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Old 04-05-2019, 02:08 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
5,914 posts, read 2,093,570 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRational View Post
This was a great post. Scarily accurate. Thanks.
Pointing out that geopolitics tends to be circular, and that in times of pending crisis governments turn towards the authoritarian? Nice observation, but completely missing the point that this is a symptom and a reaction, not a primary force or a cause.

The politics of the current generation are about to add chapters to the history books. Familiar chapters. I wasn't even including that in any of my comments; it's a duh to anyone who's really paying attention. You can't rearrange all of Earth's resources in (more or less) the blink of an eye, with a population almost five times larger than the last big global upheaval, and expect nations and political systems to sit around fussing over filibusters and protocol and minority rights.
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Old 04-05-2019, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Near Sacramento
632 posts, read 333,485 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rabaman View Post
... So, where will they move next?

Space...the final frontier!!!
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:37 PM
 
684 posts, read 171,106 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Yep. People only capable of unskilled and semi-skilled repetitive task jobs will continue to get slaughtered. Critical thought jobs will always be in high demand but that excludes easily the bottom half of the population and more probably the bottom 90%.


There will always be unskilled & semi-skilled jobs where it's too expensive to automate them but there will be an increasingly large fraction of the population competing for those jobs. This is the kind of environment where Marxist and Socialist kinds of ideas prosper. In a democracy, the unwashed masses will eventually vote themselves out of poverty. Maybe not for another 20 or 30 years but the trend doesn't look good
I agree with the general principle of your post, but find issue with about half of it. Here:

1) "People only capable of unskilled and semi-skilled repetitive task jobs will continue to get slaughtered." This is only true in fairly recent US history. For about the last 70-100 years it's been very possible to easily find unskilled to semi-skilled work that would enable one to be in the middle class, and, for at least the first half to three-quarters of that period, to do it on only one household income.

2) "There will always be unskilled & semi-skilled jobs where it's too expensive to automate" As automation becomes more and more prevalent, this will become less and less true. There are too many examples I could go into here, but the reality is there is a tipping point everywhere, and we are near it in most places. How many McD's jobs have been eliminated by auto kiosks? How many garbage handlers jobs have been eliminated by handing all households a universal trashcan and having an auto-arm truck pick them up?

This is more a case of inertia than anything. And, if there is one thing people have been shown to be willing to pay for these days, even those of the lower class who may be biting their nose to spite their face, it is convenience.

3)"In a democracy, the unwashed masses will eventually vote themselves out of poverty.":

A) We're not a democracy. We are a representative republic, where there are vast roadblocks to the common man actually getting what he wants/needs through the voting process.

B) From the Roman Empire on, the way the vast majority of long-term empires survived was by having a very large middle class. Those people are fat and happy, content with their "bread and circuses." The second you have a bunch of dissatisfied, poor people is the second you have a revolution situation; not a "let's vote these bums out" situation.
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
5,914 posts, read 2,093,570 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djsuperfly View Post
1) "People only capable of unskilled and semi-skilled repetitive task jobs will continue to get slaughtered." This is only true in fairly recent US history. For about the last 70-100 years it's been very possible to easily find unskilled to semi-skilled work that would enable one to be in the middle class, and, for at least the first half to three-quarters of that period, to do it on only one household income.
You seem to be arguing this as a present condition. Unskilled workers haven't been middle class since at least the 1970s, and then it was only marginally. Single-income families that could be considered, if not middle class, at least stable and above the poverty line, required a skilled or at least trade-educated worker, or union wage levels.
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Old 04-05-2019, 04:01 PM
 
7,458 posts, read 4,795,169 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djsuperfly View Post
...For about the last 70-100 years it's been very possible to easily find unskilled to semi-skilled work that would enable one to be in the middle class, and, for at least the first half to three-quarters of that period, to do it on only one household income.

...From the Roman Empire on, the way the vast majority of long-term empires survived was by having a very large middle class. Those people are fat and happy, content with their "bread and circuses." The second you have a bunch of dissatisfied, poor people is the second you have a revolution situation; not a "let's vote these bums out" situation.
With all due respect, I couldn't disagree more. The Roman Empire was an unapologetic aristocracy. First, how many people within the Roman ambit were even citizens, as opposed to second-rate whatevers? Second, how many were slaves? Third, of those who were free and who were citizens, how many had even basic right of self-determination, such as owning real-estate, or access to basic education? Indeed, arguably the entire empire existed for the personal pleasure of a few hundred Senatorial families, who enjoyed privileges of codified superiority over everyone else.

