U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 08-19-2019, 03:16 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
1,849 posts, read 2,132,079 times
Reputation: 2840

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
I agree with you. There are signs that a recession is going to happen, plus we can't have an economic expansion forever. All recessions are usually different, so it will be interesting to know what it is this time. Usually its the sector that you think is "strong" that turns out to be a house of cards and a bubble. Everyone in 2006 thought housing was doing well, and in 1998 everyone thought tech was the next big thing.
My impression is it may be education, tech (again), healthcare, or a sector that no one really pays attention to like natural resources.
Government debt is too long term a thing to cause a short term recession Imo.
In 2006 most people thought housing was doing well but looking back there were obvious warning signs. One was huge oversupply (builders building triple the volumes they historically had because they thought demand would continue unabated) and banks/subprime lenders doing way too many risky loans to unqualified or over-leveraged buyers.

So what are the sectors that seems most out of whack currently?

Auto lenders/companies again doing too risky long term loans for cars that have become far more expensive than they used to be or need to be. Thing is the percent of income for autos is far less than for housing, so I don't see it having as big of an impact. Also, most households have more than 1 car, so it won't kill most household to have to go down to one car, or can use alternative transportation means. Everyone needs a place to live and so the housing crisis had a far greater and more pervasive impact.

Healthcare, where costs have far outstripped growth in wages or the economy as a whole and insurance doesn't cover what it used to, putting more of the burden on patients and businesses to cover the costs. The healthcare/insurance sector is equally bloated in number of jobs and salaries, which again cannot last. As bankruptcies become more common it's going to have a shockwave effect on all aspects of the business and things will have to come down. It will likely be horrible timing as it will coincide with most of the boomers hitting that age where we'll need more, better, and cheaper healthcare instead of the opposite.

Honestly I don't think either of those things are enough to cause a swift crash or long-term recession on their own. More likely I think we enter a period of slow or very limited growth similar to "stagflation" in the 70s. How long it will last, who knows?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 08-22-2019, 12:39 PM
 
Location: The middle of nowhere
9,519 posts, read 4,343,890 times
Reputation: 8076
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
I agree with you. There are signs that a recession is going to happen, plus we can't have an economic expansion forever. All recessions are usually different, so it will be interesting to know what it is this time. Usually its the sector that you think is "strong" that turns out to be a house of cards and a bubble. Everyone in 2006 thought housing was doing well, and in 1998 everyone thought tech was the next big thing.
My impression is it may be education, tech (again), healthcare, or a sector that no one really pays attention to like natural resources.
Government debt is too long term a thing to cause a short term recession Imo.
I think a trade-induced recession is going to crush oil prices. Within the next 1-3 years, there will be a massive bloodbath in the shale oil industry which will then bring down the big banks. The Trump recession will become the Second Great Depression.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-22-2019, 01:56 PM
 
13,540 posts, read 18,093,476 times
Reputation: 20474
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
I think a trade-induced recession is going to crush oil prices. Within the next 1-3 years, there will be a massive bloodbath in the shale oil industry which will then bring down the big banks. The Trump recession will become the Second Great Depression.
And you will be in OKC when it happens.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Today, 09:00 AM
 
30,681 posts, read 47,874,260 times
Reputation: 16541
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

And to your other question, no. There were plenty of superrich people around when that statistic was at an all-time high in 2008.
So you are assuming that chart means people aren’t paying their bills—
But maybe it means that there is less debt to be paid

People cut back on debt during 08 recession
Has the % of debt TO INCOME grown?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Today, 09:38 AM
 
1,975 posts, read 656,996 times
Reputation: 1567
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShampooBanana View Post
In 2006 most people thought housing was doing well but looking back there were obvious warning signs. One was huge oversupply (builders building triple the volumes they historically had because they thought demand would continue unabated) and banks/subprime lenders doing way too many risky loans to unqualified or over-leveraged buyers.

So what are the sectors that seems most out of whack currently?

Auto lenders/companies again doing too risky long term loans for cars that have become far more expensive than they used to be or need to be. Thing is the percent of income for autos is far less than for housing, so I don't see it having as big of an impact. Also, most households have more than 1 car, so it won't kill most household to have to go down to one car, or can use alternative transportation means. Everyone needs a place to live and so the housing crisis had a far greater and more pervasive impact.

Healthcare, where costs have far outstripped growth in wages or the economy as a whole and insurance doesn't cover what it used to, putting more of the burden on patients and businesses to cover the costs. The healthcare/insurance sector is equally bloated in number of jobs and salaries, which again cannot last. As bankruptcies become more common it's going to have a shockwave effect on all aspects of the business and things will have to come down. It will likely be horrible timing as it will coincide with most of the boomers hitting that age where we'll need more, better, and cheaper healthcare instead of the opposite.

Honestly I don't think either of those things are enough to cause a swift crash or long-term recession on their own. More likely I think we enter a period of slow or very limited growth similar to "stagflation" in the 70s. How long it will last, who knows?
I agree there won't be a financial crisis, just a run-of-the-mill recession with capital reallocation away from bloated sectors and associated layoffs. But nothing like the 2008 recession.

I think auto loans will be the trigger. The repo man will be busy.

I don't see healthcare triggering a recession or even retrenchment. Health spending for seniors will be one of the last costs to be trimmed because seniors vote. Also, what you are describing is too little supply, not too much. Too much supply is what triggers writedowns. The retiree health crisis is already happening and is caused by the stagnant or shrinking pipeline of physicians. It takes a decade to train a physician so that's too long term to trigger a recession.

Tech will crash in that VC capital will dry up. But today tech money is institutional VC money, not so much retail dopes buying IPO stocks so I don't see a systemic shock resulting from this.

Some have said a fifth of colleges will close in the next two decades. Education is more likely to crash than healthcare because it's a service consumed by politically weak young people, and it's less necessary than healthcare. Thankfully Gen Z is very small and international student numbers are declining, so price increases should abate as education becomes a buyer's market.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Today, 09:48 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
14,120 posts, read 8,832,320 times
Reputation: 20535
No recession coming.

It will be business as usual for as far as can be forecast. All bets are off if a meteor hits New York, or California falls off into the ocean, but in the normal course of business, no. No recession.
The Dow is pretty close to an all time high; NASDAQ is, too.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old Today, 07:33 PM
 
Location: Boston
8,557 posts, read 2,496,004 times
Reputation: 6032
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
I think a trade-induced recession is going to crush oil prices. Within the next 1-3 years, there will be a massive bloodbath in the shale oil industry which will then bring down the big banks. The Trump recession will become the Second Great Depression.
dead end call center job? when you're on the bottom rung of the ladder, things always look bad. The good news for you is you'll be least effected by a recession. We'll always need unskilled, low income earners. The people who will be most effected will be those with careers and families.

Keep your chin up!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top