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Old 08-31-2019, 10:00 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
12,549 posts, read 12,727,290 times
Reputation: 20041

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasLawyer2000 View Post
At what age did you start working? It's tough to go through a recession during the early years of your career because the smallest changes (loss of job, inability to get loans, etc.) has a huge impact on you and you can't weather it out because you hadn't had an opportunity to build up savings beyond an emergency fund.

Personally, I've been in a position where I could take advantage of the recessions as they hit... primarily because I had a healthy balance sheet.
I got my first hourly job when I was 12, but that's not relevant. I was also a slow learner. in January of 1973 I spent 5 hours in surgery and 10 days in intensive care without medical insurance, then 60 days convalescing, only to find that there was no job to go back to. Thank you, Richard Nixon. By '79 I had paid off all the bills, bought 5 acres of view and timbered property, developed power, road, septic, well, and built a small house. I had a nicely profitable contracting business, when mortgage rates went to 18% in the early '80s. I lost it all. By '86 I had purchased another 5 acres, and realized that depending on a market economy was a fool move.

All subsequent recessions were nicely profitable. The dotcom bust followed by 9/11 was a golden opportunity. I had bailed to cash waiting for the dotcom to straighten out, so when the NYSE re-opened I wasted no time going all in. 2008 was even better, since I bailed to bonds during falling interest rates, and by dumb luck hit the absolute bottom of the equities market with my buy order.

Now that I'm in my '70s, I am debt free and can weather any crisis. I figure the politicians will cost me a third of my SS in a few years and run Medicare out of money, but I'm in a huge Medicare supplement group with tens of thousands of members. SS is only a small part of my income. That's enough political kick the politicians will figure it out.

Yeah, I'm old and cynical and I don't trust any of them. School of Hard Knocks.
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Old Yesterday, 10:04 AM
 
Location: Scottsdale
1,180 posts, read 584,869 times
Reputation: 2129
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChessieMom View Post
There was an earlier thread on this same thing just recently.

I don’t think the article holds water given my sons income and mine, at his age. He’s much better off than I was.
I agree. I think Millenials are better prepared for a future recession (at least in IT) because there is age discrimination in that field. I work in IT (information technology) with many older workers who are not up-to-date with software engineering: Java 7.x or higher, MVC architecture, ORM, AWS, machine learning, TestNG, Spring AOP, JUnit, unittest, Docker, Azure, MongoDB, Selenium, Android, Swift, AngularJS, etc. These older workers are typically from Generation X or a little older (some gray area between our age group and the Baby Boomers). They are at very high risk for layoffs in IT and often are unable to find new jobs quickly. The problem is that a lot of these older IT workers are often in denial. I spoke to one Generation X mid-level manager who told me of a layoff in the month prior to my arrival. She told me she thought her experience set her well in management. But about 6 months later she was also laid off. Her technical knowledge was very outdated compared to the young computer science majors coming out of college. The company went on a hiring phase again about a year later but mostly with recent college graduates or an offshore team.

The problem is that for many older IT workers their technical skills have become obsolete. So, they typically try to go into mid-level management with the mindset that their age and experience makes them know how to "manage". But the number of management jobs is very small, and it is a high risk position due to company politics. They are often the first to go in layoffs. Behind-the-scenes, many younger software engineers also view managers as "old people who don't know anything useful" or "They don't do s--t". This is not always true, but the stigma is there.

The way for older workers to counter that is to revinvent themselves in middle age with another advanced degree. I did in middle age. I found that my undergraduate training in physics from the 80s was very useful in understanding databases in modern times. The concept of a database as a 3-dimensional structure overlaps well with techniques of math I learned in mechanical engineering and quantum physics. I got another master's degree in middle age and excel now at data warehouses and database ETL testing. That field of "data science" is in very high demand. I also mastered python and SQL. So, I am relatively safe compared to other Generation X workers who try to move to management. They are at high risk for layoffs when it comes. Many already have been laid off even in this booming economy. Some companies just put their IT management jobs offshore or replace them with automated software - lol. I know the latter is happening because I also studied artificial intelligence the past two years intensely like the A* algorithm or min-max algorithm. To stay employed it is best to upgrade skills given the "winds" of technology which is currently moving towards automation and artificial intelligence - both heavily dependent on data warehouses or large databases.

