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Old 11-09-2019, 09:46 PM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
6,478 posts, read 3,144,316 times
Reputation: 12431

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Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
Here are some examples from some of my most commonly purchased items:


January 2019 November 2019


Coconut milk $3.19 $3.99


Coconut oil $6.19 $7.49


Sardines $2.79 $3.19


Organic PB $4.29 $4.79


Bag of carrots $2.89 $3.29


Frozen fruit $3.15 $3.55


Guacamole $3.99 $4.99
(tub shrank and
price increased)

Raw honey $4.19 $4.89
Ahh so your determination that everyone else is suffering magical inflation is based partially on the assumption that most others list coconut milk, organic PB, raw honey, and sardines as their more common items.

Nuthin' like science....
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Old 11-09-2019, 11:17 PM
 
1,896 posts, read 450,072 times
Reputation: 2851
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Ahh so your determination that everyone else is suffering magical inflation is based partially on the assumption that most others list coconut milk, organic PB, raw honey, and sardines as their more common items.

Nuthin' like science....

Ahh yeah I guess the magical price fairy just magically raised these prices over the past year. Price fairies give inflation a bad name.
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Old 11-10-2019, 03:20 AM
 
74,543 posts, read 74,165,131 times
Reputation: 52023
never confuse your personal cost of living with just a price change index like the cpi ..

the cpi does not care how many times you buy something vs me ...

i am willing to sub totally different categories when prices get to high ... i use a lot of no sugar added klondikes . i will never buy them if they are not on sale . i will buy something else totally to snack on .

the cpi does not consider the quality differences in items ... i tend to buy higher end goods which can see higher price increases yet last way longer .

back in the 1990's everyone laughed when i spent 1k on a northface jacket , shell and pants ... here it is decades later and i am still wearing these every winter .


all the cpi does is measure price changes in lots of things so it can take the temperature of the 1500 mini economies that make up this country ..

like i said , more than 4 years in retirement and we have yet to take our first inflation adjustment living in nyc ...

so all our personal cost of living index's are going to vary
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Old 11-10-2019, 08:19 PM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
6,478 posts, read 3,144,316 times
Reputation: 12431
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
never confuse your personal cost of living with just a price change index like the cpi ..
This.

The hilarity of this person lecturing others about lacking proper grounding for research while publishing his personal price fluctuations for coconut milk is amusing.

It isn't about whether a magical price fairy did anything, it's about whether anecdotal selected obscure items for one person is relevant.
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Old 11-11-2019, 01:36 AM
 
2,899 posts, read 1,885,922 times
Reputation: 6464
And I’m no economist and maybe I’m talking crazy here, but looking at the percentage swing on a bunch of random personal items that represent a small percentage of an overall budget seems silly. That’s like basic budget variance analysis.

So let’s say I spend $50 a year on my coconut milk. It doubles and I start paying $100 a year. That’s a big percentage swing in “inflation”, but is it really as painful as say my $200 a month electric bill going up 7%? 14x12=$168 increase.

One hurts the budget way more and could be harder to substitute out of or cut consumption outright.

Last edited by Thatsright19; 11-11-2019 at 01:44 AM..
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Old 11-11-2019, 02:53 AM
 
74,543 posts, read 74,165,131 times
Reputation: 52023
personal rates of inflation are all over the map

someone who refinanced at these rates likely saved enough to pay for all the increases they got and still save more money and even go to star bucks daily ..

millions of people have their rents capped by rent stabilization as well . 1/2 of all rentals in nyc and the boroughs , representing millions is rent stabilized .

many seniors in cities have programs that cap rents if they qualify .


so trying to compare ones personal cost of living to an index of price changes is nuts
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Old 11-11-2019, 05:57 PM
 
9,406 posts, read 4,140,471 times
Reputation: 1848
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
personal rates of inflation are all over the map

someone who refinanced at these rates likely saved enough to pay for all the increases they got and still save more money and even go to star bucks daily ..

millions of people have their rents capped by rent stabilization as well . 1/2 of all rentals in nyc and the boroughs , representing millions is rent stabilized .

many seniors in cities have programs that cap rents if they qualify .


so trying to compare ones personal cost of living to an index of price changes is nuts
I agree. There are so many personal variables.

IMO more important than inflation is std. of living. Maybe even harder to pin down, but it combines whatever inflation you have endured along with all the benefits of new technologies. We all have and use things non-existent not long ago, like the cell phone that can add huge value to one's life. And then we have things like cars and houses which are so much better than years ago, skewing the usefulness of inflation numbers.
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Old 11-11-2019, 06:05 PM
 
Location: Haiku
5,608 posts, read 2,968,860 times
Reputation: 8053
Quote:
Originally Posted by lchoro View Post
Inflation expectations are derived from bond yields. Since the central bank is the main purchaser of the bonds, they can manipulate it if they're predisposed to signal more aggressive easing.
That's not exactly right.
Social Security and Medicare and other intergovernmental agencies own 27% of the debt.
Foreign investors own 30% of the debt.
Banks and private investors including mutual funds own 15%
The Federal Reserve owns 12% of the debt.

So the central bank is way down the list. Even during QE the Fed bought only a couple percent of debt.
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Old 11-12-2019, 09:55 AM
 
8,380 posts, read 7,575,759 times
Reputation: 6846
It is about the flow. They bought all of the net new supply which drove down interest rates. When they buy up the entire deficit in the budget, that money is spent in the economy like any other funds and a portion of the funds is retained after private profits to reinvest in the markets.

They also engaged with foreign central banks, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds to boost purchases of US equities and fixed-income assets.
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Old 11-13-2019, 01:19 AM
 
Location: Haiku
5,608 posts, read 2,968,860 times
Reputation: 8053
Quote:
Originally Posted by lchoro View Post
It is about the flow. They bought all of the net new supply which drove down interest rates. When they buy up the entire deficit in the budget, that money is spent in the economy like any other funds and a portion of the funds is retained after private profits to reinvest in the markets.

They also engaged with foreign central banks, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds to boost purchases of US equities and fixed-income assets.
In 2017 the Federal Reserve held $2.54 trillion in US Treasuries. In 2018 that had decreased to $2.30 trillion for a net loss of $240 billion. In other words they sold that amount of US Treasuries. The US deficit in that period was $780 billion. So the Fed sold rather than bought securities and did not at all buy all the US deficit.

The Fed is not buying US debt and the Chinese and Japanese , who have been huge consumers of debt, are selling, not buying, and this is actually a huge problem for the US. It is going to drive bond yields up to attract buyers which means even more debt to service the interest on those bonds. For long term investors high interest is good but mortgages and other consumer debt will become more expensive.
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