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Old Yesterday, 01:10 PM
 
2,519 posts, read 2,207,716 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Themanwithnoname View Post
There's a HUGE sector of the population who do.

And they are the type of person who will be wasting their money in a bar on a Wednesday night.

Buddy of mine who has made many life choices I wouldn't ALWAYS gets his in january. (And with 4 kids it's huge. He then spends every dime.)

I have no idea if it's an advance (I know at least once it was, but I'm pretty sure it's not normally because he remarked on how it was "worth the cost" to him that year.)


No, there really isn't a huge segment of the population that gets their tax refunds in January. All you have to do is look and see when tax returns are typically filed... then add a few weeks to that before one can expect to see a refund.

I'm not saying nobody gets a refund in January, but most are later in the year.
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Old Yesterday, 01:55 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
4,755 posts, read 1,565,131 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Themanwithnoname View Post
There's a HUGE sector of the population who do.
If you file on January 1st, it's beyond unlikely a refund will be received before about the 20th of January. Far more likely most are not received until February. Each day later into the month puts the refund a positive factor of days further out.

Quote:
And they are the type of person who will be wasting their money in a bar on a Wednesday night.
Ah. More of those unworthy Forty-Seveners and such.

Thanks for playing.
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Old Yesterday, 02:24 PM
 
5,559 posts, read 8,313,710 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steveklein View Post
No, there really isn't a huge segment of the population that gets their tax refunds in January. All you have to do is look and see when tax returns are typically filed... then add a few weeks to that before one can expect to see a refund.

I'm not saying nobody gets a refund in January, but most are later in the year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
If you file on January 1st, it's beyond unlikely a refund will be received before about the 20th of January. Far more likely most are not received until February. Each day later into the month puts the refund a positive factor of days further out.

Ah. More of those unworthy Forty-Seveners and such.
I have no idea what that means.
Thanks for playing.
Y'all say there's not, (% people getting) but there's entire industries based on this:

https://www.taxadvance.com
https://www.jacksonhewitt.com/refund-advance/
https://www.incometaxadvances.com
https://www.sapling.com/5786849/can-...ome-tax-return


You fail.
Thanks for playing.
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Old Yesterday, 03:06 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
4,755 posts, read 1,565,131 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Themanwithnoname View Post
You fail.
Nope, I already excepted people who run to spend the money on a credit card or from savings; "refund advances" are just more of the same.

The actual refund comes no faster than either I or SK said. However, we probably agree on the stupidity of most people who spend that money before they actually have it, at considerable cost in fees and so forth.
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Old Yesterday, 03:15 PM
 
7,069 posts, read 4,602,065 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weaubleau View Post
The stock market acting like it is 1929 on certain days, make the losses since October 1 seem worse than they are. You just get a sense that your net worth is not real and could be severely diminished in a matter of hours, and you have no control other than to spend less and switch to much more conservative investments, thus locking in your frugality.
That would account for spending-behavior by more affluent people, or perhaps those nearing retirement, or already retired. It doesn't account for the presumably lower-income, 21-45 demographic that likely frequents bars in the OP's area.

As others have noted, there's such a thing as self-fulfilling prophesy. Fear of gloom-and-doom causes risk-aversion, depressing prices of risky assets, and reducing investment-spending on speculative things. That in turn suppresses economic activity, and the prophesy fulfills itself. Natural corrective factors include investors' realization that the market's undulations has delivered to them a buying-opportunity. So they buy, and asset prices rise, equilibrating... except that that doesn't presently seem to be happening.

There's another factor that concerns me: the international picture. The US has been an outlier, in the strength and speed of is post-Great-Recession recovery. Elsewhere recovery has been lackluster; for example, Europe. In many places around the world, stock markets have yet to retrace their 2007 peak... a milestone long left behind by the American market. Perhaps this American Exceptionalism is finally wearing thin?
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Old Yesterday, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
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I complete understand and even agree with those who are rolling their eyes and making comments like "If you predict something often enough" and so forth - yes, there are people who perpetually proclaim doom and gloom and are never happier than when the market drops five points.

But I don't do that; I am a long-view person and I don't agonize because my short-term investments dropped a Ferrari's worth (or a steak dinner's worth, for that matter).

I'll just say what I said early on: this feels different. The mixed messages between the joy-joy indicators and the signs that some thing or things as yet not wholly recognized are wrong is disturbing, like subsonic rumbles on a Hawaiian beach.

I will be delighted if summer or 2020 comes and these feelings turn out to be completely wrong. But I don't get them very often, and even less so when there's just so much rosy-rose color around. So we'll see.
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Old Yesterday, 03:35 PM
 
Location: In a vehicle.
4,693 posts, read 2,929,019 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This is what I'm seeing on the street, despite rosy headlines.

