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Old 12-01-2019, 03:58 AM
 
3,999 posts, read 1,701,154 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
We all know that the paper dollar is constantly losing purchasing power, and that all fiat currencies eventually fail. On a scale from 1-10, how likely is the USD to collapse in the next 3 decades? With 1 being an infintesimally small probability and 10 being an absolute certainty.

Why or why not is a dollar failure likely, how would a currency collapse happen, what effects would it have on American society and the global economy, and what should a prudent saver do to protect himself? Are precious metals, land/property, or even Bitcoin good protection measures?
I recently happened to transit through China recently . Outside looked like a industrial wasteland but the airport interiors are way better than the US airports with so many brands I havent even seen in teh US airports. And the fleet - Air China, Eva, South China, China air with their numerous 777s lined up. Call them commies, dictatorship or third world or whatever you want, but the progress they have made is scary and to be seen with our own eyes.

And if the "International businessmen" think they are going to be better off in China than in US, they wouldnt bat an eyelid before doing so.
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Old 12-01-2019, 04:41 AM
 
6,979 posts, read 3,267,583 times
Reputation: 18176
*yawn* The sky is falling crew...


watched a documentary on the world econ system. And the POWERFUL ENTITIES that decide the system.
My Dollar doesn't touch any of those world class criminals....otherwise the banks or Investment firms.

An entire County toppled from these Fraudsters....

What makes the USA immune to this? Nothing really.....We are completely capable of ruining our capital gains and international trades by one hand shake.....
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Old 12-01-2019, 09:28 AM
 
Location: In a vehicle.
5,435 posts, read 3,458,039 times
Reputation: 8936
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
We all know that the paper dollar is constantly losing purchasing power, and that all fiat currencies eventually fail. On a scale from 1-10, how likely is the USD to collapse in the next 3 decades? With 1 being an infinitesimally small probability and 10 being an absolute certainty.

Why or why not is a dollar failure likely, how would a currency collapse happen, what effects would it have on American society and the global economy, and what should a prudent saver do to protect himself? Are precious metals, land/property, or even Bitcoin good protection measures?
I'm betting more on that I won't be alive in 20. So have fun kids! (I'm 59.5 with COPD and Previous CHF)
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Old 12-01-2019, 05:14 PM
 
8,658 posts, read 5,393,928 times
Reputation: 14609
Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger View Post
Most empires last 200-300 years. We're at the end of our run.
The US attained the advent of its empire, or at least of world-significance, sometime shortly after the Civil War. Call it 1870 (though entry into the Long Depression, that started in 1873, would be inauspicious commencement of empire). By this measure, there are at least 50 years to go, before becoming completely stale and rotten.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shanv3 View Post
I recently happened to transit through China recently . ... Call them commies, dictatorship or third world or whatever you want, but the progress they have made is scary and to be seen with our own eyes.
They're not "commies" in the Marxist-Leninist sense... at all. But they are a top-down, bureaucratic authoritarian state, which is using material prosperity to placate what would otherwise have been a restive and discontented upper-middle-class. Said class is the sort that's responsible for upheavals. If its energies can be harnesses to work within the system, rather than to revolt, then the system can endure.

But can it outright prosper? To supplant the US, China would have to do more than to merely increase what it's already been doing. It needs a transformative change.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Disgustedman View Post
I'm betting more on that I won't be alive in 20. So have fun kids! (I'm 59.5 with COPD and Previous CHF)
Perhaps the best long-term-planning strategy is simply to die. And I say this without any attempt at snarkiness, condescension, or lame foray into sophomoric irony.
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Old 12-01-2019, 08:39 PM
 
4,760 posts, read 2,876,389 times
Reputation: 11517
Money or no money, the "USA reign" will come to an end sooner or later.

We've had a, what, 300-350 years reign of "the world" with the dollar.
Even the Holy Roman Empire lasted just 1000 years, we've enjoyed a third of that time as the "big brother to the world'.

The dollar will eventually collapse, be devalued, be devastated, whether sooner in our current generations or in future generations yet to come.

When it goes, I'm not sure an 'bit money's will replace it, though. Why? Because there are already how many? And none are backed by anything tangible, and they are already proving to be very unstable.

