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Old 07-08-2019, 12:16 PM
 
1,898 posts, read 844,934 times
Reputation: 723

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So back in the 2006-07 time frame the first person who told me the economy was going to tank was a former coworker who became a partner in a boat dealership.

It looks like the recreation industry is seeing signs of a downturn again.

https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/indus...ler-confidence

https://seekingalpha.com/article/427...gnal-recession


The more I'm looking the more I see at least a slow down or stagnation forming.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:28 PM
 
Location: On the road
5,926 posts, read 2,887,264 times
Reputation: 11336
We've been seeing these threads since 2012, maybe you'll be THE ONE!

(someone check baltic dry index, or cost of avocados, or something)
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Old 07-08-2019, 01:51 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,608 posts, read 10,669,475 times
Reputation: 5762
Quote:
Originally Posted by East of the River View Post
So back in the 2006-07 time frame the first person who told me the economy was going to tank was a former coworker who became a partner in a boat dealership.

It looks like the recreation industry is seeing signs of a downturn again.

https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/indus...ler-confidence

https://seekingalpha.com/article/427...gnal-recession


The more I'm looking the more I see at least a slow down or stagnation forming.
Average year-on-year growth over the past ten years or so has been around 2.0%, we've had some quarters of negative growth and some above 3%.

On a quarterly basis, the latest "slowdown" already started in 4Q2018, rebound in 1Q2019, probably another slowdown in 2Q2019 (stats not out yet).

Over the next 4-5 quarters, we could see a quarter or two of negative growth, but on average one could reasonably expect 2.0% growth annually over the 2018-2019 period as over the past ten years.

Or maybe not.

Good Luck!
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Old 07-08-2019, 03:11 PM
 
1,898 posts, read 844,934 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
We've been seeing these threads since 2012, maybe you'll be THE ONE!

(someone check baltic dry index, or cost of avocados, or something)
I agree. But historically were getting into new territory in the US at least.
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Old 07-08-2019, 07:53 PM
 
1,068 posts, read 221,034 times
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It will be here before the 2020 election. The Fed wouldn't be talking about lowering rates already if they didn't know what was coming. Especially with rates already at near historic lows.......
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Old 07-08-2019, 08:28 PM
 
Location: Washington State
18,473 posts, read 9,561,235 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
We've been seeing these threads since 2012, maybe you'll be THE ONE!

(someone check baltic dry index, or cost of avocados, or something)
Eventually someone will be right....I think we have a few years before we get a serious recession.
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Old 07-08-2019, 08:29 PM
 
96 posts, read 18,145 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Eventually someone will be right....I think we have a few years before we get a serious recession.
I agree with the bolded part... I think we will have a recession sometime within the next few hundred years.
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Old Yesterday, 07:35 AM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, originally from SF Bay Area
29,772 posts, read 54,408,375 times
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Boat sales may well be affected by the same market forces as car, and worse, motorcycle sales, and it's not recession.

More likely the aging of the buyer pool, and lack of interest and/or money from younger buyers. RVs showed record sales in 2017-18 (when we bought ours) and you don't replace them every 3-4 years like a car. I could be wrong but there are a lot of industries that will have to handle a slow period until the younger adults start to settle down and have kids, and outgrow their "experience over stuff" attitude.
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Old Yesterday, 08:29 AM
 
8,881 posts, read 3,930,702 times
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Thing about boats, it's not only about boats. It's also about gas prices. And compared to 7-8 years ago, gas is cheap enough to not discourage boating.

Where I live in a lake/boating recreational area, we are still going like gangbusters! 7-8 years ago we were seriously lagging when gas was very costly.
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Old Yesterday, 10:53 AM
 
6,615 posts, read 3,742,110 times
Reputation: 13667
Quote:
Originally Posted by East of the River View Post
So back in the 2006-07 time frame the first person who told me the economy was going to tank was a former coworker who became a partner in a boat dealership.

It looks like the recreation industry is seeing signs of a downturn again.

https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/indus...ler-confidence

https://seekingalpha.com/article/427...gnal-recession


The more I'm looking the more I see at least a slow down or stagnation forming.
I think the jobs numbers are often the first thing to show a slowdown.

Also, housing. If housing sales go down and continue going down for a while...well, real estate IS the U S economy, I've heard it said.

I wouldn't think boat sales are indicative, since a lot of boat purchases are by wealthy people. Wealthy people don't experience recessions. That's when they MAKE money. Unless maybe they divert their purchases from boats to cheap recessionary real estate? But if that's why boat sales show a coming recession, I would think tracking real estate sales would be a better indicator. Even with investors buying r.e., the # of sales would still go down, and the avg prices would go down.
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