Personally, I wish companies would recognize the long-term commitment of older workers. If their technical skills are outdated, then they could help "retrain" them rather than laying them off. But that is often what happens.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/...ite/479468001/

Last edited by grad_student200; Yesterday at 10:25 AM..
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Old Yesterday, 10:12 AM
 
1,202 posts, read 553,274 times
Reputation: 1325
Quote:
Originally Posted by BECLAZONE View Post
If you can't see beyond "everything sucks", then you're not willing to view all the knock-on effects of quantitative easing. I know that for a short time, your nation, (or whatever nation), benefits from buying with money that previously didn't exist, but the market soon catches up, and money already built up, is devalued. I also know that people are believing themselves to be better off, because of "larger" pay cheques, but rarely know what their currency is actually worth, so don't know they are worse off, until that is, their debts start mounting up.


Last time I received responses like there have been are on here, they were from people owned by Monsanto, just wanting to silence me.

You see, I know there are puppets with vested interests, or who benefit from skimming whatever market, so there will be nothing of meaning tolerated.

Also, I know I post short answers, that may seem meaningless, but there are a few out there, that always understand my point. Sadly, I see at least three on here, that don't. But hey, I understand, you're Americans, you shoot anything you don't understand. (I'm not saying all Americans are like this, but many sure give out that message.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by BECLAZONE View Post
Has anyone thought of paying off their credit card bill, by drawing cash on the same credit card, then paying the bill off with that cash?

Just wondering, because that can be done. The banks don't like it though, but have to take the cash.

It won't work though, if you've already drawn too much.
With this kind of economic thinking, I'm not sure you're in a position to be preaching about the consequences of quantitative easing.
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Old Yesterday, 10:17 AM
 
2,818 posts, read 1,823,287 times
Reputation: 6278
It’s pretty amazing how ignorant some people are about the statistics behind the Great Recession and how hard hit some areas were.

Just because your area or you personally weren’t effected doesn’t mean there weren’t large swaths of the population that was.

The government and central bank responses around the world were unprecedented for a reason.
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Old Yesterday, 12:46 PM
 
Location: Orange County, CA
1,951 posts, read 1,977,301 times
Reputation: 931
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker View Post
This forum does not reflect the general population of the United States. The demographics have been posted before which showed that the average city data member is much more educated and makes a substantially higher income than the average United States citizen. The article is correct, for the general population that is.
Yeah, kinda like looking at a Bizzaro World lmao

Considering how Millenials barely have any money/wealth/assets as it is, it's hard to say how much more they will be affected by the next significant recession...
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Old Yesterday, 01:27 PM
 
176 posts, read 108,100 times
Reputation: 263
Even good simple advice works for millennials. They want to be special snowflakes but the rules still apply. Avoid debit. Life within your means. Keep a cash cushion. Work hard and use skills/education to move up the food chain.

Gurus with simple advice like Dave Ramsey have it right.
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Old Yesterday, 03:09 PM
 
453 posts, read 1,037,001 times
Reputation: 608
Quote:
Originally Posted by peta2013 View Post
Even good simple advice works for millennials. They want to be special snowflakes but the rules still apply. Avoid debit. Life within your means. Keep a cash cushion. Work hard and use skills/education to move up the food chain.

Gurus with simple advice like Dave Ramsey have it right.
This is beyond most people. I have yet to run into someone under 45 who doesn't think they are a billionaire. We are going to see more of the same. People don't learn.
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Old Yesterday, 06:25 PM
 
36 posts, read 13,735 times
Reputation: 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Look, nobody is disputing the Earnings Curve.

What we're disputing is the propaganda and disinformation in the article.

There are Boomers and Tweeners who suffered far worse than Millennials ever could, but Annie-girl ignores that for propaganda purposes to over exaggerate the plight of Millennials.

Are you going to get a job in June 1970?

No, because you're in the middle of a freaking recession.

That recession ends in November 1970.