A plurality middle-class, let alone a majority one, is a 20th century creation. Until the 19th century, systematic malnutrition, of the sort that we see in Yemen today, was ubiquitous worldwide. Until the advent of the 20th century, mass-voting, even among adult men of the "right" race, was unusual.

One might argue that the period 1880-1980 was anomalous in history, in having a plurality middle class in the West. Far from being the logical evolution of Man's moral self-awareness, it was a happy accident. Today we take the idea that "all Men are created equal" as being "self-evident", at least in theory. Aristotle thought that this was sheer nonsense. Mainstream political philosophers of the 22nd or 23rd century might again prefer Aristotle to Jefferson or Locke.

Quietude's three horsemen - Climate Change, Overpopulation and AI - just may be the catalyst for returning humanity to the 5000+ years of recorded history prior to 1900. We may find, in the world of 2400 AD, that most people are not only disenfranchised and reduced to penury, but are kept as toys and pets - in cruelty that would make the depredations of the American or Islamic slave-trade look benign.

Or maybe not. We could just muddle along, more or less as we have been. For millennia. We may eventually pull our collective heads out of our collective posteriors, make manned deep-space exploration priority #1, and colonize the galaxy, like in Asimov's Foundation. Humanity might have billions of years of history ahead of it... plurality middle class, or otherwise.
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Old 04-05-2019, 05:12 PM
 
Location: Ohio
19,097 posts, read 13,884,275 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
Quietude's three horsemen - Climate Change, Overpopulation and AI - just may be the catalyst for returning humanity to the 5000+ years of recorded history prior to 1900.
You're going to see nothing happen very slowly, because that poster is clueless.

Climate change has no bearing on anything.

Overpopulation is not a problem and will never be a problem.

You have zero understanding of the how's and why's of population, and even less understanding of the impact of Affluence.

Affluence is the reason global population will never exceed 16-17 Billion, flat-line and then decline.

You've never been in a 3rd or 4th World State. Never spent 4 hours a day getting water so you have something to drink, because there's no coffee, no tea, no Kool-Aid, no soda-pops, and no sporty fruit drinks.

You drink water, or you drink your own urine, or cow or goat urine, because there's nothing else to drink.

You've never engaged in subsistence farming and probably have no idea what it is.

50% of the people on Earth have never made or received a telephone call, because they don't have telephones or cellular service.

Those conditions necessitate large populations.

The good news is, once China, India and Russia develop those countries with roads, running water, electricity, natural gas lines, sewage lines, telephone and cellular service, because the US and UK refuse to permit the investments, their populations will decline over 4 to 6 decades to a point where their birth-rates are zero, if not negative.

That's how Affluence works.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
The further rise of automation and the coming rise of AI will certainly create jobs... but vanishingly few in the areas in which they eliminate jobs, and not many more in the general tier of jobs replaced. While warehouse workers might be able to lateral to some equivalent field - but probably only a fraction of those displaced - no significant number of them are going to be retrained as supervisors or maintenance or developers.
The implementation of Ai will be so slow, you won't even notice it. Warehouse workers don't need to be retrained as supervisors or maintenance or developers, because there's plenty of other fields.

The lowest level of workers are actually immune to AI. They're also immune to automation to a great extent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Will climate change create jobs? Probably, but not nearly as many as it displaces, other than in bottom-end labor as populations are relocated to survivable areas.
Climate change is not going to displace any jobs. Initially, it will actually create jobs.

The new results from the NEEM ice core drilling project in northwest Greenland, led by the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen show that the climate in Greenland was around 8 degrees C warmer than today during the last interglacial period, the Eemian period, 130,000 to 115,000 thousand years ago.

https://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/news/n...e-of-the-past/

8C is 14.4F.

It's called "science."

What science says is that the Greenland Ice Sheet always melts during an Inter-Glacial Period. Not only does the Greenland Ice Sheet melt, the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet also melts.

In at least some of the 8 previous Inter-Glacial Periods, the Eastern Antarctic Ice Sheet has undergone substantial melting as well, most notably during MIS-5 and MIS-11.

The sea level always rises during an Inter-Glacial Period, because that's what's supposed to happen, and it would happen whether we existed or not, because it always happens and there's never been a single time when it didn't happen.

Sea level rise is nearly imperceptible. As it does rise, insurance companies will either refuse to insure select areas or insurance will become cost-prohibitive.

When that happens, finance companies will stop issuing mortgages and loans for residential, retail, commercial or industrial development in those areas.

The good news is finance companies will be issuing mortgages and loans for development inland away from affected areas, as households and business and industry trickle away from affected areas over decades, and that will spur economic development.

