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Old 08-12-2019, 05:59 PM
 
9,692 posts, read 9,438,782 times
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This is Paul Krugman's take. Seems to me that the big advantage of China is that they don't have to worry about their base.

China’s response so far has been fairly modest and measured, at least considering the situation. The U.S. has implemented or announced tariffs on virtually everything China sells here, with average tariff rates not seen in generations. The Chinese, by contrast, have yet to deploy anything like the full range of tools at their disposal to offset Trump’s actions and hurt his political base.
What they’ve been saying through their actions, in effect, is: “You think you can bully us. But you can’t. We, on the other hand, can ruin your farmers and crash your stock market. Do you want to reconsider?”


For the fuller view
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinio...rump-economics
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Old 08-12-2019, 07:22 PM
 
2,821 posts, read 1,831,691 times
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They have a new Silk Road to build.

“As some western nations move backwards building ‘walls’, China is contriving to build bridges, literally and metaphorically. The super power status the United States has achieved is to a great extent grounded in the security it offers its allies. Geopolitically, China decided a long time ago that security is too expensive of an offer. Instead, this new superpower will offer connectivity”

Halt accumulation of more treasuries and dump the dollar’s across the globe building infrastructure.

I for one think...the Donald...is in over his depth.
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Old 08-12-2019, 08:16 PM
 
8,538 posts, read 9,279,890 times
Reputation: 6945
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cida View Post
This is Paul Krugman's take. Seems to me that the big advantage of China is that they don't have to worry about their base.

China’s response so far has been fairly modest and measured, at least considering the situation. The U.S. has implemented or announced tariffs on virtually everything China sells here, with average tariff rates not seen in generations. The Chinese, by contrast, have yet to deploy anything like the full range of tools at their disposal to offset Trump’s actions and hurt his political base.
What they’ve been saying through their actions, in effect, is: “You think you can bully us. But you can’t. We, on the other hand, can ruin your farmers and crash your stock market. Do you want to reconsider?”


For the fuller view
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinio...rump-economics
We can. They need us far more than we need them. If we stopped buying towels, underwear and socks etc. from the Chicoms their already highly-falsified (the Chinese lie about everything as a matter of policy - fake cities with no citizenry for an example - belching CFCs into the atmosphere at rates never seen before for another) economy would implode in months.
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Old 08-12-2019, 09:42 PM
 
2,977 posts, read 1,224,038 times
Reputation: 2897
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
We can. They need us far more than we need them. If we stopped buying towels, underwear and socks etc. from the Chicoms their already highly-falsified (the Chinese lie about everything as a matter of policy - fake cities with no citizenry for an example - belching CFCs into the atmosphere at rates never seen before for another) economy would implode in months.
Fifteen years ago that would have been absolutely true, now the story is more nuanced. The Chinese middle class is the largest in the world, their domestic market is enormous. They're not entirely reliant on exports to the US like they used to be.

Let's say the US stopped all imports from China, that would be economic suicide for both countries. The US doesn't really have any tools left in the tool box, especially since Trump is going at this unilaterally. I doubt this will be resolved before the 2020 election.
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Old 08-13-2019, 12:24 AM
 
839 posts, read 499,403 times
Reputation: 1326
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cida View Post
This is Paul Krugman's take. Seems to me that the big advantage of China is that they don't have to worry about their base.

China’s response so far has been fairly modest and measured, at least considering the situation. The U.S. has implemented or announced tariffs on virtually everything China sells here, with average tariff rates not seen in generations. The Chinese, by contrast, have yet to deploy anything like the full range of tools at their disposal to offset Trump’s actions and hurt his political base.
What they’ve been saying through their actions, in effect, is: “You think you can bully us. But you can’t. We, on the other hand, can ruin your farmers and crash your stock market. Do you want to reconsider?”


For the fuller view
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinio...rump-economics
So much whining about the Trade War, this and that, Trump ruining the global economy. The global economy fruited in 2001, growth is not perennial.

We as a Nation have stopped smoking the FREE TRADE opium. FREE TRADE opium was making CHINA a world military power, while we slept. We are no longer asleep. We will not finance China's growth into a superpower, telling ourselves "oh, well, you know it had to happen, its destiny, we're getting old, they are getting young and strong...." Internationalism is a periodical idea. As is nationalism. One is day; the other is night. Day flows into Night; Night flows into Day. That is how the world remains eternal.

The tariff history of the United States spans from 1789 to present. Tariffs paid off our war debts when we first became a nation. Tariffs financed our government for many years after that. All nations of the world use and used tariffs, for ever. The idea of FREE TRADE was recent, and is not in disrepute, since only a few countries tried to practice it, while all the other countries tried to cheat on it and get ahead.
Tariffs are eternal, except for a very short phase in the cycle when business idealists gain power. Trump is right. The world snickered at FREE TRADE behind our backs. The world understood how stupid our idealism was. It was our religion. And they all cheated like crazy, thinking we were mad.

