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Old Yesterday, 08:06 AM
 
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So it's been 7.5 years since I had a sizable home improvement project. I still have well aged lumber left overs sitting in my garage. So finally I felt it is time to do something with it, so to the big box I went. After generally avoiding the place (Lowes) for all those years substantially higher prices just jump at you. Lumber prices doubled in 8 years, branded tools prices doubled or more, the rest Items I checked had less dramatic yet substantial price increases. There is no building boom of any kind in the area. 2 new homes were built within 20 miles radius of my home in the past 8 years.

For comparison my 401k still did not recover its value from December 2017. Bank interest rates are approaching zero at my local bank. So that pile of perfectly aged lumber that doubled its value in 7.5 years is most definitely the best investment of my life time. How could that happen? All I've heard in the past decade that inflation is somewhere between 0 and 2%, maybe 3% at most.

Going back to Trump economic "boom". Yep, local papers and craigslist are booming with ads for the jobs paying $12-16/hr, before the boom those jobs paid maybe $11-$15/hr. At the lower end wages are pretty much stagnant boom or no boom. Stagnant wages, doubling prices, something has to give. And yet "boom" is "booming". Perhaps people higher up the food chain do much better. Something must be booming. One more boom like this and a good chunk of population will pretty much catch up with Chinese sweat shop workers.
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Old Yesterday, 08:35 AM
 
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Branded tools have not doubled in cost in the last 7 years, the s&p 500 is up 6% since 12/2017 and since 12/2011 it’s up 156% with dividends reinvested, fdic insured savings can easily be found over 2%. I’m not sure on the price of lumber but I’d say there’s some pretty big flaws in your figures
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Old Yesterday, 09:27 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Branded tools have not doubled in cost in the last 7 years, the s&p 500 is up 6% since 12/2017 and since 12/2011 it’s up 156% with dividends reinvested, fdic insured savings can easily be found over 2%. I’m not sure on the price of lumber but I’d say there’s some pretty big flaws in your figures
Just for the sake of education and as bs meter I keep a small 401k fidelity account from my previous employer. It is split 40/60 between a managed fund and S&P index fund. I stopped contributing in September 2017. As of March 7th 2019 I am still $300 short of September 2017 value. Remember these are the economic boom times I could not break even on my 401k. I wonder what will happen when a recession will knock on a door?

I have an active 401k with a small firm investment clowns, the guys blow so much smoke from their arses trying to confuse you with phoney return on investment numbers and unnecessary bs, but if you dig in and sort through the nonsense you still lose money, as much as I want to get a company match I do not want to give it to the crooks. My lumber pile did so much better than my 401ks and it did not feed the parasites. Yes you can find CD accounts that pay 2% but not in the local banks. For all your emergency cash funds needs you can expect effective 0% interest paid to you, and few people can save more than that.

Branded tools I am interested in definitely got higher in price
and lower in quality, but I did not run statistical analysis so I will not make strict numerical claims. At the fresh glance prices are at the very least 50% higher across the board with some prices much more inflated. My point remains - investing money in long term use/shelf life items beats anything an average person like me can expect from banks and investment wizards.

Last edited by RememberMee; Yesterday at 09:36 AM..
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Old Yesterday, 10:31 AM
 
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If that’s what you believe, then direcr your investments to the lumber and tool industry?

Or you can just buy more lumber at retail...and see how those doubling every 8 year bets work out.
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Old Yesterday, 10:57 AM
 
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I'm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
If that’s what you believe, then direcr your investments to the lumber and tool industry?

Or you can just buy more lumber at retail...and see how those doubling every 8 year bets work out.
the word "belief" does not apply here. I have my 401ks, bank statements and maybe a few old receipts laying somewhere. I am a prole not an investor class. I have a very limited quantity of cash to play with. I could use that cash to buy into one investment scheme or another and if lucky my investments can out perform inflation which officially does not exist. Most likely it will not. Worse I can't even use those alleged gains (I am still waiting for) for anything without paiying taxes and fines. Or I can buy an item I know I will use and protect my money against inflation, it is something that banks no longer do. If I had more money than I could use the math would have been different.
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Old Yesterday, 11:15 AM
 
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Originally Posted by RememberMee View Post
Just for the sake of education and as bs meter I keep a small 401k fidelity account from my previous employer. It is split 40/60 between a managed fund and S&P index fund. I stopped contributing in September 2017. As of March 7th 2019 I am still $300 short of September 2017 value. Remember these are the economic boom times I could not break even on my 401k. I wonder what will happen when a recession will knock on a door?

I have an active 401k with a small firm investment clowns, the guys blow so much smoke from their arses trying to confuse you with phoney return on investment numbers and unnecessary bs, but if you dig in and sort through the nonsense you still lose money, as much as I want to get a company match I do not want to give it to the crooks. My lumber pile did so much better than my 401ks and it did not feed the parasites. Yes you can find CD accounts that pay 2% but not in the local banks. For all your emergency cash funds needs you can expect effective 0% interest paid to you, and few people can save more than that.

Branded tools I am interested in definitely got higher in price
and lower in quality, but I did not run statistical analysis so I will not make strict numerical claims. At the fresh glance prices are at the very least 50% higher across the board with some prices much more inflated. My point remains - investing money in long term use/shelf life items beats anything an average person like me can expect from banks and investment wizards.


This is just false. Less than two minutes online can get you started 2.2%+ fdic insured savings that can be transferred within a day to your local checking account. Also with relative ease a normal person can buy spy/voo cheaply or free and over the last 7 years had a return of 150%. Just because you arenít aware of the ease doesnít make your statements true
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Old Yesterday, 11:18 AM
 
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Originally Posted by RememberMee View Post
Jinvesting money in long term use/shelf life items beats anything an average person like me can expect from banks and investment wizards.
nonsense!
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Old Yesterday, 11:51 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
This is just false. Less than two minutes online can get you started 2.2%+ fdic insured savings that can be transferred within a day to your local checking account. Also with relative ease a normal person can buy spy/voo cheaply or free and over the last 7 years had a return of 150%. Just because you aren’t aware of the ease doesn’t make your statements true
2.2% saving rates are offered by a few obscure online banking establishments. Do you have an account with them? You make 2.2% saving rate to sound as a norm. It is not. Less obscure online banks offer saving rates at (well) below 2%. Generally you have to open a money market account to have 2%+. Ok, 2% compounded over 8 years gives you whopping 17% return. So my statement remains, online banks or local ones, neither protects your money against inflation.

As for investments, that's so what if. What if you make the wrong bets? Most proles cannot afford online bets anyhow and go with institutionalized investment schemes like 401k. As I said my guinea fidelity 401k fund just sits there, for the past 1.5 years I've lost just $300. Reminder we live in the boom times. A miracle is needed at this point for that 401k to grow 150% by 2027 in non inflation adjusted dollars.

My lumber pile investment 7 years ago beat banks, beat 401ks, it even beat your savvy investors that raked 150% returns in the past 7 years.

Last edited by RememberMee; Yesterday at 12:03 PM..
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Old Yesterday, 12:01 PM
 
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
nonsense!
So genius tell us how you doubled your money in the past 8 years?
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Old Yesterday, 12:10 PM
 
68,336 posts, read 69,127,841 times
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Originally Posted by RememberMee View Post
So genius tell us how you doubled your money in the past 8 years?
commercial real estate here in manhattan . anything else you want to know ?
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