I'm seeing the same thing at other restaurants, malls, discretionary places. What trends are you sporting?
Well, I finally joined a Credit Union as you suggested. Good grief, 7.75% rate for my balance transfers, I moved nearly $9,200 to a single card eliminating two at 19%. Then got 7.40% for a auto loan. I had to wait in line as there was 8 people waiting for loans and applications. (Note, that was November)

I'm seeing jobs going begging in Portland, OR. There's just not enough workers for the trades. There's companies having to wait another year due to the worker shortage. Hell bells, there's 3 new hotels going up along Mill Plain blvd which used to be an empty field 2 years ago. They're just now beginning to build what I suspect are commercial buildings also. those will be small office complexes or upscale watering holes.

I know that the Walmart is loving it as the Panda, SB Verizon, Wendy's, Cafe Yumm, are also. They are already seeing an uptick in business from the hotels. As an aside, I am seeing one hotel (Howard Johnson) that started building 17 months? ago and the damn thing just got windows in finally....Either they have labor issues, or something is really wrong with the construction company..

Housing? They are preparing the land for about 55 acres which I suspect will be a massive apartment complex. That will work with the retirement community they started building 1.5 years ago at the corner of Mill Plain and 136th ave.

My God the place has now 16? buildings and 3/4-4/5 full and there's 5 under construction right now. (seniorlivinginstyle.com for more info) If you do a google map, you'll just see an empty field, go to the website and you'll see they are huge.... I estimate 100-190 people per building.

In a stones throw from the Walmart I spent 7 months at, there's 2 mini malls installed, jiffy lube, goodwill, black rock....Plus they're developing the field to the right and behind the store as well.

Near the library, there's a future hospital planned. As for me, got a raise for position and promotion...Doing good and looking pretty good for the next 3.5 years. After that, I'll be chilling with time to spare.

I'm not seeing slowing, I see building at a frantic pace....
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Old Yesterday, 03:46 PM
 
Location: Florida
20,498 posts, read 8,663,332 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This is what I'm seeing on the street, despite rosy headlines.

1) Locally, residential loan originations have greatly declined. My mother works in residential loan origination for the biggest locally owned bank in my region. While I don't have a solid number, loan originations are way down from where they were this time last year, or even six months ago.

2) Local car dealerships are offering major discounts. More off MSRP than I've ever seen. Many are upping incentives for car trade-ins and buying used cars over KBB, which means there is more of a demand on the other end for used cars. Not necessarily a positive trend.

3) Most worrisome over the last few weeks. Discretionary spending type places all seem way down. Things seem to have petered out after the holidays.

I frequent restaurants and bars. Wednesday night is a fairly big night at most of the bars I frequent. I went to a restaurant tonight. The bar was maybe half full, and the dining room had maybe three tables filled at 6:00. Everyone appeared to be drinking the beer on special tonight.

I went to a brewery. While not packed on Wednesday night, the place is usually 2/3-3/4 full. There were only two other customers in there. I've never seen it that empty, even at lunch. The manager, who is a relative of the owner, said things have been weirdly slow for weeks.

I'm seeing the same thing at other restaurants, malls, discretionary places. What trends are you sporting?
It is difficult to determine in South Florida, as we are under siege every year from Thanksgiving through Easter. But, since you mention it, I have observed that it is noticeably quieter than last year. Still have the retired snowbirds and the foreign plates on the road, but the traffic, restaurants and stores have not been as packed as last year's season.

It could be that people are tired of Florida--usually after the first blizzard, we get a lot of people fleeing the cold. I do know a number of people going to Europe for a Spring vacation this year though, so everyone is not scrimping by.
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Old Yesterday, 04:06 PM
 
2,519 posts, read 2,207,716 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Nope, I already excepted people who run to spend the money on a credit card or from savings; "refund advances" are just more of the same.

The actual refund comes no faster than either I or SK said. However, we probably agree on the stupidity of most people who spend that money before they actually have it, at considerable cost in fees and so forth.
...Especially when a simple adjustment on employer withholdings would allow the taxpayer to have that refund throughout the year as they earn it instead of giving the feds an interest free loan.
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Old Yesterday, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Thailand
5,253 posts, read 2,506,394 times
Reputation: 9719
Quote:
Originally Posted by Themanwithnoname View Post
Y'all say there's not, (% people getting) but there's entire industries based on this
They aren't saying there's not people getting refunds in January, they are claiming it's not a "huge segment" that boosts January spending.

Anecdotally I rarely got W-2s until the very end of January (or early Feb), even if had a refund and filed immediately upon receiving it for the advance I would have struggled to spend it all in January unless there was a big ticket item I rushed out to buy right away. Fun fact = most people spend their refunds paying down debt. It's probably unlikely that many people whittle away a tax refund at a bar in January unless it was one hell a night.

The existence of industries that cater to advances on tax refunds doesn't get around the fact that most W-2s arrive too late to do much spending in January.
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