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Old 03-03-2019, 04:02 PM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
21,638 posts, read 38,690,813 times
Reputation: 22191

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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobspez View Post
They used to say if you fail to plan, you plan to fail. I also retired at 62. One thing I realized was that you can't afford to make a financial mistake in retirement.There's no time for do overs. I had a pretty good idea of what it would cost to retire and I was correct. ...
I had a pretty good idea of my projected costs when I retired at age 49. (No pension / no HC)

then...
1) Property taxes went up over 5x (same home, just more worn out) Currently >$46 / day, up from <$3 / day when I built the joint)
2) ALL my affordable Healthcare insurance options went away with the Affordable (?) Health Care Act (costs increased from $300 / month to $1700 / month in ONE year)

so... I 'adjusted' my income streams and asset positions.

Many yrs later, yet still a bit far from age 65 (Medicare)
Retirement assets are up ~ 30%, but I expect them to start declining soon and quickly. And nearly completely.

Objective: Live modestly, die with a < $5k for handling the estate / final needs . (already have the Funeral Co-op membership purchased / immediate cremation and burial (private)<$1000). Everything (anything) left over goes to charity.

As soon as I am gone... backfill, sell the dozer and backhoe, Party on.

I am very blessed.

It all could be gone tomorrow (Income, savings, health, life)

Poof... then it is OVER!
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:11 PM
 
Location: SoCal
11,510 posts, read 5,513,640 times
Reputation: 7985
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
average would mean half are lower and half are higher. no one is average.


Data released by the Social Security Administration in April showed that over 42 million American retirees receive Social Security checks totaling $59.6 billion every month. That averages out to a monthly payment of about $1,400 per person.

you can see that really is not very meaningful . some may get very little and some a whole lot and you average out to an amount no one gets
The average probably includes people take it at 62. Thatís maybe why. All the smarty pants think they will outsmart everybody by taking it at 62. The dumb one like myself will be taking at 70. If I was smart and take it at 62, I probably get about $400-$500 more than the average. However, Iím waiting because at 70, I will get over $41k. The best part is the larger your SS check, the less tax your state will take out of you, especially if you live in the states that donít tax SS. Why not make this the larger amount. Why box yourself in.
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:17 PM
 
68,168 posts, read 69,034,496 times
Reputation: 46027
i was blown away by my new york and ny city taxes when i did them today ... i payed under 800 in taxes ...

we had a 16k standard deduction ,, thousands in tax free interest from TLT AND SHY because they are treasuries . i had thousands in money market interest from my fidelity treasury money markets , no social security is taxed so over 40k was state and nyc tax free ,, my wifes nyc 22k pension is not taxed , and we got a 1600 dollar tax credit for having a ny state long term care partnership plan ....plus we did an ira for the two of us since i work one day a week and wiped out 13k in income
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:32 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,812 posts, read 13,762,180 times
Reputation: 14959
Quote:
Originally Posted by athena53 View Post
Yes, there is, but the study predicting insolvency by 2034 was a rigorous actuarial study and is based on the assumption that the system will continue as is.
It's hardly "rigorous."

It does not, for example, take into consideration the two or possibly three recessions that are likely to occur between now and 2034.

You are now in the second longest economic expansion in US history at 115 months.

The longest was 120 months, which theoretically you may tie in August 2019 and break in September 2019, if you make it that long.

The probability of a recession increases with each passing month, and once you cross the 120 month threshold, it increases even higher.

You will have a recession between now and 2020, and you will have a second recession before 2034.

The likelihood that the next recession will be a so-called "double-dip" recession is also very high, especially given that when the 120 month economic expansion ended with a recession, you went right back into a recession 9 months later, so that would be three recessions.

It's hardly "rigorous" too, because the Trustees have a long and distinguished track record of overestimating FICA payroll tax revenues, meaning their projected revenues are always less than actual revenues.

Additionally, their projections for 2019 are totally absurd, bordering on hallucinogenic fantasy.

They project revenues of $802.4 Billion in 2019 which is obscenely fantastical.

To even suggest that revenues will increase from $714.5 Billion to $802.4 Billion is sheer heresy.

That's an increase of $87.9 Billion and percent increase of 12.3%.



That has never happened in the whole history of Social Security. In fact, at no time ever has it even been close to that, or even half of that.

From year-to-year, FICA tax revenues generally increase by 3% to 5%, not 12.3%.

I have to ask how much heroin and LSD they were doing.

Because that is skewed, all their figures through 2027 are skewed, and instead of collecting a projected
$12.9 TRILLION in FICA revenues, they'll be lucky to get $8.7 TRILLION, which gives them a ~$4 TRILLION shortfall, and the program will be near collapse in 2027.


