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Old Yesterday, 06:08 PM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
4,811 posts, read 1,984,732 times
Reputation: 5243

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
No, it isn't and you cannot prove it.

There is absolutely no relationship whatsoever between the economy and the stock market and anyone who knows anything about Economics knows that to be true and knows why it is true.

Recessions occurred before stock markets even existed.

The historical record provides irrefutable proof that when the economy enters a recession, the stock market has done and can do any of the following:

1) set continuous record highs; or
2) go sideways; or
3) crash

The historical record provides irrefutable proof that that when the economy exits a recession, the stock market has done and can do any of the following:

1) set continuous record highs; or
2) go sideways; or
3) crash

The historical record provides irrefutable proof that when the economy is performing well, the stock market has done and can do any of the following:

1) set continuous record highs; or
2) go sideways; or
3) crash

Recessions do not cause stock markets to crash.

Stock market crashes do not cause recessions.


All of you stop with the stupidity already.

Don't get so cocky. He is right back to 1990. The stock market tends to reflect investor expectations over the next six months. If there is a sell off, investors are looking at the signs. If the signs say that a recession is coming, the stock market does tend to decline.


https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow...storical-chart
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Old Yesterday, 11:14 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
27,306 posts, read 15,772,260 times
Reputation: 9861
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
We've been seeing these threads since 2012, maybe you'll be THE ONE!

(someone check baltic dry index, or cost of avocados, or something)
I haven't seen much of these since Trump won the presidency to be quite honest. A LOT of people whom previously said that the economy would contract for similar reasons to what is still going on in the economy today (with the added talks of tariffs) but now they say that we are cheering for a recession. Huh, what? All we are doing is saying is the same thing they did before their favored party was in power...
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Old Today, 02:09 AM
 
Location: Outside US
1,195 posts, read 471,357 times
Reputation: 1551
Quote:
Originally Posted by East of the River View Post
So back in the 2006-07 time frame the first person who told me the economy was going to tank was a former coworker who became a partner in a boat dealership.

It looks like the recreation industry is seeing signs of a downturn again.

https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/indus...ler-confidence

https://seekingalpha.com/article/427...gnal-recession


The more I'm looking the more I see at least a slow down or stagnation forming.
There's also an inverted yield curve which is a strong predictor.

We're do for a cyclical slowdown.

I don't think it's bee severe but we are due for one.

It's a part of the cycle.
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Old Today, 06:25 AM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
27,306 posts, read 15,772,260 times
Reputation: 9861
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
There's also an inverted yield curve which is a strong predictor.

We're do for a cyclical slowdown.

I don't think it's bee severe but we are due for one.

It's a part of the cycle.
If I were to be so.bold, the threats of tariffs and trade wars isn't really helping matters. Not that they are bad things, but they are negatable to what believers of the tariffs would do, increase American business...
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Old Today, 06:52 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
23,580 posts, read 17,553,447 times
Reputation: 27640
Growth will continue until something stops it. Being "due for one" doesn't mean anything in an economic sense.
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Old Today, 11:54 AM
 
3,274 posts, read 847,864 times
Reputation: 3779
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
No, it isn't and you cannot prove it.

There is absolutely no relationship whatsoever between the economy and the stock market and anyone who knows anything about Economics knows that to be true and knows why it is true.

Recessions occurred before stock markets even existed.

The historical record provides irrefutable proof that when the economy enters a recession, the stock market has done and can do any of the following:

1) set continuous record highs; or
2) go sideways; or
3) crash

The historical record provides irrefutable proof that that when the economy exits a recession, the stock market has done and can do any of the following:

1) set continuous record highs; or
2) go sideways; or
3) crash

The historical record provides irrefutable proof that when the economy is performing well, the stock market has done and can do any of the following:

1) set continuous record highs; or
2) go sideways; or
3) crash

Recessions do not cause stock markets to crash.

Stock market crashes do not cause recessions.


All of you stop with the stupidity already.
For those reading this, make no mistake, the chance of these outcomes is not necessarily equal during any given point in an economic cycle, but I believe the point is that we need to be prepared for any of those outcomes to occur next.

- Cash savings hedges against having to sell investments at the market bottom to offset income loss / job loss
- Investments hedge against inflation devaluing your savings as would happen if it all were kept in cash

I am saving for two, so I am putting aside 10% to cash savings and 20% to retirement. Once I build up two full years of top-line income, I will put the full 30% to investments.
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