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Old 07-09-2019, 11:32 AM
 
38,144 posts, read 14,902,572 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
Average year-on-year growth over the past ten years or so has been around 2.0%, we've had some quarters of negative growth and some above 3%.

On a quarterly basis, the latest "slowdown" already started in 4Q2018, rebound in 1Q2019, probably another slowdown in 2Q2019 (stats not out yet).

Over the next 4-5 quarters, we could see a quarter or two of negative growth, but on average one could reasonably expect 2.0% growth annually over the 2018-2019 period as over the past ten years.

Or maybe not.

Good Luck!
About 2%, give or take a little, for the past ten years.

Certain segments of the economy seem to be doing better than others. But overall, seems like things are moving along at a steady pace.

Keep hearing the interest rates will be going up. When that happens, housing will likely slow down some.

The younger generation is bogged down with student loans, so depending on them to start valuing possessions over experiences might be a long shot.
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Old 07-09-2019, 12:00 PM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, originally from SF Bay Area
29,777 posts, read 54,424,430 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GotHereQuickAsICould View Post
About 2%, give or take a little, for the past ten years.

Certain segments of the economy seem to be doing better than others. But overall, seems like things are moving along at a steady pace.

Keep hearing the interest rates will be going up. When that happens, housing will likely slow down some.

The younger generation is bogged down with student loans, so depending on them to start valuing possessions over experiences might be a long shot.
Experiences cost money too...like international travel.


https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...el-Insight-Key
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Old 07-09-2019, 12:00 PM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
17,237 posts, read 19,536,382 times
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How do you figure that a recession is around the corner when the stock market is near record highs?
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Old 07-09-2019, 01:29 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,610 posts, read 10,671,815 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
How do you figure that a recession is around the corner when the stock market is near record highs?
Stock market shoots up when talk about cuts in policy rates, or other monetary stimulus, because - to put it in terms that I understand best - equity volatility potentially generates more yield than fixed income. In other words, "investors" have no better place to put their money.

Long-term rates stay low, or go lower, because annual growth over the past ten years or so has been capped at around 2%.

Occasionally quarterly growth dips to around 0% or even a bit negative, sparking talk of policy stimulus.

Occasionally quarterly growth spikes to around 3% or even a bit higher, sparking talk of "bond rout".

Traders trade on volatility.

Collectively all market participants keep markets liquid and flexible.

Good Luck!
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Old 07-09-2019, 02:34 PM
 
Location: Ohio
19,903 posts, read 14,228,365 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by East of the River View Post
The more I'm looking the more I see at least a slow down or stagnation forming.
You're seeing Leprechauns.

Quote:
Originally Posted by East of the River View Post
I agree. But historically were getting into new territory in the US at least.
That much is true with respect to historic expansion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Eventually someone will be right....I think we have a few years before we get a serious recession.
Most likely 1st or 2nd QTR 2020.

A new historic record of expansion has been set, so it's unlikely to continue for "a few years."

Much of it will have to do with Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
How do you figure that a recession is around the corner when the stock market is near record highs?
Because anyone with an IQ greater than -10,000 knows that stock markets are totally meaningless and have absolutely no bearing on the economy and can never cause a recession.

If you think you know something, take the quiz to see how much you actually know:


#1 The stock market loses 40.9% of its "value" over a period of 959 days. Characterize the state of the economy during that time.

Spoiler
GDP growth was averaging an astounding 12.5% per quarter

That actually happened September 1939 to April 1942

If you said the economy was performing in any way less than stellar, you failed, wrong answer, REDO FROM START




#2 The stock market sets records over a period of 651 days. Characterize the state of the economy during that time.


Spoiler

That was the 3rd and final recession of the Eisenhower Administration, and the final recession of the Great Depression, which ended in 1961.

The DJIA doubled in value from 250 to 500+.

This is proof -- one of a dozen examples where they stock market soared, while the economy tanked or did not perform well.

Another famed occurrence was during the 1928 Recession when the stock market set new record highs almost daily -- but once the recession ended in June 1929 the stock market started crashing, with a huge crash in October 1929.




#3 The stock market loses 45.1% of its value over a period of 694 days. Characterize the economy.
Spoiler


That was January 1973 to December 1974. US GDP grew at rates of 1.03% per quarter to as much as 3.77% per quarter, averaging 2.24% per quarter over those 8 quarters.

While the economy wasn't stellar, it was still average or slightly better by any benchmark.
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Old 07-09-2019, 03:15 PM
 
Location: Boston, MA
8,725 posts, read 7,676,702 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
We've been seeing these threads since 2012, maybe you'll be THE ONE!

(someone check baltic dry index, or cost of avocados, or something)
I was convinced recession was just around the corner from about 2012-2015. I'm out of the prediction business. Anyone who "predicted" the last one just got lucky.
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Old 07-09-2019, 06:28 PM
 
2,179 posts, read 534,812 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
Average year-on-year growth over the past ten years or so has been around 2.0%, we've had some quarters of negative growth and some above 3%... on average one could reasonably expect 2.0% growth annually over the 2018-2019 period as over the past ten years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GotHereQuickAsICould View Post
About 2%, give or take a little, for the past ten years.
The Great Recession officially ended 10 years ago - June 2009.

I find it helpful to look at what's happening now among lower-skilled employees, and among demographic segments that historically have been hit hardest during recessions.

The reality is that wages are rising at the fastest rate in a decade for lower-skilled workers, and unemployment among less-educated Americans and minorities is at or near an all-time low. Some in the press have reported we're in the 10th year of economic expansion, the longest on record. But those accounts ignore that the last two years have been far different than the first eight in economic policies and results.

Currently, the unemployment rate for blacks is 2.9 percentage points higher than it is for whites. Back at the start of the Great Recession, the unemployment rate for blacks was 4.6 percentage points higher than it was for whites. Unemployment has fallen twice as much among blacks as whites in the past two years. Nearly one million more blacks and two million more Hispanics are currently employed than when Barack Obama left office, and minorities account for more than half of all new jobs created during the Trump Presidency. Unemployment among black women has is roughly 5% over the last six months, the lowest since 1972, and a mere 3.5% of high school graduates are unemployed.

It seems from a jobs perspective, things are getting better fast - and especially so for lower-skilled employees and demographic segments that historically have been hit hardest during recessions.

As always, YMMV.
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Old 07-09-2019, 09:33 PM
 
5,115 posts, read 2,751,974 times
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The stock market is always at record highs before a crash and recession occur. Literally every time a recession happens everyone acts shocked like it’s the first time.
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Old 07-09-2019, 09:44 PM
 
8,881 posts, read 3,932,252 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
The stock market is always at record highs before a crash and recession occur. Literally every time a recession happens everyone acts shocked like itís the first time.
Since 1982 (when I really started investing in the stock market) the Dow has generally tracked upward. So before any recession since then the Dow is generally going higher, but not necessarily at record levels. i.e. serendipity...

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow...storical-chart
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Old Yesterday, 12:38 AM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
17,391 posts, read 21,228,976 times
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If you subtract the years from one recession to another, that can give you an idea, ballpark figure, when the next one is on the way. Roughly 8-10 years. At 69YO I've been thru 5 of them, and I'm ignoring the mild recession, reportedly, that happened in the mid to late 50's as I was too young to recognize it. If the recession should happen just before the election, it will not do anything to decrease Trump's popularity, and surprisingly, it may increase his chance of winning.
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