Quote:
Originally Posted by athena53 View Post
While I agree on Forbes (they once put words in my mouth in an article early in my career when I was young and naive), SS benefits haven't really kept up with inflation.
Since 2000, CPI-W has increased 47.8% and COLA has increased 41.4%.

That's not statistically significant.

CPI-U and CPI-W are taken from 83 of the 361 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and none of the 536 Mirco-Metropolitan Statistical Areas which are separate and apart from the 361 Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

In some of those 83 Metropolitan Statistical Areas surveyed for the CPI, prices have increased, but in others prices have not changed or have actually decreased.

The vast majority of retirees on Social Security profit from COLA, because prices have not changed or actually decreased, or the real change in prices is less than the calculated COLA amount.

A small percentage of retirees voluntarily choose to live in high Cost-of-Living areas, and if COLA doesn't cover it, then that's their own doing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by athena53 View Post
COLA is based on a particular CPI (CPI-W) that gives more weight to food, clothing, transportation expenses and "other goods and services" and less weight to housing, medical care and recreation. I don't need to tell you what's happened to the costs of medical care, and for many seniors that's a big hit.
Most Seniors are over-medicated or taking medications they don't really need.

They could alter their diet or exercise to avoid blood pressure or cholesterol medications, but they voluntarily choose not to do so, and I have no sympathy for them, nor is it necessary to make changes specifically to cater to them.
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:45 PM
 
68,168 posts, read 69,034,496 times
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genetics loads the gun and lifestyle pulls the trigger .. being a gym rate for 18 years now , eating pretty well and running 4 miles every other day i managed to stay off diabetes meds and cholesterol meds , so you can delay the inevitable .. but eventually genetics win ... i had to be put on a light dose of a statin 3 years ago and finally a very light dose of glimpride for my diabetes 6 months ago at age 66
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Old 03-03-2019, 05:27 PM
 
Location: SoCal
11,510 posts, read 5,513,640 times
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You might be on medicine sooner if you didn’t. Two of siblings on high blood pressure in their early 40s. Another when he’s approaching late 50s. I’m nearly 60 now but not taking it yet. I had a warning from my doctor, especially after I came back from a long vacation, so I quickly lose weight and I swam every single day. This year the weather is so bad, I have not swim a single day since Nov, but I’m not checking my blood pressure, the minute the weather is good, I’ll be back swimming. But in the mean time I do some sort of exercise but not as good as swimming.
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Old 03-03-2019, 07:44 PM
 
2,558 posts, read 1,830,152 times
Reputation: 4426
Quote:
Originally Posted by hulburt1 View Post
If this is the person I think it is.Look her up. They want to take all Ira and 401ks and use them as a annuity. When you die the Government takes the money.


On that note:


Beware! Withdrawals from IRA's and 401k's will (likely soon, I bet) fall into a different tax bracket. Around 2006 - 07 Congress was talking about taxing withdrawals from accounts comprised of non taxed income (IRA's, 401k's), at a rate higher than regular income. They were talking 60 - 70% tax on any withdrawal from the accounts with a net worth of over $100,000. The excuse? That's "wealth." So this would be a tax on "excessive wealth." Remember, because you paid no income tax on that income, that is not your money. They can do whatever they want with it. It was quickly moving up on the agenda when the Dems lost the House.


The party that dominated The House in 2007 is back! And there are now, way more members concerned with the redistribution of wealth this time, than there were in 2007. Time to start emptying out those accounts, paying whatever tax you have to pay today... if you haven't already.
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Old 03-03-2019, 07:53 PM
 
Location: SoCal
11,510 posts, read 5,513,640 times
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I think there will be riots if that’s the case.
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Old 03-03-2019, 08:07 PM
 
Location: Wasilla, AK
6,632 posts, read 3,651,924 times
Reputation: 13779
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
average would mean half are lower and half are higher. no one is average.

Actually, what you described is median, not mean (aka average).
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Old 03-03-2019, 08:17 PM
 
24,937 posts, read 32,027,675 times
Reputation: 30357
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

Most Seniors are over-medicated or taking medications they don't really need.

They could alter their diet or exercise to avoid blood pressure or cholesterol medications, but they voluntarily choose not to do so, and I have no sympathy for them, nor is it necessary to make changes specifically to cater to them.
That is certainly the case for some, but it is far from the case for all. Your genes deal cards that can't be traded in. I hope you are not dealt a bad hand.

I don't know any seniors that are over-medicated. I suspect that happens mostly in nursing homes.
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