Recovery? What recovery? Exactly 3 years later, you're right back into another recession, this one lasting 16 months or just two months shy of the "Great Recession" (snicker).

And recovery? What recovery? You're plagued by high Monetary and Demand-pull Inflation and high interest rates.

Less than 5 years later, you're right back into another recession.

And recovery? Are you kidding?

One year later you're right back into another recession, this one lasting 16 months or just two months shy of the "Great Recession" (snicker).

And, what recovery?

Is that what Millennials are up against?

Because anyone who thinks they are doesn't need a good psychiatrist, they need a team of really good psychiatrists.

And student loans?

Are you serious?

Please.

There was no technology on campus for Boomers and Tweeners.

The only technology was big giant IBM or Hewlett-Packard mainframes hooked into terminals with the ugly orange or green characters at the registrar's office.

The university did not issue laptops and notebooks and smart phones to professors, TAs or RAs. Everything was done on paper.

There was no ethernet, Fire-Wire or Wi-Fi.

If you had technology, it's because you were lugging around a big giant Texas Instrument engineering or calculus calculator.

Maybe Boomers and Tweeners didn't have student loans, but they had something else: High Mortgage Rates.

Boomers and Tweeners didn't burn up their cash on student loans, but they did burn up their cash on a 16.35% mortgage interest rate.

Do the math.

"They re-financed."

You know what? You're right. They did.

That 16.35% mortgage rate they got in 1980 they re-financed 15 years later in 1995 to 9.22%.

What were mortgage rates last year, 4.54%? Yup. In 2017, they were 3.99%.

Do the math.

Something else.

In 1980 there was no such thing as GMC Financing, or Ford Motor Financing or Toyota Financing.

If you wanted to buy a car, you got a loan through your bank or credit union and they always insisted on a 10% down-payment.

No such thing as 60-month or 72-month loans, either. It was 24 months. Maybe if you had really good credit or you or your family were good customers at the bank or credit union you might get 36 months.

To suggest that Millennials have suffered is a grotesque exaggeration not supported by any facts.
You're being intentionally misleading with some figures.

>Mortgage rates

It didn't take until 1995 to get to sub-10 rates, you could get that by 1986:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

Those refinances also created tons of equity all the way down. Millennials won't see their equity explode in such a similar fashion unless rates manage to go from. 4% to -9%. I know boomers who bought property in Boston for $50k in the 1970s, now it's a money printing machine for $6k/mo in rent, $1.1mm easily if they sell.

>Unemployment

There has never been nearly as slow of a recovery in the civilian unemployment rate since the GR:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

You can clearly see recovery in the 70s (from lower unemployment rates) was much quicker both times.

>Car loans

It is a lot easier to put 10% down when the values aren't nearly as inflated due to low interest rates. In a low rate environment, which naturally inflates values, it's harder to require the same down payment as a higher rate environment.

The rest of your rants about technology on campus as a student, I'm not sure what that has to do with economics.

EDIT: And in an earlier post, you very incorrectly claimed only a "handful" of housing markets were affected by the last recession, which is also not true. The national aggregate fell significantly, especially with the recovery taking over a decade, that's a lot of value lost to inflation:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

Last edited by smc733; Yesterday at 06:30 PM.. Reason: Add housing data
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Old Yesterday, 06:46 PM
 
2,281 posts, read 4,553,651 times
Reputation: 1519
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1insider View Post
Ben Carlson posted an excellent response this morning to the article the OP posted. He suggests the next recession may be an opportunity for millennials rather than destruction..
I agree that I don't think a recession is the worst thing for most millennials. I actually think it will be the worst for baby boomers; and they have already suffered through costs increasing on a fixed budget.

