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Old 04-08-2019, 06:49 PM
 
8,710 posts, read 3,804,462 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
The fed pumped unprecedented trillions in to the economy and the best we can get is about 2% gdp growth and less than 2% inflation.. now that is a reason to worry
Not! The Fed created $T's and then swapped for banks Treasuries, creating large amounts of excess bank reserves. Only a small portion of all that new money made it out into the general economy as demands stayed weak for years post 2008 crash. Now with unwinding....

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCSRESNS

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAST
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Old 04-08-2019, 06:50 PM
 
8,710 posts, read 3,804,462 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tickyul View Post
All that QE-money, it just was not adequate to create a neato enough economy......now there is rumblings of a rate-cut, LOL.
QE was weak stuff. It did help lower interest rates which at least was in the right direction for improving on the recession.
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Old 04-08-2019, 07:34 PM
 
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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^lowered interest rates for some people or circumstances. My major bank MC and Visa Credit cards are 27% apr. FICO 720-740 and saving accts are just a bold line above 0 interest. Which is why I trade stocks and hold real estate.
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Old 04-09-2019, 05:51 AM
 
Location: Cincinnati near
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A lot of dollar demand is driven by fear rather than fundamentals. A number of my Latin American friends/in-laws/colleagues (in Panama/Argentina/Nicaragua, respectively) buy dollars with every paycheck the way I buy equities, even with the risk of inflation. When taking out the difference in depreciation between their local currency and the dollar, they see gains of a sort. The "returns" are lower but if they need to suddenly relocate they are less likely to take a catastrophic loss.

If the FED "pulls out" more money, dollar speculators celebrate but banks loan less money, driving up the cost of debt and stifling economic growth.
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Old Today, 07:24 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
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Yes, the tightening tends to hit Latin America very hard. It's been interesting watching the banking stocks gyrate with the Fed motions.

Argentina and Brazil both have rightish leaders at the moment. While Argentina's been hobbled by near financial collapse, they've been playing nicely with the IMF. Brazil has been long term unsustainable due to their unaffordable pension promises, but if they are able to successfully get this reformed, the continent has a real opportunity to be the next growth play. Even bigger bonus if Venezuela can get started on a path to becoming a country again.
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