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Old 11-23-2019, 06:33 PM
 
26,897 posts, read 29,317,079 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anononcty View Post
Debt has always been an issue especially since WWII. It can get out of control very easily. But it also can go long stretches of use without catastrophe.
The bolded is the very crux of the problem with debt. Everything can seem fine for a long time, until, all of a sudden, BOOM, it's not so fine any more. The reversal can happen very quickly.
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Old 11-24-2019, 06:20 AM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
3,970 posts, read 1,809,616 times
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Sadly, we may well find out the next bubble is in US wage rates, and the corresponding debt bubble is nearly a symptom of the overall bubble that American policy has worked hard to commoditize their labor force with the rest of the world, and the rest of the world doesn't pay nearly so dearly for labor, or care that much about citizen well being. But, so long as it's allowed, we'll let everyone live on debt for awhile until they figure it out.
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Old 11-24-2019, 08:04 AM
 
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I can't recall a time when I've ever had much of an issue living within my means during recession or recovery. I have no problem with the way things are in this country and would certainly not want the alternative. Most things are well within control of the individual. There are certainly some changes at a national level that one must adjust to, but for policies on a statewide basis, one merely needs to go somewhere that is more desirable to them (i.e. lower COL). I don't buy into the Armeggedon nonsense. I was told in 2009 the world was going to end....it did not. I was told when Trump became President that the market was going to crash....it did not. We are currently at full employment in most areas of the country and the economy is prosperous. Will we have another recession? Of course. Will it be the end of the world? NO.
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Old 11-24-2019, 12:35 PM
 
Location: Divided Tribes of America
14,295 posts, read 5,840,417 times
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Debt is a big problem, but it’s not a “bubble.” A bubble is when people buy assets thinking that prices will keep going up, even when said assets are greatly overvalued.
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Old 11-25-2019, 11:40 PM
 
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I've seen several economic projections in the past few weeks, most starting with the general economy then getting into commercial development and construction (my field). They all seem to anticipate a soft downturn in the next year or two, though they typically say there's more risk on the downside due to the national leadership, trade wars, etc.

One of these focused on housing in particular. We've built less housing than needed due to household formation. This is why vacancies have tightened and prices have risen so much, to vastly oversimplify things.
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Old 11-26-2019, 08:37 AM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
27,213 posts, read 64,537,468 times
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Looking at the young people I know, most are massively in debt. Typically from three things: 1. Student loans. 2. New car loan. 3. veterinary bill loan for a severe illness of a prized pet.
I think things need to go backwards a little bit to where students only borrow money they absolutely must have to complete school, not for high powered gaming computers, IPhone 11, social life. Yes I am well aware of the costs of college education now. I am aware that student loans are necessary. I am also aware that college students tend to borrow more than they really need so they can afford to live "decently" (new computer, Iphone, data, fiber internet, not having the share a bedroom, living in a nice location, having their own car instead of having to bum a ride, take a bus, etc.) too much borrowing for convenience. 2. Car lenders need to stop lending to kids who cannot yet afford a new car. I was amazed a few years ago when my daughter got a loan for a new car upon graduation. She had no income, no guaranteed job, no work history, no savings, no down payment, she had not even received her degree yet. All she had was that she was on track to graduate in a few months. Want a new car? Sure, here you go. 3. the veterinary thing astounds me. It seems like all kids have $3000 - $5000 in vet bills on credit from trying to save some cat or dog or ferret or wherever (which usually died anyway). Animals get sick and they die sometimes. You do not spend thousands of dollars trying to prolong their lives (and thereby extend their suffering). If you get that attached, you probably should not have a pet.


It is funny but I can think of 18 different kids all with the same triumvirate of debt. Their attitude is not I need to wrok on this for eyars and get out of debt before I buy anything else. It is "Bernie needs to pay off my student debt so I can get a newer car and buy a house and a new pedigreed pet.
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Old 11-26-2019, 04:15 PM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
6,549 posts, read 3,181,829 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
Looking at the young people I know
This is the sound of a post starting out that will very likely proceed to chum the thread waters with a bunch of manufactured information that is based more on assumptions more than fact.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
It is funny but I can think of 18 different kids all with the same triumvirate of debt.
I'd say the odds you know 18 young people who have high debt burden partly from treating a sick pet are about 0%.
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Old 11-26-2019, 08:44 PM
 
1,926 posts, read 466,857 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
Looking at the young people I know, most are massively in debt. Typically from three things: 1. Student loans. 2. New car loan. 3. veterinary bill loan for a severe illness of a prized pet.

Don't forget taking an Uber just to get to your next Uber ride and then ordering out on Uber Eats.

#Trendyandindebt
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Old 11-26-2019, 09:10 PM
 
1,353 posts, read 470,101 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freak80 View Post
Debt is a big problem, but it’s not a “bubble.” A bubble is when people buy assets thinking that prices will keep going up, even when said assets are greatly overvalued.

The debt "bubble" occurs when people (or businesses or countries) load up on low interest rate (or zero or negative interest rate) debt, then rates go up. Since debt (bond) prices go up as rates go down and conversely go down as rates go up, the "said assets (debt) are greatly overvalued". Refinancing the debt at higher interest rates becomes more and more expensive.


Having financed my first new car at 8.5% and having considered myself lucky to assume an 8% mortgage when rates where more than 12%, I've welcomed the years of interest-free financing for furniture and appliances.



These days of low interest rates, though, will pass. Folks who have paid $300,000 to $500,000, borrowed at 4%, for 1200 sq ft bungalows will be hard pressed to find buyers who can afford payments on the $300,000 to $500,000 mortgage at 8%. Prices will drop accordingly.
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Old 11-27-2019, 01:12 AM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
27,213 posts, read 64,537,468 times
Reputation: 32105
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
This is the sound of a post starting out that will very likely proceed to chum the thread waters with a bunch of manufactured information that is based more on assumptions more than fact.


I'd say the odds you know 18 young people who have high debt burden partly from treating a sick pet are about 0%.
Lots of difficulties with communication concepts going on here: 1. No understanding of a discussion of an observation. 2. Assumptions and stereotypes based on nothing. 3 Personal attacks based on no knowledge whatsoever of the position taken.



Cannot really respond to such things in a meaningful manner. I will discuss with the adults instead. Sorry.
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