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Old Yesterday, 08:34 AM
 
500 posts, read 87,339 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duke944 View Post
This $244 trillion debt represents over three times the global GDP. I'm speechless to elaborate on my thoughts, other than to say God help us.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-faster-growth
It will lead to a large-scale global war and currency resets. '08-'09 would have been the start of Great Depression 2.0. Instead central banks around the world have injected trillions in artificial liquidity and manipulated interest rates to record low levels for the past 10 years or so to keep things propped up. This has caused even more debt to be leveraged against an already failing system. None of what the central banks did actually addressed any root problems, and have actually made things worse beneath the surface. A LOT of people are going to get wiped out.

I am long UUP and the dollar right now, and once the dollar has a nice surge will be switching over to gold. I have been long stocks for years but sold everything recently except for a few really beaten down plays like KHC.
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Old Yesterday, 08:44 AM
 
69,467 posts, read 70,016,385 times
Reputation: 47053
Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
It will lead to a large-scale global war and currency resets. '08-'09 would have been the start of Great Depression 2.0. Instead central banks around the world have injected trillions in artificial liquidity and manipulated interest rates to record low levels for the past 10 years or so to keep things propped up. This has caused even more debt to be leveraged against an already failing system. None of what the central banks did actually addressed any root problems, and have actually made things worse beneath the surface. A LOT of people are going to get wiped out.

I am long UUP and the dollar right now, and once the dollar has a nice surge will be switching over to gold. I have been long stocks for years but sold everything recently except for a few really beaten down plays like KHC.
why not just do something like the 4x4 permanent portfolio if you believe your predictions .

to me it makes no sense betting on "this time is different " and hurting your longer term performance ... just use a portfolio that thrives in good and bad times and don't rule out bad stuff , plan for it , allow for it ....

nothing has cost investors more money then thinking "this time is different "
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Old Yesterday, 09:39 AM
 
2,542 posts, read 1,627,549 times
Reputation: 5479
Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
It will lead to a large-scale global war and currency resets. '08-'09 would have been the start of Great Depression 2.0. Instead central banks around the world have injected trillions in artificial liquidity and manipulated interest rates to record low levels for the past 10 years or so to keep things propped up. This has caused even more debt to be leveraged against an already failing system. None of what the central banks did actually addressed any root problems, and have actually made things worse beneath the surface. A LOT of people are going to get wiped out.

I am long UUP and the dollar right now, and once the dollar has a nice surge will be switching over to gold. I have been long stocks for years but sold everything recently except for a few really beaten down plays like KHC.
Who is going to be fighting in this global war?
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Old Yesterday, 09:51 AM
 
Location: Riding a rock floating through space
1,527 posts, read 422,498 times
Reputation: 3915
Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
It will lead to a large-scale global war and currency resets. '08-'09 would have been the start of Great Depression 2.0. Instead central banks around the world have injected trillions in artificial liquidity and manipulated interest rates to record low levels for the past 10 years or so to keep things propped up. This has caused even more debt to be leveraged against an already failing system. None of what the central banks did actually addressed any root problems, and have actually made things worse beneath the surface. A LOT of people are going to get wiped out.

I am long UUP and the dollar right now, and once the dollar has a nice surge will be switching over to gold. I have been long stocks for years but sold everything recently except for a few really beaten down plays like KHC.
This is what I see also, a large scale global war and fiat spiraling into a value of nothing. Since I see no way to save the situation, it makes me feel hopeless and sad, dreading what's to come and waiting for the shoe to drop. I don't feel this way just for myself, but for everyone - even those in foreign countries I'll never meet. It's easy to just say don't worry about things you can't control and just be happy, but doing it is not so easy. I think it's better to live in denial with your head in the sand, saying things will be fine forever and let it all fall apart to your surprise, but that ship has sailed as I read too much.
I knew when Reagan started running up the deficit, paying for all the tax breaks and military toys with fresh fiat printed out of thin air that this was the beginning of the end. It's taken a long time, but I think we are finally seeing the last chapter of the results of moving off the gold standard.
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Old Yesterday, 11:15 AM
 
2,542 posts, read 1,627,549 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duke944 View Post
This is what I see also, a large scale global war and fiat spiraling into a value of nothing. Since I see no way to save the situation, it makes me feel hopeless and sad, dreading what's to come and waiting for the shoe to drop. I don't feel this way just for myself, but for everyone - even those in foreign countries I'll never meet. It's easy to just say don't worry about things you can't control and just be happy, but doing it is not so easy. I think it's better to live in denial with your head in the sand, saying things will be fine forever and let it all fall apart to your surprise, but that ship has sailed as I read too much.
I knew when Reagan started running up the deficit, paying for all the tax breaks and military toys with fresh fiat printed out of thin air that this was the beginning of the end. It's taken a long time, but I think we are finally seeing the last chapter of the results of moving off the gold standard.
The dollar is generally the standard that other currencies float against. Do you expect all currencies to somehow tank? Or which one is going to fight against the fed and other major central banks and win?

