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Old 11-12-2019, 12:43 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,895 posts, read 10,958,542 times
Reputation: 6393

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
Agreed.

Although fiat debt ... is essential in providing supports and relief for our poor.
Agreed.

Metals-based money system is to fiat money system what copper wire telecommunications is to cellular and other wireless telecommunications, reaches more people faster.

And everyone benefits from the leverage, though, true, some in greater proportions than others.

Yes, there is a risk that debt leverage could overwhelm the ability to produce, but I don't think the US economy is anywhere near that point.

That doesn't mean that there aren't any gross and disgusting inefficiencies that need to be fixed. There certainly are. And they are not healthy.

All the best!
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:18 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas (Winchester)
448 posts, read 330,013 times
Reputation: 479
It sounds like the bubble has already inflated and is just waiting for some exogenous event to pop it. Stay vigilant.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/13/b...gtype=Homepage

Last edited by mitchmiller9; 11-14-2019 at 09:55 PM..
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Old 11-15-2019, 02:41 PM
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
3,418 posts, read 2,120,542 times
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Corporate debt is well under control today...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCBCMDPMVCE

Federal debt ratio is rising, of course. Not a crisis yet IMO, but the future doesn't look good to me...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

Student loan debt seems out of control to me, but FRED only publishes the total debt amount (a little over $1.6T today), and not reported as a ratio of anything. I guess I could do the division myself, but I'm feeling lazy today.

Last edited by hikernut; 11-15-2019 at 02:56 PM..
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Old 11-16-2019, 12:42 PM
 
156 posts, read 22,523 times
Reputation: 76
Did Warren say anything about forgiving student loan?
Or is it Bernie?
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Old 11-17-2019, 11:20 PM
 
7,097 posts, read 6,836,115 times
Reputation: 3331
When you say debt bubble, do you mean debt with no collateral?

The RE bubble basically a debt bubble but with RE as the collateral.

Is that the difference this time, no collateral?
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Old 11-18-2019, 02:17 AM
 
26,897 posts, read 29,317,079 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Questioner1981 View Post
Yah, let the good times roll. I remember that song from the seventies just can't place who wrote it.
A: The Cars.
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Old 11-18-2019, 02:18 AM
 
26,897 posts, read 29,317,079 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
Correct. A massive global debt bubble. When you see 100-year bonds yielding 1.2% you know it is a massive bubble.
Definitely.
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Old 11-20-2019, 10:43 AM
 
128 posts, read 20,827 times
Reputation: 222
Debt has always been an issue especially since WWII. It can get out of control very easily. But it also can go long stretches of use without catastrophe.
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Old 11-22-2019, 06:29 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
3,972 posts, read 1,809,616 times
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Once upon a time kingdoms all had their own gold. They'd fight over it. They'd steal it. They'd run out of it. So along comes Bretton Woods and says...this is silly and too inflexible....let's all peg our currencies to the dollar, and then the dollar will be the only peg to maintained to gold.

And all were happy.

Then Nixon said....we don't have enough gold to support the dollars created. How about we call it a relic and pull of the all time best spin and call it an economy of confidence.

Arguably, part of the world saw through this BS, and the US interest rates spiked. After all, why would OPEC trade Black Gold for No Gold? But as people looked around.....there really wasn't a decent alternative. Half the world was under communism. The Mark was in a divided country....and nobody needs the damn sterling again. So everyone just said...ok, but you're paying me for it....and interest rates went sky high.

Slowly they came down as people calmed down. The US didn't waste much time running up huge tabs, but hey, it was to fight the communists. So there was an S&L bust....nobody knows what that means anyway. If they didn't rob the banks with guns, we don't care.

Bush Sr. knew everyone would understand that he needed to bring back sanity after the fall of the Communists and everyone would be ready to pay their fair share....so, rather than duck requirements, he kept the dollar strong by raising taxes despite promising not to.

The people understood and said we understand.

Wait, nevermind, they said **** off George and got Bill Clinton instead. Yet all the crazy outsourcing and tech seemed to be working....while the deficits were enormous, by the end of the 2nd term it looked like the government was finally going to start cutting into her debts....of course there were plenty of signs that perhaps the .com boom may be a bubble itself...and the realization came that only in the peak of a bubble were we floating positive. And then the bubble burst....and we elected W.

W tackled a breakdown economy by going to war. And, for some very strange reason, the Fed at the time decided that 9/11 was a good enough reason to lower interest rates, rather than raise them. While the .com bubble could be shaken off as a really bad hangover....the Fed had the good stuff....a drip of money to make us feel good. And the more that dripped, the more we loved Greenspan and didn't care if W was off shooting $1T of fireworks overseas.

But what to invest in....I guess homes....and so homes bubbled as did everything attached to it. Fair lenders realized they were going to starve if they didn't play the game and the game was good....attracting all kinds of people to the nebulous loan business. And then we popped again.

But who got stuck with the bad loans? The banks sold plenty at a loss....but what about the other stuff. I mean, just from MBNA, bank of america wrote off $19.6B in CC loans in 2008, $29.6B in 2009 and $22.6B in 2010. And didn't they have about $100B in litigation based on bad home loan sales to the government? Whatever, that settled for $20B.

So who went to jail? Nobody. Did the CEO get kicked out? No, but he did volunteer to give up some pay in 2009, as he borrowed $80B in emergency money from the US Government and just months before told shareholders he was at the helm of the strongest bank that existed.

Naw, screw that. Let's make WFC go through a couple of CEOs. Those are easy to find right? I mean, opening some $0 checking accounts is far worse than say....bankrupting the country.

Yet we didn't die. The dollar didn't get trashed.

So....why bother? The parents are gone bro. Just keep partying right here in the USA. Let's ring in deficits because we can...and the rest of the world will love us for keeping things going. But hey, if you're going to start buying gold, the government wants to know. No particular reason. They just would like to hire people to keep track of that sort of thing.
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Old 11-23-2019, 06:11 PM
 
Location: Brawndo-Thirst-Mutilator-Nation
17,135 posts, read 17,230,032 times
Reputation: 13442
Is a bubble, still a bubble, if it will not (never?) pop???

Can you fee me........these things can go on forever, Fedgov willing!
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