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Old Yesterday, 07:10 AM
 
1,852 posts, read 624,625 times
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What explains this?

Has fiscal and monetary policy become better at prolonging expansions?

Has fiat currency allowed central banks to reflate bad debts more easily?

Has deficit spending made bonds less attractive, keeping money in the equity markets longer?
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Old Yesterday, 07:32 AM
 
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First of all I would question whether this is really true.


Sure, the most recent expansion is long, but it came after a very large contraction. I don't think even the 2009-2019 expansion can compare to the 1940-1973 expansion, for example, which followed the 11-year-long Great Depression.
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Old Yesterday, 07:35 AM
 
Location: NC
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Part of the current expansion is due to stealing from the future. By building debt in a time of supposed prosperity.
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Old Yesterday, 07:35 AM
 
1,852 posts, read 624,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by turf3 View Post
First of all I would question whether this is really true.


Sure, the most recent expansion is long, but it came after a very large contraction. I don't think even the 2009-2019 expansion can compare to the 1940-1973 expansion, for example, which followed the 11-year-long Great Depression.
It is true.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...us-economy.asp

Quote:
Business cycles have varied over time, and the data most relevant to the current period is from 1945 to 2009. During this period, the average expansion was approximately 58 months, and the average contraction was approximately 11 months. Expansion is the default mode of the U.S. economy, and the average expansion time period has continued to average longer over time. The longest expansionary period in U.S. history occurred from March 1991 to March 2001, a period of tremendous economic growth and substantial stock market gains.
Actually we are now in the longest expansion ever recorded. The article is from last year.
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Old Yesterday, 07:38 AM
 
1,852 posts, read 624,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by luv4horses View Post
Part of the current expansion is due to stealing from the future. By building debt in a time of supposed prosperity.
Am I correct that you are implying that when deficit spending becomes more difficult or impossible to sustain, that expansions will revert to a shorter time frame?
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Old Yesterday, 09:41 AM
 
3,207 posts, read 2,736,853 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avondalist View Post
What explains this?

Has fiscal and monetary policy become better at prolonging expansions?

Has fiat currency allowed central banks to reflate bad debts more easily?

Has deficit spending made bonds less attractive, keeping money in the equity markets longer?
If you take a look at the 50s, then in 1951 growth went to 10%, in 1952 US almost got a recession, in 1953 growth went back up to 6% and in 1954 US entered a recession. Also in 1951 inflation went up to 10%.

I think the reason expansions are longer, is because monetery policy is much better at making sure the economy grows at a continous pace.
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Old Yesterday, 12:57 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
1,835 posts, read 2,116,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
If you take a look at the 50s, then in 1951 growth went to 10%, in 1952 US almost got a recession, in 1953 growth went back up to 6% and in 1954 US entered a recession. Also in 1951 inflation went up to 10%.

I think the reason expansions are longer, is because monetery policy is much better at making sure the economy grows at a continous pace.
I would agree with this, and also because technology and availability of near real-time information on almost all aspect of the economy allows the Fed, businesses, etc. to make better and more timely decisions to fine-tune and pull the right levers enough to keep things from getting as out of control too quickly as has happened before. It's definitely not perfect yet, but more information (as long as it's pretty accurate) doesn't hurt.
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Old Yesterday, 06:28 PM
 
Location: Denver
3,248 posts, read 2,688,322 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShampooBanana View Post
I would agree with this, and also because technology and availability of near real-time information on almost all aspect of the economy allows the Fed, businesses, etc. to make better and more timely decisions to fine-tune and pull the right levers enough to keep things from getting as out of control too quickly as has happened before. It's definitely not perfect yet, but more information (as long as it's pretty accurate) doesn't hurt.
Correct, if we are really improving in finance as we are in science and tech and medicine, then the result should be less waste due to herd mentality causing excessive booms and unemployment swelling recessions and a greater smoothening of investment markets, where volatility is diminished due to people having better predictive abilities. Already, in the last 100 years arbitrage have been worked out of most markets, making them more 'prefect' and less inefficient. And if you look at the boom bust cycle of early America, it appears that we've having far fewer hard crashes compared to the amount in the 1800s.
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Old Yesterday, 06:57 PM
 
Location: Southern Most New Jersey
1,160 posts, read 847,635 times
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We have been in a recession for years. Governments juice their economies to cover the fact.
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Old Yesterday, 07:44 PM
 
1,502 posts, read 341,234 times
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Show me someone who can't have a good time with $22 trillion and $1 trillion added to the party annually.......
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