Are Red State Governors who resisted lock downs vindicated with the lower than predicted death totals? (stores, work)

[Oklazona Bound]

Originally Posted by Ambitious994

YES, they were right. The entire thing was overblown and the messaging behind it gets spun to fit whatever narrative on the death count.

This was the biggest blunder and scam in American history.

I agree. Its obvious doing common sense things to avoid spreading the virus is wise. The 6 foot rule, not coughing or sneezing on other people and staying home if you feel sick. Also banning large groups of people. But shutting down so called non essential businesses. I would guess if you own the business or work their you would consider it essential. Well doing that unless in a hot spot was overkill. We could have probably kept the infection numbers near where they are and kept the economy humming along.

Near where I live there is a canyon with campgrounds. They canyon is open along with the picnic tables, hiking is fine but overnight camping is banned. People camp in their own motorhomes and 5th wheels and have little contact with others as the campsites are spaced out. No reason to single them out.

There were so many errors in our response to this, from the White House down to the county and city level.

[beachmouse]

Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound

They have fared well. Most if not all of them have declining case numbers now. You look at those states and Sweden and you see that social distancing helps but a lock down may not make much difference.

Except the post just above you notes that a good number the red states are indeed seeing big jumps in cases rather than the declining numbers you assert.

[MinivanDriver]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

Except the post just above you notes that a good number the red states are indeed seeing big jumps in cases rather than the declining numbers you assert.

In truth, projections in Southern states are showing that peak infection rates have slowed dramatically and COVID-19 incidents are well below the capacity of existing ICUs and hospital beds. This website lets you review the data. Scroll among all the states and you'll see this holds true throughout the region.



https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...rica/tennessee


None of this, by the way, is an invitation to complacency. But I doubt anyone can dispute that emerging data shows that some regions of the country have been afflicted at far lower levels than others, and the reason for that stems from a variety of reasons. Population density is one of those.



For example, the NYT published an article that compared various states in how well they were achieving social distancing based on how far individuals in each state travel on average per day.



Predictably, the article took Southern states to task for not practicing social distancing nearly as well as their counterparts in the Northeast and West Coast. Yet there was a flaw in the model, namely that it really didn't take into account population density and its subsequent effect on how many people with whom one might have contact in a day.



For example, if I make a foray to the grocery store, it's an eight-mile round trip drive to the grocery store. Yet I'll encounter far fewer people than I would in a two block walk on Manhattan.


The point of all this is that it is not a good idea to lock down the economy of one state based on the conditions in another state, for the data is showing that COVID-19 is spreading at a far slower and far more manageable way in some states versus others.



As long as reasonable care is undertaken, then, it becomes possible to restart the economy without having another massive outbreak.

[Oklazona Bound]

Originally Posted by Lowexpectations

Well looks like a couple of states are just starting to see jumps in their numbers

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/polit...rus/index.html

Only problem with the CNN story is that the numbers are jumping up. They claim large week to week increases:

Oklahoma:

Week ending 4/16 total: 766
Week ending 4/09 total: 826

8% decrease. CNN says 53% increase

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/

Arkansas:
Week ending 4/16 total: 476
Week ending 4/09 total: 457

4% increase. CNN says 60% increase

What is the difference? CNN must be using numbers from the previous two weeks when cases around the US were rising almost everywhere. Very misleading. The state with the big increase is South Dakota because of the meat plant. No mystery there.

[Oklazona Bound]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

Except the post just above you notes that a good number the red states are indeed seeing big jumps in cases rather than the declining numbers you assert.

Actually they are not. See my comments above. The CNN link is misleading and not accurate. Yes the meat plant spikes SD's numbers. But states like Oklahoma and Arkansas do not have big jumps. Arkansas is interesting because they neighbor a hot spot state and have done social distancing but kept most businesses open and they are doing really well with the virus.


https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/


But do not believe me, pull up the chart from above. Look at the Arkansas chart and its obvious there is no big jump.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound

So we have about 28,000 deaths as of 4/16. About half being in NY and NJ. Predictions just a few weeks ago warned of up to 200,000 deaths with a lock down and millions without. Many red state governors resisted doing a lock down including the states I spend most of my time in AZ and OK. In fact there are still more than half a dozen red states who have either a partial or no lock down. And these states have fared well compared other states took much more draconian measures.

In fact if you look at job losses per 1,000 people these red states overall have suffered fewer job losses than states with the harsh lock downs:

So were these states right to resist locking down?

What you have done is engaged in a Logical Fallacy called Denying the Antecedent.

The Laws of Economics apply to healthcare whether people like it or not.

When Demand for housing exceeds the available Supply of housing, rents and housing prices sky-rocket.