What do I care though, money can't buy you everything.

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Old 12-01-2019, 09:21 PM
 
5,956 posts, read 3,829,612 times
Reputation: 5860
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
We all know that the paper dollar is constantly losing purchasing power, and that all fiat currencies eventually fail. On a scale from 1-10, how likely is the USD to collapse in the next 3 decades? With 1 being an infintesimally small probability and 10 being an absolute certainty.

Why or why not is a dollar failure likely, how would a currency collapse happen, what effects would it have on American society and the global economy, and what should a prudent saver do to protect himself? Are precious metals, land/property, or even Bitcoin good protection measures?
0...



Quote:
Originally Posted by galaxyhi View Post
Money or no money, the "USA reign" will come to an end sooner or later.

We've had a, what, 300-350 years reign of "the world" with the dollar.
Even the Holy Roman Empire lasted just 1000 years, we've enjoyed a third of that time as the "big brother to the world'.

The dollar will eventually collapse, be devalued, be devastated, whether sooner in our current generations or in future generations yet to come.

When it goes, I'm not sure an 'bit money's will replace it, though. Why? Because there are already how many? And none are backed by anything tangible, and they are already proving to be very unstable.

What do I care though, money can't buy you everything.

Is that so? Who's going to replace the US dollar? China? Russia?

ROFL!

The euro failed and that was the only competition.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shanv3 View Post
I recently happened to transit through China recently . Outside looked like a industrial wasteland but the airport interiors are way better than the US airports with so many brands I havent even seen in teh US airports. And the fleet - Air China, Eva, South China, China air with their numerous 777s lined up. Call them commies, dictatorship or third world or whatever you want, but the progress they have made is scary and to be seen with our own eyes.

And if the "International businessmen" think they are going to be better off in China than in US, they wouldnt bat an eyelid before doing so.
China isn't a free market. The world won't pick them as reserve currency. They're an autocracy that spends a lot of money to just keep their population pacified so they can stay in power.

They're a fake economy compared to the US.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
No modern and successful nation wants to lose its monetary sovereignty.
Maybe with some event causing massive world wide destruction the remaining elite might be able to pursue such a course.
I mean multiple gave it up for the Euro... Since they've learned what that means but still...

Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
I'd still echo MJ's setiment that a crypto currency actually backed by something (gold being a logical choice) could quickly be adapted as a reserve currency of choice.

That WAS the original architecture of the US dollar. It was supposed to be the gold backed reserve currency for all other nations.
That wasn't the original architecture of the US dollar. The US dollar was meant to be the US currency, like other nations had theirs. We became the world reserve currency as we took over.

Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
China may try for one. It would make sense if they start selling Treasuries.
China already sells bonds. Derka derr.

Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
Whether Americans or Europe liked it wouldn't matter...30 years from now the epicenter of the economic world will be firmly in Asia. The "West" has will start punching at weight again from its oversized stature of the past 200 years.
They said that about Japan... Look how that turned out... and Japan wasn't an autocratic dictatorship...

Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
What seems more likely is the IMF type organization will arise to do the same. It would have to not be US backed as the US will never endanger the USD reserve status. However a new international organization could easily arise to support the founding.
Yeah... See the European Union... it's been so successful...

Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
For all of her faults, Russia, by virtue of being locked out of so many markets for so long, actually has very little debt and tons of natural resources, clout and a military none would want to face in conflict.
Russia is garbage. It's currency is battered. It's population is declining with shortening lifespans and serious issues. It's military outside of nukes is nothing compared to the US.

Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
India has a high amount of gold in the citizenry. The Saudis have everything gold. Germany has the wherewithal to do it.
Indian people use gold jewelry still, what does that matter? Saudis will return to camel farmers as their oil runs out, too bad they don't have more sense to invest more in their own country for a post oil world for them. Germany is tied to the EU...

Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
None would be probable, but America appears to have lost even the pretense of practicing good habits with its currency. 10 years into a bull market and we're running massive deficits and paying nothing to be serviced. We're failing as the prudent leader of the free and industrial world that understands the importance of a bedrock currency for the world.

