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Old 08-24-2019, 01:57 PM
 
Location: New York Area
16,315 posts, read 6,438,690 times
Reputation: 12575

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The other day I was walking down one of two major retail avenues in White Plains, Mamaroneck Avenue, and its cross-major avenue East Post Road. The area is prosperous. The streets are well-maintained. Automobile and foot traffic is brisk. But there's something seriously wrong with the picture. About one-fifth or more of the store fronts are vacant, some since May 2017, when my law practice moved to a Grade B commercial space.

I do believe there are a variety of culprits, including larger, more modern enclosed malls, aggressive parking enforcement and most of all the Internet. People no longer need to shop in the stores. However I believe they would if the cost structure were able to compete with the Internet. More directly put, if commercial rents were lower, the prices in stores would not be so high. There are only a handful of places that sell pizza by the slice, or that you can otherwise get out of, for lunch, at less than $12. They have to pay the rent. Ditto non-foods.

Now the landlords aren't greedy. They have to pay their mortgages, based upon long ago real estate values.

Near where I reside, in a nearby village, there is a huge, largely vacant commercial building. A developer bought it, basically, for assumption of debt. The developer needs to put in around 270 residential units. The developer, not surprisingly, is encountering major pushback from the community, particularly since the 270 units would be on one-fourth the land that an adjacent 250 units currently occupy.

My point of both these vignettes is that someone is going to have to take a major bath, most likely the mortgage holders and their investors. Or are we going to sit there endlessly with deteriorating, vacant real estate, waiting for some "sucker" to pay its "true value." Don't count on that happening any time soon. The other option is an "adjustment of value" or a crash.
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Old 08-24-2019, 02:23 PM
 
5,422 posts, read 2,895,591 times
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Gyms, Nail salons, Take out, Pet grooming, dentist offices, Vape Stores, Karate dojos, dry cleaners, etc.. are all very viable businesses for strip malls.
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Old 08-24-2019, 02:33 PM
 
1,873 posts, read 628,244 times
Reputation: 1456
The US has way too much retail space.

https://qz.com/1032723/theres-much-m...-capita-level/

Quote:
The size of the issue becomes clear when comparing the square footage of retail space available for lease, both used and unused, per person in the US to other countries. In 2015—the most recent year with comparable data available—the US had about 23.6 sq ft of retail space per person available, according to estimates from PwC. As the Financial Times reported (paywall), that’s more than twice the amount in Australia, and roughly five times that of the UK and other European countries.
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Old 08-24-2019, 03:04 PM
 
Location: NY/LA
3,420 posts, read 2,879,764 times
Reputation: 2627
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
Gyms, Nail salons, Take out, Pet grooming, dentist offices, Vape Stores, Karate dojos, dry cleaners, etc.. are all very viable businesses for strip malls.
I heard on a Bigger Pockets podcast that laundromats are great too. Regular customers who return often and hang around, driving additional traffic to the other businesses.
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Old 08-24-2019, 03:35 PM
 
Location: Brawndo-Thirst-Mutilator-Nation
16,628 posts, read 16,786,178 times
Reputation: 12680
The dynamic with commercial-RE seems to be quite a bit different from residential. Just anecdotal, but I have seen various empty commercial-properties that are for sale, sit and sit and sit, decay and decay and decay.........yet the prices are not dropped. I do not know how common this is with
commercial-properties, but it seems more prevalent compared to residential-RE. Deep-pockets maybe?
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Old 08-24-2019, 06:39 PM
 
Location: New York Area
16,315 posts, read 6,438,690 times
Reputation: 12575
Quote:
Originally Posted by tickyul View Post
The dynamic with commercial-RE seems to be quite a bit different from residential. Just anecdotal, but I have seen various empty commercial-properties that are for sale, sit and sit and sit, decay and decay and decay.........yet the prices are not dropped. I do not know how common this is with
commercial-properties, but it seems more prevalent compared to residential-RE. Deep-pockets maybe?
The mortgage balance is a floor under the price. And if the lender takes the property back the last thing they want to do is recognize a loss on their books. Such a shakeout of non-existent "values" would restore some equilibrium and reality to the market, and aid consumers.
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Old 08-24-2019, 09:20 PM
 
6,445 posts, read 6,512,264 times
Reputation: 2966
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
The other day I was walking down one of two major retail avenues in White Plains, Mamaroneck Avenue, and its cross-major avenue East Post Road. The area is prosperous. The streets are well-maintained. Automobile and foot traffic is brisk. But there's something seriously wrong with the picture. About one-fifth or more of the store fronts are vacant, some since May 2017, when my law practice moved to a Grade B commercial space.

I do believe there are a variety of culprits, including larger, more modern enclosed malls, aggressive parking enforcement and most of all the Internet. People no longer need to shop in the stores. However I believe they would if the cost structure were able to compete with the Internet. More directly put, if commercial rents were lower, the prices in stores would not be so high. There are only a handful of places that sell pizza by the slice, or that you can otherwise get out of, for lunch, at less than $12. They have to pay the rent. Ditto non-foods.

