusions.
Bay Area flight and Bay Area money has done that. Seattle, Portland... but also Denver, Dallas...
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Old Yesterday, 01:04 PM
 
5,559 posts, read 8,313,710 times
Reputation: 7518
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Hardly anyone gets a refund until February. It's more of a Feb-May phenomenon, unless you're assuming they immediately load it onto a credit card or spend savings they plan to replace.
There's a HUGE sector of the population who do.

And they are the type of person who will be wasting their money in a bar on a Wednesday night.

Buddy of mine who has made many life choices I wouldn't ALWAYS gets his in january. (And with 4 kids it's huge. He then spends every dime.)

I have no idea if it's an advance (I know at least once it was, but I'm pretty sure it's not normally because he remarked on how it was "worth the cost" to him that year.)
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