I'd put the US dollar fall at 2 of 10 in the next 30. I think it's worthwhile to accumulate a bit of physical gold each year.
You think the US is bad? Go look up how much EU debt is already zero to negative interest rates.

Last edited by LordSquidworth; 12-01-2019 at 09:35 PM..
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Old 12-01-2019, 09:47 PM
 
Location: Western Washington
9,719 posts, read 8,888,194 times
Reputation: 16845
Quote:
Originally Posted by galaxyhi View Post
Money or no money, the "USA reign" will come to an end sooner or later.

We've had a, what, 300-350 years reign of "the world" with the dollar.
Even the Holy Roman Empire lasted just 1000 years, we've enjoyed a third of that time as the "big brother to the world'.

The dollar will eventually collapse, be devalued, be devastated, whether sooner in our current generations or in future generations yet to come.

When it goes, I'm not sure an 'bit money's will replace it, though. Why? Because there are already how many? And none are backed by anything tangible, and they are already proving to be very unstable.

What do I care though, money can't buy you everything.

300-350 years ago the US dollar did not exist. The dominance of the US dollar goes back only 80-100 years.

The Holy Roman Empire was merely one power among others, it certainly was not an imperial power as claimed by the name. Looked at very generously it existed for 1000 years, if you include the Carolingian kingdoms as being synonymous with the HRE, rather than being a precursor state.

This common thought that empires last some sort of predetermined time is nonsense. Some last much longer, such as the Roman Republic, the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire, various permutations of Chinese dynasties, the Egyptian kingdoms, England/United Kingdom, etc. Others done last nearly so long, such as the USSR or Nazi Germany. Most long lived nations go through a variety of stages and periodically reinvent themselves.

Eventually the US will fail as a nation, and eventually its currency will pass as well. That is inevitable in the course of history. There is no reason to think that this will happen in a mere 30 years though.
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Old 12-01-2019, 09:53 PM
 
5,956 posts, read 3,829,612 times
Reputation: 5860
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishbrains View Post
300-350 years ago the US dollar did not exist. The dominance of the US dollar goes back only 80-100 years.

The Holy Roman Empire was merely one power among others, it certainly was not an imperial power as claimed by the name. Looked at very generously it existed for 1000 years, if you include the Carolingian kingdoms as being synonymous with the HRE, rather than being a precursor state.

This common thought that empires last some sort of predetermined time is nonsense. Some last much longer, such as the Roman Republic, the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire, various permutations of Chinese dynasties, the Egyptian kingdoms, England/United Kingdom, etc. Others done last nearly so long, such as the USSR or Nazi Germany. Most long lived nations go through a variety of stages and periodically reinvent themselves.

Eventually the US will fail as a nation, and eventually its currency will pass as well. That is inevitable in the course of history. There is no reason to think that this will happen in a mere 30 years though.
HRE died as a result of a treaty signed after being defeated militarily.

Had nothing to do with currency or spending.


The US can maintain dominance for centuries to come if it plays it's cards right. Short of China all of a sudden embracing democracy which I doubt there isn't any competition.
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Old 12-01-2019, 10:00 PM
 
265 posts, read 23,009 times
Reputation: 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordSquidworth View Post

The US can maintain dominance for centuries to come if it plays it's cards right. Short of China all of a sudden embracing democracy which I doubt there isn't any competition.
Or something. I thought the dollar was going to collapse before 2008. Waited for the other shoe to drop for years. Silly me!
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Old 12-01-2019, 11:32 PM
 
10,767 posts, read 4,985,203 times
Reputation: 14226
Quote:
Originally Posted by galaxyhi View Post
Money or no money, the "USA reign" will come to an end sooner or later.

We've had a, what, 300-350 years reign of "the world" with the dollar.
Even the Holy Roman Empire lasted just 1000 years, we've enjoyed a third of that time as the "big brother to the world'.

The dollar will eventually collapse, be devalued, be devastated, whether sooner in our current generations or in future generations yet to come.

Check your math.


Pointless "safe" prediction that no one living will ever know turns out or not. "Sooner or later". What exactly does that mean? Sooner or later life on this earth will end.
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