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Old Yesterday, 08:33 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
21,811 posts, read 16,029,212 times
Reputation: 25014

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This is what I'm seeing on the street, despite rosy headlines.

1) Locally, residential loan originations have greatly declined. My mother works in residential loan origination for the biggest locally owned bank in my region. While I don't have a solid number, loan originations are way down from where they were this time last year, or even six months ago.

2) Local car dealerships are offering major discounts. More off MSRP than I've ever seen. Many are upping incentives for car trade-ins and buying used cars over KBB, which means there is more of a demand on the other end for used cars. Not necessarily a positive trend.

3) Most worrisome over the last few weeks. Discretionary spending type places all seem way down. Things seem to have petered out after the holidays.

I frequent restaurants and bars. Wednesday night is a fairly big night at most of the bars I frequent. I went to a restaurant tonight. The bar was maybe half full, and the dining room had maybe three tables filled at 6:00. Everyone appeared to be drinking the beer on special tonight.

I went to a brewery. While not packed on Wednesday night, the place is usually 2/3-3/4 full. There were only two other customers in there. I've never seen it that empty, even at lunch. The manager, who is a relative of the owner, said things have been weirdly slow for weeks.

I'm seeing the same thing at other restaurants, malls, discretionary places. What trends are you sporting?
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Old Yesterday, 09:14 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
21,811 posts, read 16,029,212 times
Reputation: 25014
Quote:
Originally Posted by tigermomma View Post
As long as president bonespurs insists he is making america great again and that he just cannot stand to see anyone
get by, I think this is going to get worse.

Windbag authoritarianism delivered with impossible ultimatums never works for anyone under any circumstances.

We have a narcissist personality disorder in the white house playing chicken with other narcissist personality disorder
enablers assisting him. Citizens and powers that be in the economy know it and have no idea what bad surprises
await. Everyone stops spending because they have no faith in the future.

There is no winning in this losing era of playing chicken with people's livelihoods.

That is why any of Trump's previous business endeavors all went belly up. If it were not for The Apprentice, we
would not have this windbag dotard for president. The Republicans would have nominated someone of higher
caliber. Instead they went with higher tv ratings.
I'm not trying to be political.

With that said, things just seemed to have died since around the first of the year. Locally, it hasn't been a cold winter. We have virtually no federal jobs, so aren't directly impacted by the shut down in Washington.

What's scary is the bar crowds have died down. People drink in good times and bad. The fact that they aren't there is alarming to me.
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Old Yesterday, 09:20 PM
 
844 posts, read 415,404 times
Reputation: 1393
Real estate is clearly slowing. We know the uncertainty of the equities markets. People react to that by shutting down spending. Personally, I think real estate has a much bigger influence on consumer spending than the stock market.

As someone getting ready to sell a home and move to a new location, I wish I knew how bad itís going to get.
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Old Yesterday, 09:20 PM
 
10,983 posts, read 20,554,473 times
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Things always slow in the winter. NBD.
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Old Yesterday, 09:22 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
21,811 posts, read 16,029,212 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wheelsup View Post
Things always slow in the winter. NBD.
I'm a local resident. I know the patterns. Yes, there is a post-Christmas spending hangover. Restaurant crowds seem down across the area. Bars aren't doing business. People are hunkering down. It's not normal January sleepiness.
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Old Yesterday, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Tyler, Texas
187 posts, read 68,243 times
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I deleted my comment because it was political. Sorry about that.

I am getting very worried. I know I am not alone in my apprehension.

Very insightful post, SeriousConversation.
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Old Yesterday, 09:27 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
21,811 posts, read 16,029,212 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cabound1 View Post
Real estate is clearly slowing. We know the uncertainty of the equities markets. People react to that by shutting down spending. Personally, I think real estate has a much bigger influence on consumer spending than the stock market.

As someone getting ready to sell a home and move to a new location, I wish I knew how bad itís going to get.
Keep in mind where I am. I'm in Johnson City, TN. Small college metro. Economic base is a university and a regional health system. Not a lot of diversity, and no big price run-ups compared to hot areas. No crashes either.

Originations are down...massively. The local economy has always been challenged at providing decent employment, but there have been no significant negative local economic events vs. this time last year when sentiment was much different.
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Old Yesterday, 09:32 PM
 
191 posts, read 48,222 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This is what I'm seeing on the street, despite rosy headlines.

2) Local car dealerships are offering major discounts. More off MSRP than I've ever seen. Many are upping incentives for car trade-ins and buying used cars over KBB, which means there is more of a demand on the other end for used cars. Not necessarily a positive trend.
Where are those dealerships? Every dealer I've been to low balls you, the low end of KBB range for trade-ins. If you negotiate they bump up their offer slightly, but still the dealer wins every time. Depends on the brand too. Chevy offers huge discounts...what goes around comes around....their resale value is very poor. Honda offers very little discounts, but maintains one of the higher resale values.
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Old Yesterday, 09:34 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
21,811 posts, read 16,029,212 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matthew_MI View Post
Where are those dealerships? Every dealer I've been to low balls you, the low end of KBB range for trade-ins. If you negotiate they bump up their offer slightly, but still the dealer wins every time. Depends on the brand too. Chevy offers huge discounts...what goes around comes around....their resale value is very poor. Honda offers very little discounts, but maintains one of the higher resale values.
These are mainstream American dealerships. GM/Chrysler/Ford. The Honda dealerships are not offering many concessions.
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Old Yesterday, 10:32 PM
 
Location: 5,400 feet
2,349 posts, read 2,375,052 times
Reputation: 3090
As always, real estate prices and sales depend on the local market. Around here, demand remains high and prices continue to rise.

Also, nationally, mortgages apps are at a high.
https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com...98b7b192294d57
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