Wake Up!
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Old 08-13-2019, 07:20 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,740 posts, read 10,800,074 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewjdeg View Post
Let's say the US stopped all imports from China, that would be economic suicide for both countries.
No, it wouldn't be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewjdeg View Post
The US doesn't really have any tools left in the tool box
There are more tools left in the box than you can imagine. True, it would take some time to re-hone them and fashion new ones. But living creatures do it everyday, it's called adaptation and survival.

We'll both be fine with less of each other, even without each other, thank you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewjdeg View Post
, especially since Trump is going at this unilaterally. I doubt this will be resolved before the 2020 election.
The tariffs are a two-pronged instrument, not necessarily designed to resolve anything by this or that date.

Either way, then, it may prove to be an effective political propaganda tool, but it depends on other factors, too numerous to list here: the tool box is big and the imagination is bigger.

In any case, we don't need each other, and no one is going to commit economic suicide because of this slowdown and to some extent disengagement, or degearing, in economic globalism.

On the contrary, it is a healthy respite.

As poster #5 astutely mentioned, the acceleration in economic globalization peaked probably in 2001, and the slowdown began in 2008-2009, long before the current president came to office: he is a lagging indicator.

Personally I don't like throwing money away on shoddy, throw-away products and I am not comfortable with US workers and average income people legally on US soil being thrown under the bus and then being promised an impossible sop now and then.

Humans thrive by the work of their hands.

Good Luck!

Last edited by bale002; 08-13-2019 at 07:30 AM..
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Old 08-13-2019, 10:54 AM
 
9,068 posts, read 4,035,852 times
Reputation: 1783
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cida View Post
This is Paul Krugman's take. Seems to me that the big advantage of China is that they don't have to worry about their base.

China’s response so far has been fairly modest and measured, at least considering the situation. The U.S. has implemented or announced tariffs on virtually everything China sells here, with average tariff rates not seen in generations. The Chinese, by contrast, have yet to deploy anything like the full range of tools at their disposal to offset Trump’s actions and hurt his political base.
What they’ve been saying through their actions, in effect, is: “You think you can bully us. But you can’t. We, on the other hand, can ruin your farmers and crash your stock market. Do you want to reconsider?”


For the fuller view
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinio...rump-economics
Their secretive central command doesn't have nearly the political worries as our open governance, along with its attendant inefficiencies. So the timing, type and size of central economic policies are much easier and effective.
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Old 08-13-2019, 12:10 PM
 
3,903 posts, read 1,017,572 times
Reputation: 4472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
They have a new Silk Road to build.

“As some western nations move backwards building ‘walls’, China is contriving to build bridges, literally and metaphorically. The super power status the United States has achieved is to a great extent grounded in the security it offers its allies. Geopolitically, China decided a long time ago that security is too expensive of an offer. Instead, this new superpower will offer connectivity”

Halt accumulation of more treasuries and dump the dollar’s across the globe building infrastructure.

I for one think...the Donald...is in over his depth.
There are countries that stand to lose something by "building bridges". Still-developing countries are the ones that stand to gain.

If you wonder why the US wants tariffs, "building walls", it's because these countries stand to lose something when labor pretty much everywhere else is cheaper. We have to artificially disincentivize cheap foreign labor to discourage manufacturing from being outsourced.
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Old 08-13-2019, 12:46 PM
 
8,238 posts, read 7,459,455 times
Reputation: 6632
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cida View Post
What they’ve been saying through their actions, in effect, is: “You think you can bully us. But you can’t. We, on the other hand, can ruin your farmers and crash your stock market. Do you want to reconsider?”
They're going after agriculture because the US is already restricting trade in semiconductors, network equipment, aluminum, steel, and other industrial goods. Trade in semiconductors has already fallen off dramatically. Krugman's take is always partisan, although he is correct that Trump is a blunt tool when it comes to trade.
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Old 08-13-2019, 01:33 PM
 
435 posts, read 127,252 times
Reputation: 1510
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewjdeg View Post
Fifteen years ago that would have been absolutely true, now the story is more nuanced. The Chinese middle class is the largest in the world, their domestic market is enormous. They're not entirely reliant on exports to the US like they used to be.

Let's say the US stopped all imports from China, that would be economic suicide for both countries. The US doesn't really have any tools left in the tool box, especially since Trump is going at this unilaterally. I doubt this will be resolved before the 2020 election.
Earlier this year, as our joke of "fiscally responsible leadership" was piling up record debt, the Chinese government has a bit under five trillion dollars worth of surplus capital sitting around to deploy domestically and abroad. They will, after a rough patch, thrive without us. They are far more resilient and hard working that most westerners. Believing that they will wither and die if we "cut the cord" is based on who we once were, not current reality. Unless trump flat out capitulates, China will hold their ground and wait until the election, while the subtle damage they inflict, like refusing to buy any ag. products from us, reduces rumps base, and increases the chances of him losing.

I certainly wouldn't want to live as a Chinese citizen, and have no admiration for their style of rule, but I can't believe how clueless the average American is, when it comes to comprehending exactly how advanced China is, and how much further ahead they are in many, many ways.
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