So if millennials don't have large student loan debts and can keep their job, the next recession/depression could offer them a lot of opportunities. And when you are young enough you can invest in stocks and buy/rent at a bargain and sit back and wait. Its the older generations that suffer more. Not to mention, it won't be that they raise interest rates, so nobody has to worry about paying a higher interest rate back. Many companies also lay off the higher paid management people which a lot would be those 40+ when a recession hits, and they keep the lower paid employees (20-40 years old for the most part). Just my opinion, but I think a recession is a bigger issue for those 60+ than those 20 to 40 years old.
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Old Today, 06:29 AM
 
36 posts, read 13,735 times
Reputation: 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by grad_student200 View Post
I agree. I think Millenials are better prepared for a future recession (at least in IT) because there is age discrimination in that field. I work in IT (information technology) with many older workers who are not up-to-date with software engineering: Java 7.x or higher, MVC architecture, ORM, AWS, machine learning, TestNG, Spring AOP, JUnit, unittest, Docker, Azure, MongoDB, Selenium, Android, Swift, AngularJS, etc. These older workers are typically from Generation X or a little older (some gray area between our age group and the Baby Boomers). They are at very high risk for layoffs in IT and often are unable to find new jobs quickly. The problem is that a lot of these older IT workers are often in denial. I spoke to one Generation X mid-level manager who told me of a layoff in the month prior to my arrival. She told me she thought her experience set her well in management. But about 6 months later she was also laid off. Her technical knowledge was very outdated compared to the young computer science majors coming out of college. The company went on a hiring phase again about a year later but mostly with recent college graduates or an offshore team.

The problem is that for many older IT workers their technical skills have become obsolete. So, they typically try to go into mid-level management with the mindset that their age and experience makes them know how to "manage". But the number of management jobs is very small, and it is a high risk position due to company politics. They are often the first to go in layoffs. Behind-the-scenes, many younger software engineers also view managers as "old people who don't know anything useful" or "They don't do s--t". This is not always true, but the stigma is there.

The way for older workers to counter that is to revinvent themselves in middle age with another advanced degree. I did in middle age. I found that my undergraduate training in physics from the 80s was very useful in understanding databases in modern times. The concept of a database as a 3-dimensional structure overlaps well with techniques of math I learned in mechanical engineering and quantum physics. I got another master's degree in middle age and excel now at data warehouses and database ETL testing. That field of "data science" is in very high demand. I also mastered python and SQL. So, I am relatively safe compared to other Generation X workers who try to move to management. They are at high risk for layoffs when it comes. Many already have been laid off even in this booming economy. Some companies just put their IT management jobs offshore or replace them with automated software - lol. I know the latter is happening because I also studied artificial intelligence the past two years intensely like the A* algorithm or min-max algorithm. To stay employed it is best to upgrade skills given the "winds" of technology which is currently moving towards automation and artificial intelligence - both heavily dependent on data warehouses or large databases.

Personally, I wish companies would recognize the long-term commitment of older workers. If their technical skills are outdated, then they could help "retrain" them rather than laying them off. But that is often what happens.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/...ite/479468001/
There are a few things in here that do not align with the realities I personally see in the industry when it comes to managers. Management seems to be the one thing that does not get offshored, architects are the next least likely, followed by at least a core team of engineers, though they may offshore easy and repeatable code components. I've found the code quality of many offshore teams poor, and an operation that cares about quality puts more thought into their model than just offshoring everything for the cheapest price. QA seems to be the most likely to go off-shore, followed by system administration going heavily to one of the handful of cloud providers, or going to vendors. PM, BA and anything requiring people skills seems to stay within the org.

Management careers require keeping certain skills up to date, too, so those that get laid off are likely those who became a manager by rank and never learned how to excel at it, the Peter principle. Those who find a way into management will struggle if they don't get something like an MBA, or get certifications in areas like a CSM, PMP, etc. If you do have those, your career in management can take off, provided you challenge yourself and get relevant experience. These jobs are not as rare as you think, people on the management track from my experience have much more stable employment, they're usually deciding who to cut. Of course, ageism might keep you out of the hip start-ups once you're beyond 40, the linked article is very good.

Neither the A* algorithm, nor the min-max algorithm can replace a management job that deserves to exist. If a manager can be replaced with today's AI, I'd argue they were never really a manager, they were a coordinator or glorified checklist maintainer. McKinsey and Company's huge AI study from 2017 ranked IT management one of the least vulnerable careers to automation. At best, today's technology can free up a good manager's time by helping to reduce paperwork. Agree that data warehouses and machine learning (I don't really like calling it AI, which is little more than a buzz-word), is a good area to be in right now.
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