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Old 05-12-2019, 12:18 PM
 
1,169 posts, read 407,634 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
crooks, the whole lot of em... they are bigger and badder than ever right now.

Student loans, auto loans, and bad mortgages on un-affordable homes are the next trifecta to pop.
There is a great difference between mortgage standards in 2007 and now.
No more NINJA loans, negative amortization loans, or lending to subprime borrowers ad nauseum.
I'm not concerned about mortgage debt.


But the amount of leverage and other debt outstanding both privately and publicly held (State debt, Pension debt, student loan debt, CC and auto debt) virtually demands low interest rates.
For Ever.
Unless YOU wanna be that guy who pulls the plug and ends the money spigot?
And then how resilient are borrowers to weather the nasty recession that will follow?

The apple cart is very, very full so who knows what color swan will tip it over... or when.

Last edited by PamelaIamela; 05-12-2019 at 12:28 PM..
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:21 PM
 
4,687 posts, read 2,567,300 times
Reputation: 8541
Quote:
Originally Posted by PamelaIamela View Post
There is a great difference between mortgage standards in 2007 and now.
No more NINJA loans, negative amortization loans, or lending to subprime borrowers ad nauseum.
I'm not concerned about mortgage debt.


But the amount of leverage and other debt outstanding both privately and publicly held (State debt, Pension debt, student loan debt, CC and auto debt) virtually demands low interest rates.
For Ever.
Unless YOU wanna be that guy who pulls the plug and ends the money spigot?
And then how resilient are borrowers to weather the nasty recession that will follow?

The apple cart is very, very full so who knows what color swan will tip it over... or when.
It works until it doesn’t... There is only so many things the US Fed can control. They “the federal government” have decided to floor the gas on economy to make things work in the short-term at the expense of the long-run game.

In isolation yes mortgages have higher standards but it’s all still a house of cards. They will lend out to a max payment of what 65% of takehome monthly wages with what 1% down? If one member of the household loses their job or gets an significant medical issue they are f’d. Now throw in a recession and the whole thing is a leverage grandad waiting to happen. Student debt is a plague on our country with people completely misallocating funds against a terrible investment. Universities have literally become fat ineffective institutions that have leveraged the fact that their income stream is guaranteed by federal regulations and the American ideology that every child should go to college. The entire sham will cause 100’s of higher education institutions to go under once congress gets their way on bankruptcy law and student loans hit CC levels of APR (~24%+). We have millions leasing of financings 40K + brand new vehicles that will depreciated~50% in 36 months. Millions carrying high rate long-term CC debt. The whole piñata is leveraged to the hilt and just waiting for a jenga pull from the middle.
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Washington state
5,282 posts, read 2,672,144 times
Reputation: 15705
Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
I love how all of these documentaries are always hindsight 20/20.
Back in the late 70s, I was in charge of changing the APR on adjustable rate loans on customer's signature cards at the bank I worked in. I had to rewrite the rates as they changed (synonymous with going up) and I remember them being as high as 22% at one time. So when I got my home loan in 2003 and they tried to set me up for an adjustable rate loan, I screamed like a banshee. I got a fixed rate loan and was I ever glad of that several years later. Had I not, I probably would have lost my house when rates went up.

Some of us knew.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
11 years later we are still here. How is everyone doing financially since or as a result of the 2008 crash?
Certainly not as well as before 2008.
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:27 PM
 
4,687 posts, read 2,567,300 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
There are always buyer for Treasuries.

My question was about individual posters situation today.
No I find your position to be false, naive, and dangerous. Once the applecart shows any signs of turning sour people will run from treasuries like a Kardashian herp infested clap trap.

All it takes is a loss of confidence in the $, the Chinese or any America holders to dump their debt holding, and the American treasury department loses it’s ability to raise debt. Leaving them with only the ability to print money... watch out!
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:29 PM
 
4,687 posts, read 2,567,300 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
I see it the same way.

How do Americans just accept
Getting screwed year after year?
The are ignorant, entitled, and just plain believe they are the superior good guys when in actuality they are inferior to the competition in almost every single way.
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:30 PM
 
4,687 posts, read 2,567,300 times
Reputation: 8541
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
that is what i have been hearing ever since i entered the job market... that was in 1974.

in the mean time with all that talk i am now retired and did far better then i ever imagined ...so much for predictions .
Please go look at debt statistics relative to economic output and you’ll start to understand. We have never been so leveraged as a society as we are today. We are as bankrupt as society as we are morally.
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:40 PM
 
8,818 posts, read 3,853,782 times
Reputation: 1713
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodentraiser View Post
Back in the late 70s, I was in charge of changing the APR on adjustable rate loans on customer's signature cards at the bank I worked in. I had to rewrite the rates as they changed (synonymous with going up) and I remember them being as high as 22% at one time. So when I got my home loan in 2003 and they tried to set me up for an adjustable rate loan, I screamed like a banshee. I got a fixed rate loan and was I ever glad of that several years later. Had I not, I probably would have lost my house when rates went up.

Some of us knew.



Certainly not as well as before 2008.
I twice did adjustable mortgages and made out well both times. Some of us knew or had good advice on where rates were headed.
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Old 05-12-2019, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Riding a rock floating through space
1,762 posts, read 488,707 times
Reputation: 4373
The meltdown of 2008 has been "fixed" with quantitative easing - adding new fiat out of thin air and adding it to the deficit to delay the inevitable REAL meltdown to come. This was 1 year before bitcoin was created, which owes 100% of its current value to the fear of said meltdown that is coming. 2008 was a wake up call, and anyone who thinks it was something in the past that we "got through" is dreaming.
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Old 05-12-2019, 04:58 PM
 
8,818 posts, read 3,853,782 times
Reputation: 1713
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
No I find your position to be false, naive, and dangerous. Once the applecart shows any signs of turning sour people will run from treasuries like a Kardashian herp infested clap trap.

All it takes is a loss of confidence in the $, the Chinese or any America holders to dump their debt holding, and the American treasury department loses it’s ability to raise debt. Leaving them with only the ability to print money... watch out!
We have a primary dealer system where Treasury auctions are essentially guaranteed to sell out.

https://tradingplacesnewsletter.com/...d-e3f84bea7501

Of course if the whole world goes to hell, selling Treasuries may no longer be important.

Two other things to consider about Treasuries no longer selling. First is that the Fed could buy them. And second is that the US Gov't could conceivably issue USD's primarily without the associated debt.

Those would require a change in our laws and money systems.
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Old 05-12-2019, 05:00 PM
 
70,019 posts, read 70,574,017 times
Reputation: 47648
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post


Please go look at debt statistics relative to economic output and you’ll start to understand. We have never been so leveraged as a society as we are today. We are as bankrupt as society as we are morally.
I will bet this country will still be thriving and well long after your doomsday predictions died like those in the past
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