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Old Yesterday, 10:44 AM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
5,818 posts, read 8,702,160 times
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Smoot-Hawley which were tariffs implemented by President Hoover during the Great Depression were blamed for extending the length and severity of the contraction. Most experts say that if these protectionist policies were not implemented the downturn would've been much much shorter.



Could the current wave of tariffs and protectionism lead to the same fate especially with the massive escalation on Friday? Scary!
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Old Yesterday, 05:03 PM
 
Location: The middle of nowhere
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I think we are headed for a second Great Depression as we speak. I think we will see a historic stock-market crash soon followed by the beginning of massive job losses going into the 2020 election. Trump will lose but it really doesn't matter because the damage will have already been done. I say the economic forecast for the next 7-10 years in the U.S. is beyond dire. Unemployment will top out at 20-25% sometime in the next couple of years before gradually decreasing over the course of about a decade.

The sad part is it didn't have to be and we'd be talking about a very different future had the 2016 election went the other way.
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Old Today, 05:25 AM
 
1,400 posts, read 718,054 times
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K374, in excess of a half-century, USA has annually spent more for products, than the values of products we produced. Annual trade deficits are always net detrimental to their nation's economies.

Trade deficits are particularly detrimental to their nation's numbers of jobs and those jobs' aggregate payrolls. The Import Certificate policy described within Wikipedia's Import Certificates article is superior to pure free trade or tariffs, or any other existing or proposed trade policy I'm aware of.

Similarly to tariffs and many other trade policies, the expenses of the adopting government are passed on to their purchasers of imported goods. Extremely high tariffs could promise USA's trade deficits of goods would be significantly reduced.

Import Certificates would certainly assure USA's trade deficits of goods would be significantly reduced, (if not entirely eliminated), even if the market prices of Import Certificates should ever plunge down to be pennies.

Refer to Wikipedia's Import Certificates article,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_Certificates
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Old Today, 09:43 AM
 
2,553 posts, read 660,894 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
I think we are headed for a second Great Depression as we speak. I think we will see a historic stock-market crash soon followed by the beginning of massive job losses going into the 2020 election. Trump will lose but it really doesn't matter because the damage will have already been done. I say the economic forecast for the next 7-10 years in the U.S. is beyond dire. Unemployment will top out at 20-25% sometime in the next couple of years before gradually decreasing over the course of about a decade.

The sad part is it didn't have to be and we'd be talking about a very different future had the 2016 election went the other way.
LOL! Have you ever thought of a career as a Stand Up Comic?
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Old Today, 03:37 PM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, originally from SF Bay Area
30,266 posts, read 55,163,096 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
LOL! Have you ever thought of a career as a Stand Up Comic?
Yeh, I donít think the tariffs will last long, in fact Iím just waiting for Hobby Lobby owner (Christian conservative) Steve Green to complain that they will go out of business since everything they sell comes from China.
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Old Today, 04:36 PM
 
Location: Niceville, FL
7,762 posts, read 16,236,324 times
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Smoot-Hawley will always make me think of the scene in Ferris Bueller where Ben Stein playing the history teacher is droning on about them.

I do think looking at real life examples of overly protectionist economies makes such things quite unattractive when reality hits. Take Brazil for an example- probably the most protectionist large economy out there. How many middle class Americans would trade their current lifestyle and purchasing power for what the middle class gets in Brazil?
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