When Demand for medical care exceeds the available Supply, the death toll sky-rockets.

If you want proof, you need only look at Italy, France, Spain and places in the US, like NYC.

The lock-down did what it was supposed to do, which is keep hospitals from becoming so overwhelmed medical staff has to triage patients resulting in high death rates.

The lock-down also kept the disease from spreading to the so-called Red States.

South Dakota resisted a lock-down, and because it did, it now leads its region in cases per capita, with the number of cases and deaths rising.

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — South Dakota is leading the upper Midwest region in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases per capita, as cases have dramatically risen in the last few days. In Minnehaha County alone, where a large outbreak has been discovered at a Smithfield Foods plant, cases are doubling every three days. This prompted South Dakota Secretary of Health Kim Kim Malsam-Rysdon to declare a public health emergency in the county.

So....how smart was it to resist the lock-down?

Every road you take leads to the same dead end.

Do nothing and within 6-8 weeks 262 Million people are exposed to the virus with 5.7 Million in hospital.

The hospitals would be triaging. Yeah, you 3 go over there and die quietly while we try to save this one's life.

And the cost?

It still costs you $2 TRILLION.

That's $2 TRILLION in lost productivity due to workers being sick, in hospital, dead, calling off because they don't want to get infected and infect their families, life insurance payouts, the payouts on auto loans for those who have the death benefit, health insurance payouts, businesses shut down because there are no employees and for retail and restaurants, no one wants a COVID-19-Burger, and all costs of other hidden and internal and external costs that are beyond your capability to imagine.

You'd be in a big economic mess no matter what.

By the way....how long does immunity to COVID-19 last?

So, you're going to let it spread through the population and then keep spreading because you have no freaking idea how long immunity lasts.

Corona virus, like all virus that cause ILIs and corona virus is an ILI, has no life-time immunity.

You don't even get long-term immunity.

Have you never heard of a flu-shot?

Why do you think you're supposed to get a flu-shot every year, instead of once in your life?

Um, it's because your immunity to influenza and other ILIs only lasts a few weeks to a few months.

Ask around. You'll find people who get the flu 2-3 times a year. Imagine getting COVID-19 2 or 3 times a year.

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound

Only problem with the CNN story is that the numbers are jumping up. They claim large week to week increases:

Oklahoma:

Week ending 4/16 total: 766
Week ending 4/09 total: 826

8% decrease. CNN says 53% increase

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/

Arkansas:
Week ending 4/16 total: 476
Week ending 4/09 total: 457

4% increase. CNN says 60% increase

What is the difference? CNN must be using numbers from the previous two weeks when cases around the US were rising almost everywhere. Very misleading. The state with the big increase is South Dakota because of the meat plant. No mystery there.

Johns Hopkins shows Oklahoma from 1700 cases to 2400 in the 7 days from 4/9-4/16 and Arkansas going from 1100 to 1600. Jumps of more than 40% in both states. I can tell you in Arkansas the testing is dismal so it’s hard to get confirmed cases without it

[mcsangel2]

Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound

Only problem with the CNN story is that the numbers are jumping up. They claim large week to week increases:

Oklahoma:

Week ending 4/16 total: 766
Week ending 4/09 total: 826

8% decrease. CNN says 53% increase

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/

Arkansas:
Week ending 4/16 total: 476
Week ending 4/09 total: 457

4% increase. CNN says 60% increase

What is the difference? CNN must be using numbers from the previous two weeks when cases around the US were rising almost everywhere. Very misleading. The state with the big increase is South Dakota because of the meat plant. No mystery there.

You're reading the numbers wrong. The 4/16 numbers are not the total cases, it's the number of NEW cases. Oklahoma last week had 826 new cases, this week had 766 new cases, for a total of 1592 new cases in the last two weeks. These are big spikes.

[Hopeful for Life]

Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound

So we have about 28,000 deaths as of 4/16. About half being in NY and NJ. Predictions just a few weeks ago warned of up to 200,000 deaths with a lock down and millions without. Many red state governors resisted doing a lock down including the states I spend most of my time in AZ and OK. In fact there are still more than half a dozen red states who have either a partial or no lock down. And these states have fared well compared other states took much more draconian measures.

In fact if you look at job losses per 1,000 people these red states overall have suffered fewer job losses than states with the harsh lock downs:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/this...ronavirus.html


So were these states right to resist locking down?

I think that it's because nobody wants to visit those places.

[leastprime]

@Micea, P#56
"Every road you take leads to the same dead end."
I like your phrase.

Every Governor and Absolute Power DJT, gambled on the path to take. And "Every road you take leads to the same dead end." What is unknown is the journey in that path-unknown consequences even though the we know the road taken is a dead end.