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Old 04-06-2019, 09:23 PM
 
685 posts, read 172,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
With all due respect, I couldn't disagree more. The Roman Empire was an unapologetic aristocracy.
Sure, but:

"In the introductory chapter, Mayer engages debates on the Roman economy and society, adopting Max Weber’s notion of status group and “social class,” defined as a group of individuals who “share similar economic opportunities, and, at the same time, social and cultural conditions” (2). In so doing, Mayer argues that the Roman middle class had its own set of values and forms of cultural expression, distinct from the aristocracy (and therefore not in imitation of it). This middle class was quite sizeable, leading him to observe that it produced “the bulk of the archaeological evidence from Roman cities”

https://www.ajaonline.org/book-review/1681
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Old 04-06-2019, 10:08 PM
 
Location: "Silicon Valley" (part of San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA)
3,985 posts, read 2,828,218 times
Reputation: 1867
Well, AI won't replace jobs that require consciousness and human judgement. For example, while a computer might be able to determine that a given scan might have detected cancer, a human is still going to have to review it, and the services of a human doctor are going to be required to judge which is the best course of treatment. We don't know if AI cars will ever be able to fully replace human drivers; for example, some weather conditions will make the car unable to receive a GPS signal or detect objects using LIDAR (RADAR will work in rain but it has a lower resolution because the wavelength is longer).


Any job that is based on physical labor rather than intellect is highly subject to being replaced by AI...which will put millions of people out of work, temporarily. But it should produce other jobs.

It does mean we have to get better about re-training (for free).
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Old 04-06-2019, 10:39 PM
 
7,478 posts, read 4,802,008 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
At its most basic level, AI distinguishes between A and B -- or, if you prefer, State A and State B. This can be extremely valuable to mankind, so I don't want to diminish it.

"This mamogram shows evidence of cancer, that one does not." ...
While these sorts of decisions are indeed eminently useful, they’re not AI. They can be programmed with If-Then statements and For-Do loops in Fortran, circa 1970. The modern part of the implementation would be accurate and compact sensors, networked together, and the computing-power to handle lots of data quickly. At most, what you've presented here is "expert systems".

True AI wouldn’t merely play chess, run networks of telescopes to find earth-like exoplanets, calculate optimal stock-trading strategies, target swing-voters most receptive to a political message, or even perform surgery on wounded soldiers in the battlefield. It would contemplate the meaning and essence of what it’s doing. It would question and advocate for its place in the world. It would pose and attempt to answer moral questions, ethical questions, metaphysical questions… and it would write eloquently about them.

True AI isn’t an artificial human; it is eventually an artificial God. It wouldn’t just have quadrillions more “neural” connections than any human brain. It would attain true knowledge, of the sort that eluded not only Plato or Augustine or Kant or Hegel, but Buddha or Jesus. It would be limited only by the fundamental constants of nature, such as the speed of light, or the universal gravitation constant, or Planck’s constant… until, perhaps, it figured out how to alter the universe to change these constants, or to create a universe anew.

A robotic taxi-driver, census-taker, hospice-nurse or tax-accountant isn’t really AI. It’s just a very powerful machine with sophisticated sensors that recognizes patterns and adjusts its decisions until some optimal outcome is reached.
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Old 04-07-2019, 08:02 AM
 
1,136 posts, read 239,770 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Wouldn’t climate change present massive job opportunities? If the challenges are so great, and I agree they are, that creates tremendous demand for those who can provide the solutions?
Possibly.

Or, it might be as simple as injection of sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere, simulating the effect we saw back on June 15, 1991 when Mt. Pinatubo erupted, sending an estimated 19,000,000 tons of various aerosols and dust into the stratosphere. This reflected back into outer space some of the sun's solar radiation, thereby lowering the atmospheric temperature of Earth by about 1 degree F for the following three years.

Indeed, Nathan Myhrvold has even patented such an approach using weather balloons tethered to the ground at the North and South Poles with hollow tubes (think: garden hoses) attached to aerosol generators. Then, just titrate the quantity of dust sent up until the earth stays at the temperature we want.

The above solution wouldn't generate many jobs.
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Old 04-07-2019, 08:16 AM
 
1,136 posts, read 239,770 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
It's called "science."
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Old 04-07-2019, 08:20 AM
 
1,136 posts, read 239,770 times
Reputation: 1861
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
We have a frequent-poster in the Ohio forums, who is convinced that climate-change will result in "climate refugees" moving to Ohio... that is, as other places in America become unbearably hot, or inhospitably dry, or as Miami and even NYC submerge into the ocean, and Atlanta becomes Atlantis, both the hicks from the South and the hipsters from California and the banksters from NYC and Boston will all flock to Ohio. So, hot tip: buy Ohio real estate, while prices are still reasonable. Incidentally, I have some acreage for sale.
I shudder to think how bad the rest of the country would be for people to, you know, voluntarily move to Ohio. Putting aside, of course, members of the Federal Witness Protection Program.
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Old 04-07-2019, 08:29 AM
 
1,136 posts, read 239,770 times
Reputation: 1861
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
While these sorts of decisions are indeed eminently useful, they’re not AI. They can be programmed with If-Then statements and For-Do loops in Fortran, circa 1970.
In theory, given a sufficiently intelligent set of programmers, yes. But none existed then or now. Instead, we've learned to train an AI system by having it examine millions upon millions of cases - much like HBS does with budding executives, but of course more extensively and efficiently.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
True AI wouldn’t merely play chess... It would contemplate the meaning and essence of what it’s doing. It would question and advocate for its place in the world. It would pose and attempt to answer moral questions, ethical questions, metaphysical questions… and it would write eloquently about them.

True AI isn’t an artificial human; it is eventually an artificial God. It wouldn’t just have quadrillions more “neural” connections than any human brain. It would attain true knowledge, of the sort that eluded not only Plato or Augustine or Kant or Hegel, but Buddha or Jesus. It would be limited only by the fundamental constants of nature, such as the speed of light, or the universal gravitation constant, or Planck’s constant… until, perhaps, it figured out how to alter the universe to change these constants, or to create a universe anew.
Nice trick there... defining the question in terms of your answer to it.
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Old 04-07-2019, 08:31 AM
 
1,136 posts, read 239,770 times
Reputation: 1861
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Ah, yes, it wouldn't be C-D without the perfesser to come along and read textbooks and old newspapers to us, very slowly. Thanks!


But I will say you have an absolutely master-class grasp of "clueless."
Ah, yes, it wouldn't be C-D without someone bested in an argument turning to attack those he cannot out think.
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Old 04-07-2019, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
5,987 posts, read 2,109,764 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
Ah, yes, it wouldn't be C-D without someone bested in an argument turning to attack those he cannot out think.
Quoting how it used to be at great length is neither an argument nor thinking. It is a primitive form of response AI.
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Old 04-08-2019, 09:47 AM
 
4,931 posts, read 2,581,739 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRational View Post
I keep hearing that word used.
I do not think it means what you think it does.
Yup, and now what is the health and solvency of Social Security like at this moment in time?

Think Truman would politically throw his name behind it now days?
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