There will be no mass migrations, only a trickle over a long period of time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Just as one facet of one problem, you realize that in 20-25 years the 1930s Dust Bowl will be a forgotten forerunner of the Interior US Desert?
You realize that's a scientific fail, right?

Without exception, without fail, the Earth gets wetter as it gets warmer.

At no time ever in Earth's existence has it ever been warm and dry. It's always warm and wet.

The Earth historically gets drier only when it gets cooler, like during an Ice Age.

Your Dust Bowl fantasy is contrary to historical scientific facts.
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Old 04-06-2019, 10:52 AM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
5,914 posts, read 2,093,570 times
Reputation: 9197
Ah, yes, it wouldn't be C-D without the perfesser to come along and read textbooks and old newspapers to us, very slowly. Thanks!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
You're going to see nothing happen very slowly, because that poster is clueless.

Climate change has no bearing on anything.

Overpopulation is not a problem and will never be a problem.

Your Dust Bowl fantasy is contrary to historical scientific facts.
But I will say you have an absolutely master-class grasp of "clueless."
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Old 04-06-2019, 11:45 AM
 
7,458 posts, read 4,795,169 times
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While it's amusing to observe this mud-slinging, ultimately it advances nobody's point. But it does prompt one, admittedly highly sardonic observation.... suppose that the doomsday-prognosticators are right, and things become unbelievably bad. Earth becomes so poisoned and mismanaged, that it's no longer fit for human habitation. Humans go extinct. Is that... an entirely lamentable loss?
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Old 04-06-2019, 12:07 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
5,914 posts, read 2,093,570 times
Reputation: 9197
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
While it's amusing to observe this mud-slinging, ultimately it advances nobody's point. But it does prompt one, admittedly highly sardonic observation.... suppose that the doomsday-prognosticators are right, and things become unbelievably bad. Earth becomes so poisoned and mismanaged, that it's no longer fit for human habitation. Humans go extinct. Is that... an entirely lamentable loss?
Yes.

But that's not the outcome - Earth will survive, most of its ecosystems and resources will survive and humanity will survive. That's the rock the smug crowd stands on, and the point the panickers overstate; they're both wrong.

With respect to climate change alone, what's going to happen over the next century is that God or Darkseid or Douglas Adams is going to pick up Earth and shake it like a snowglobe. EVERYTHING will be pushed around - weather, arable zones, coastlines, ecosystems. The result may be a planet no less livable, with no (long term) less diversity of life... but as the occasional hurricane or earthquake can cause global disruption of human activities, trying to imagine global disruptions of what's outside the windows is probably impossible. Imagine the disruptions of the great drought and the Dustbowl... worldwide. Not all caused by aridity, but by aridity in formerly arable zones, massive rainfall in areas now measured in a few inches per year, vast warming of chill and temperate zones, global storms of the kind we've just started seeing, the loss of quite a few coastal cities... and arable zones across the northern shores of Canada and Russia, and possibly parts of Antarctica.

There will, of course, be absolutely no disruption to nations, populations, treaties, trade, energy production, and manufacture of iPhones, so you can just ignore all of the above and go back to sleep.

Because, as our learned colleague has noted at length, none of this has ever happened and it's thus of course nonsense - clueless nonsense, yet - to claim it will.
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Old 04-06-2019, 12:12 PM
 
7,458 posts, read 4,795,169 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
... EVERYTHING will be pushed around - weather, arable zones, coastlines, ecosystems. The result may be a planet no less livable, with no (long term) less diversity of life... but as the occasional hurricane or earthquake can cause global disruption of human activities, trying to imagine global disruptions of what's outside the windows is probably impossible. Imagine the disruptions of the great drought and the Dustbowl... worldwide. Not all caused by aridity, but by aridity in formerly arable zones, massive rainfall in areas now measured in a few inches per year, vast warming of chill and temperate zones, global storms of the kind we've just started seeing, the loss of quite a few coastal cities... and arable zones across the northern shores of Canada and Russia, and possibly parts of Antarctica.
We have a frequent-poster in the Ohio forums, who is convinced that climate-change will result in "climate refugees" moving to Ohio... that is, as other places in America become unbearably hot, or inhospitably dry, or as Miami and even NYC submerge into the ocean, and Atlanta becomes Atlantis, both the hicks from the South and the hipsters from California and the banksters from NYC and Boston will all flock to Ohio. So, hot tip: buy Ohio real estate, while prices are still reasonable. Incidentally, I have some acreage for sale.
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