U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old Yesterday, 04:17 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,610 posts, read 10,671,815 times
Reputation: 5762

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
The Great Recession officially ended 10 years ago - June 2009.

I find it helpful to look at what's happening now among lower-skilled employees, and among demographic segments that historically have been hit hardest during recessions.

The reality is that wages are rising at the fastest rate in a decade for lower-skilled workers, and unemployment among less-educated Americans and minorities is at or near an all-time low. Some in the press have reported we're in the 10th year of economic expansion, the longest on record. But those accounts ignore that the last two years have been far different than the first eight in economic policies and results.

Currently, the unemployment rate for blacks is 2.9 percentage points higher than it is for whites. Back at the start of the Great Recession, the unemployment rate for blacks was 4.6 percentage points higher than it was for whites. Unemployment has fallen twice as much among blacks as whites in the past two years. Nearly one million more blacks and two million more Hispanics are currently employed than when Barack Obama left office, and minorities account for more than half of all new jobs created during the Trump Presidency. Unemployment among black women has is roughly 5% over the last six months, the lowest since 1972, and a mere 3.5% of high school graduates are unemployed.

It seems from a jobs perspective, things are getting better fast - and especially so for lower-skilled employees and demographic segments that historically have been hit hardest during recessions.

As always, YMMV.
I also find it interesting (nay, vital) to look at what's happening among lower-skilled employees and the less educated, but I wish we could leave the "demographics" behind us (like the French do) and just consider ourselves human beings working together in a challenging but effective legal and economic system on US soil.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old Yesterday, 07:36 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
17,237 posts, read 19,536,382 times
Reputation: 12991
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
The stock market is always at record highs before a crash and recession occur. Literally every time a recession happens everyone acts shocked like it’s the first time.
But then, the stock market has been hitting record highs almost every year since March 2013.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Yesterday, 07:59 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
4,811 posts, read 1,984,732 times
Reputation: 5243
Leading Economic Indicators in the United States have been mixed in recent months. I have not noted a clear down trend and don't know how far in advance that they actually signal an economic downturn.

The treasury yield curve is more disturbing. Over the last several months the yield curve has gone inverted at least twice. Inverted yield curves where the three month yield is more than the ten year yield generally signal a coming economic downturn.


Trying to squeeze every dollar out of the DOW could cause someone to wait too long. Since I wanted to avoid this, I moved my funds into more conservative investments over the past nine months. I consolidated all of my gains realized since 2009. When the recession does hit perhaps next year, I will focus on income funds that are also stable. By the time I am 70.5 I am hopeful that I can start to make mandatory withdrawals without selling off everything.

Last edited by Tonyafd; Yesterday at 08:24 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Yesterday, 08:34 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
23,580 posts, read 17,553,447 times
Reputation: 27640
With respect to boating, it's an expensive hobby.

I have a relative with a higher end pontoon, and he's also had numerous other boats. It's a reasonable boat to maintain, but just the slip fee is $3,000 annually at the marina he's at. It has to be insured and registered. In some states, personal property taxes or other taxes like yacht taxes apply. Gas at a marina is easily a buck over retail. Winterizing. Tune-ups and other maintenance. It all adds up.

You really need to use the hell out of a boat to get your money's worth. Younger people that I know are generally more interested in travel and things like that to get the money's worth out of a boat.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Yesterday, 08:45 AM
 
8,881 posts, read 3,932,252 times
Reputation: 1720
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
With respect to boating, it's an expensive hobby.

I have a relative with a higher end pontoon, and he's also had numerous other boats. It's a reasonable boat to maintain, but just the slip fee is $3,000 annually at the marina he's at. It has to be insured and registered. In some states, personal property taxes or other taxes like yacht taxes apply. Gas at a marina is easily a buck over retail. Winterizing. Tune-ups and other maintenance. It all adds up.

You really need to use the hell out of a boat to get your money's worth. Younger people that I know are generally more interested in travel and things like that to get the money's worth out of a boat.
We live in a year round lake town. What we do is share a boat with other 5 families we know and trust. Over the last 20 years or so we have had two boats. The first was used by the time we bought in at $3K. The new pontoon a few years back was $10K per couple. We split most all the bills and fees. Gas, slip, cleaning, fees, maintenance, repairs. We pay less than $100 or maybe a few hundred at times per month. Almost always turn key.

Most boats deteriorate from not enough use.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Yesterday, 09:04 AM
 
2,175 posts, read 534,812 times
Reputation: 3785
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
I also find it interesting (nay, vital) to look at what's happening among lower-skilled employees and the less educated, but I wish we could leave the "demographics" behind us (like the French do) and just consider ourselves human beings working together in a challenging but effective legal and economic system on US soil.
I understand your point, and I do not disagree from a social perspective. At the same time, since this is an economic thread, there is clear disparate economic impact among various demographics, and a simple Student's T Test confirms that the probability the disparity is due to chance as vanishingly small. Thus, I reported the information and do not mean to imply any causation; I merely state that it exists.

Last edited by RationalExpectations; Yesterday at 09:12 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Yesterday, 09:10 AM
 
2,175 posts, read 534,812 times
Reputation: 3785
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
Leading Economic Indicators in the United States have been mixed in recent months.
From the most recent LEI press release:

Quote:
Thursday, June 20, 2019

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in May, remaining at 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in April, and a 0.2 percent increase in March.
And the Coincident Economic Index®:

Quote:
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in May to 105.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in April, and a 0.1 percent increase in March.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Yesterday, 09:51 AM
 
Location: San Francisco/East Bay and Los Angeles, formerly DC and Boston
2,140 posts, read 3,430,980 times
Reputation: 1819
The last four recessions were all preceded by the Fed raising overnight interest rates over the level of the 30 year T bond. They've gotten a lot wiser and are now ready to act "preemptively" by cutting at the next FOMC meeting. Australia hasn't had a recession since the early 90s. We could have a 20-25 year run if the Fed continues to discard the dated nonsense about Phillips Curves and low unemployment causing inflation, and continues to take it easy with the Fed Funds rate.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Yesterday, 04:55 PM
 
Location: Ohio
19,896 posts, read 14,228,365 times
Reputation: 16081
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
The stock market is always at record highs before a crash and recession occur. Literally every time a recession happens everyone acts shocked like it’s the first time.
No, it isn't and you cannot prove it.

There is absolutely no relationship whatsoever between the economy and the stock market and anyone who knows anything about Economics knows that to be true and knows why it is true.

Recessions occurred before stock markets even existed.

The historical record provides irrefutable proof that when the economy enters a recession, the stock market has done and can do any of the following:

1) set continuous record highs; or
2) go sideways; or
3) crash

The historical record provides irrefutable proof that that when the economy exits a recession, the stock market has done and can do any of the following:

1) set continuous record highs; or
2) go sideways; or
3) crash

The historical record provides irrefutable proof that when the economy is performing well, the stock market has done and can do any of the following:

1) set continuous record highs; or
2) go sideways; or
3) crash

Recessions do not cause stock markets to crash.

Stock market crashes do not cause recessions.


All of you stop with the stupidity already.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Yesterday, 05:56 PM
 
3,274 posts, read 847,864 times
Reputation: 3779
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
I also find it interesting (nay, vital) to look at what's happening among lower-skilled employees and the less educated, but I wish we could leave the "demographics" behind us (like the French do) and just consider ourselves human beings working together in a challenging but effective legal and economic system on US soil.
The French sure hate people from the US for as "open-minded" as they are.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top