Again...what would this world war look like? Between who? With what objective? And how could those objectives be achieved without the losing side going nuclear in desperation?
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Old Yesterday, 12:48 PM
 
2,725 posts, read 679,235 times
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Can someone tell me why there doesn't appear to be one single country that doesn't have a national debt?

Is consumer debt part of this calculation, or separate?

If only a reflection of a country-country balance sheet, could it be used as a "if you think it's bad with us here, see what happens to your country's trade without us" posturing / manipulation?
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Old Yesterday, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Riding a rock floating through space
1,527 posts, read 422,498 times
Reputation: 3915
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
The dollar is generally the standard that other currencies float against. Do you expect all currencies to somehow tank? Or which one is going to fight against the fed and other major central banks and win?

Again...what would this world war look like? Between who? With what objective? And how could those objectives be achieved without the losing side going nuclear in desperation?
I don't know the exact answers to the questions, the only thing I know for sure is that this ever increasing debt is both unfixable and unsustainable.
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Old Yesterday, 01:14 PM
 
2,542 posts, read 1,627,549 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddm2k View Post
Can someone tell me why there doesn't appear to be one single country that doesn't have a national debt?

Is consumer debt part of this calculation, or separate?

If only a reflection of a country-country balance sheet, could it be used as a "if you think it's bad with us here, see what happens to your country's trade without us" posturing / manipulation?
Because fiat money is based on debt. Without debt, there is no money. Money is borrowed into existence.

So, in essence, the money to pay off all debt plus interest doesn’t exist. Overall debt will increase.

So goes the joke: “Central banks pretend to create real money, while governments pretend they’ll pay them back”.

“Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin. The bankers own the earth. Take it (the earth) away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with a flick of a pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again.” Sir Josiah stamp.

Last edited by Thatsright19; Yesterday at 01:28 PM..
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Old Yesterday, 02:29 PM
 
Location: equator
3,325 posts, read 1,430,168 times
Reputation: 8173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tn_eddy View Post
And it doesn't seem to slow govt spending up one lick, does it ? As long as they run a printing press, and there are enough idiots in the world that accept what they print as 'money', the game will go on.
Printing press? I doubt there is enough paper money printed to match the debt...
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Old Yesterday, 05:09 PM
 
Location: Ohio
19,220 posts, read 13,929,919 times
Reputation: 15392
Quote:
Originally Posted by duke944 View Post
This $244 trillion debt represents over three times the global GDP. I'm speechless to elaborate on my thoughts, other than to say God help us.
I'm guessing that doesn't include unfunded liabilities.

Britain's unfunded liabilities through 2040, meaning what they'll have to pay for pension and health care benefits is 75% of their GDP.

France also has very high liabilities, and they recently took actions. France slashed pensions from 50% to 37.5%, then raised the retirement age, then increase the number of years need to qualify for pensions by 7 years and 8 years for those born 1973 or later.

Americans only gave to work 35 years, but French now have to work 42 or 43 years (depending on date of birth).

And still, France's liabilities are at 85% of GDP.

France will most likely slash pensions again from 37.5% to 32.5% or 32.0% in order to pay for it.

That's with even higher taxes.

Britain is going to have to increase taxes and cut, reduce or eliminate pension and health care benefits to pay for it.

I feel terribly for the Italians, because they're at 300% of GDP. Italy will have to have massive tax increases and massive cuts to pensions and health care to pay for it.

Germany claims its unfunded liabilities are only 80% of GDP, but a number of independent sources, including the Market Economy Foundation and the EU Central Bank put it at 276% and 228% of GDP respectively.

Germany will need massive tax increases or slash pensions and healthcare or both.

Unlike the US, the EU limits debt to a percentage of GDP, but I wouldn't be shocked if the EU throws that out the window in order to spend excessively to meet their unfunded liabilities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
And what are the global assets to go with that debt?
Not all assets can be liquefied.

Those assets do include military aircraft, naval vessels, armored and other military vehicles, plus other military equipment.

I hope you're not suggesting that States will sell off the radars at their civilian airports to pay down debt. It might get quite messy in the skies.

Worse than that, assets cannot be liquefied if no one's buying because they don't have any money.
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