Now the landlords aren't greedy. They have to pay their mortgages, based upon long ago real estate values.

Near where I reside, in a nearby village, there is a huge, largely vacant commercial building. A developer bought it, basically, for assumption of debt. The developer needs to put in around 270 residential units. The developer, not surprisingly, is encountering major pushback from the community, particularly since the 270 units would be on one-fourth the land that an adjacent 250 units currently occupy.

My point of both these vignettes is that someone is going to have to take a major bath, most likely the mortgage holders and their investors. Or are we going to sit there endlessly with deteriorating, vacant real estate, waiting for some "sucker" to pay its "true value." Don't count on that happening any time soon. The other option is an "adjustment of value" or a crash.
White Plains aint far from NYC, and cheaper living.

We need to depopulate NYC somewhat, push some people up to White Plains.
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Old 08-24-2019, 09:28 PM
 
6,445 posts, read 6,512,264 times
Reputation: 2966
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Zero View Post
I heard on a Bigger Pockets podcast that laundromats are great too. Regular customers who return often and hang around, driving additional traffic to the other businesses.
In Manhattan, there used to be lots of laundromats around because the tenement buildings not have enough room for a washing machine/dryer. But now lots of new developments are including washing machine/dryer in apartments. Or new renovations are including them.

Laundromats in Manhattan are quickly starting to disappear. I imagine places with newer housing will usually include its own washing centers.
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Old Yesterday, 12:16 AM
 
7,190 posts, read 3,972,273 times
Reputation: 15266
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
The other day I was walking down one of two major retail avenues in White Plains, Mamaroneck Avenue, and its cross-major avenue East Post Road. The area is prosperous. The streets are well-maintained. Automobile and foot traffic is brisk. But there's something seriously wrong with the picture. About one-fifth or more of the store fronts are vacant, some since May 2017, when my law practice moved to a Grade B commercial space.

I do believe there are a variety of culprits, including larger, more modern enclosed malls, aggressive parking enforcement and most of all the Internet. People no longer need to shop in the stores. However I believe they would if the cost structure were able to compete with the Internet. More directly put, if commercial rents were lower, the prices in stores would not be so high. There are only a handful of places that sell pizza by the slice, or that you can otherwise get out of, for lunch, at less than $12. They have to pay the rent. Ditto non-foods.

Now the landlords aren't greedy. They have to pay their mortgages, based upon long ago real estate values.

Near where I reside, in a nearby village, there is a huge, largely vacant commercial building. A developer bought it, basically, for assumption of debt. The developer needs to put in around 270 residential units. The developer, not surprisingly, is encountering major pushback from the community, particularly since the 270 units would be on one-fourth the land that an adjacent 250 units currently occupy.

My point of both these vignettes is that someone is going to have to take a major bath, most likely the mortgage holders and their investors. Or are we going to sit there endlessly with deteriorating, vacant real estate, waiting for some "sucker" to pay its "true value." Don't count on that happening any time soon. The other option is an "adjustment of value" or a crash.
At one time those commercial buildings were owned by individual local investors but they were often bought out by speculators holding large quantities of such along with bigger buildings in busier settings. Rates were raised as national brands filled many locations particularly in affluent areas, more to be seen in wealthy areas than to be necessarily profitable. Occupant owned properties were still viable as small businesses due to a lower rent factor but often found themselves forced to close as the next generation no longer wanted to operate the family owned business and selling the business would present the new owner with paying inflated rents to the point of nonviability.

When the supply exceeded the demand of those national brands it was more financially viable for the property owners to leave the stores vacant as tax write offs against their large portfolios than to lease the space at market driven rates. As those national brands consolidated through mergers and faced internet borne competition they no longer could bear the inflated rents and abandoned those minimally producing locations. There is nothing in sight to reverse the current trend.

Many people in upscale areas have a bias against rental housing and will fight tooth and nail to prevent its proliferation but are now faced with the ghost-towning effect of proliferating retail vacancies. Until those people come to grips with the reality that there can't be a viable small business for every empty location people like you will walk down the once thriving street and wonder what happened. Meanwhile their children will move to distant cities because affordable housing is not available and potential employers will not become established in the area because they cannot staff their businesses.
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Old Yesterday, 04:43 AM
 
72,982 posts, read 72,795,480 times
Reputation: 50494
Quote:
Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133 View Post
White Plains aint far from NYC, and cheaper living.

We need to depopulate NYC somewhat, push some people up to White Plains.
white plains can also be pretty costly .. my son lived in white plains , then moved to scarsdale and now is in ryebrook ... taxes in westchester on real estate can be killer as well as things like day care are so much more then here in queens .

basically any place in westchester that has a dedicated train station is going to be very expensive for the most part . there is a big difference in costs between rye and rye brook since rye has a dedicated station .

parts of white plains can be like living in manhattan.

if we decide to leave queens , we may look in to hartsdale in westchester .
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