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I am not the most optimistic person in the world but I don't think it will take all that long before things get back to something like normal. By next Summer we should be in good shape. Until then I think we''ll manage to limp along at a slow pace.
This is likely the most valid assessment. The job market/economy was mostly sound before this happened, so this is a temporary yet major roadblock caused by the virus and the way we needed to respond to it.
There are a LOT of businesses that will be able to reopen and roll along here in the coming weeks as things reopen. There are others that will reopen and limp along for a while until picking up steam again, and sadly some (mostly some small retail/restaurants/bars) that will struggle and go out of business, to be eventually replaced by new ones.
There are economists far outside of Trump's camp (such as an Oxford economist I listened to recently) who think we will see a strong rebound in the 3rd quarter with things continuing to get stronger from there. Once things reopen we will see a bit of a hesitation as we try to figure out what is normal and what can be done in this period between now and a vaccine, but that will get sorted out.
And people need to remember, many companies are working on vaccines, planning to have millions of doses produced by late this Fall as they expect fast track approval. Pfizer says in a rush they could have theirs available in September, and some company in the UK is targeting November.
Once that gets out to the population in large numbers we should truly see a full return to normal.
There is a HUGE difference between this and the Great Depression. The Great Depression (and all lesser downturns after that including the Great Recession) were caused by growing dysfunctions in the economy (such as excess growing debt) that could only be worked out in damaging ways that could not be instantly reversed.
This was a "planned collapse" in a way, a better analogy is it was a "turning off of the light switch" or an "economic blackout". The big change from February to April did not happen in just two months in 1929 or 2008, it was spread and grew over months and years and took the same to reverse.
The minute this is over (which could be late this year and won't be later that late next year even without a vaccine, even the 1918 flu pandemic was mostly gone after a year and a half with no vaccine and far less medical technology and science than today) and the "light switch" is truly turned back on, and "the blackout" has ended the numbers go down almost as much and as quickly as they went up. Unforunately, they don't completely and we might have "light recession" conditions for awhile (maybe a year) to completely undo everything because:
- Some businesses won't be able to just "reopen" and may be out of business. Eventually as demand bounces back others will take their place.
- People will be very nervous about going to mass events and possibly even to movie theatres and restaurants. In fact one larger fear I have is after all the herculean efforts a vaccine will amazingly come out this year or early next year but the anti-vaxx conspirators will scare so many people from taking it that it will be worthless and a wasted effort and we'll be set back years with this. I am so glad my forefathers didn't think this about the polio or measles vaccines.
10 to 15 years? Really? That would be like the Great Recession just ending now.....it's a VERY long time no one can tell and I really really doubt it.
A lot of people think this is going to be at least a 10-15 year ordeal much like the 1930s depression was.
Those people are largely ignorant and uneducated.
Which jobs has COVID-19 caused to disappear permanently?
We'll wait while you list all none of them.
Here's a new phrase for your sparse vocabulary: Structural Unemployment.
Structural unemployment occurs when jobs disappear permanently or are significantly reduced.
Structural unemployment is what caused the 1925 Recession and the 1928 Recession and the 1930 Recession (the latter in combination with a liquidity crisis).
So, there you are, in the wood-shop, pumping the foot-treadle on your manual lathe as fast as your furry little legs will go, and here comes this big electric lathe.
One electric lathe can do the work of 6 men, so you and 9 other men get pink slips, because they only 2 guys in the shop instead of 12.
Everywhere you look for a job, it's the same. Electric lathes are replacing manual lathes. You used to be a drill press operator, but you can't get work there, either, because everyone is switching over to electric drill presses that go faster and produce more than manual ones.
Is that what you're seeing now?
Really?
COVID-19 Virus is replacing workers?
You go into a restaurant and a COVID-19 Virus is handing you a menu: "Today's special is bacteriophage soup."
There are plenty of jobs and plenty of workers to fill those jobs, or I suppose re-fill those jobs.
There might be a brief liquidity issue, but government has been addressing that, so it's likely to be very short-lived.
Barring a resurgence of the virus, you'll be at full-steam by July.
We were running a high deficit with rock bottom interests to get the economy where it was pre-Covid. We have a large demographic cashing in entitlements and the tax cuts didn't pay for themselves. Hard to tell what things will look like but there's certainly more than hope we can recover in 5 years.
Barring a resurgence of the virus, you'll be at full-steam by July.
I think by July is pushing it, but it's true there's plenty of pent-up demand. Plenty of people are eager to resume eating out, traveling, attending big events, etc. as soon as it's reasonably safe to do so. And that bodes well in the long run.
People just pull predictions out of their butt ......then they argue it can’t play out any other way ....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea
Those people are largely ignorant and uneducated.
Which jobs has COVID-19 caused to disappear permanently?
We'll wait while you list all none of them.
Here's a new phrase for your sparse vocabulary: Structural Unemployment.
Structural unemployment occurs when jobs disappear permanently or are significantly reduced.
Structural unemployment is what caused the 1925 Recession and the 1928 Recession and the 1930 Recession (the latter in combination with a liquidity crisis).
So, there you are, in the wood-shop, pumping the foot-treadle on your manual lathe as fast as your furry little legs will go, and here comes this big electric lathe.
One electric lathe can do the work of 6 men, so you and 9 other men get pink slips, because they only 2 guys in the shop instead of 12.
Everywhere you look for a job, it's the same. Electric lathes are replacing manual lathes. You used to be a drill press operator, but you can't get work there, either, because everyone is switching over to electric drill presses that go faster and produce more than manual ones.
Is that what you're seeing now?
Really?
COVID-19 Virus is replacing workers?
You go into a restaurant and a COVID-19 Virus is handing you a menu: "Today's special is bacteriophage soup."
There are plenty of jobs and plenty of workers to fill those jobs, or I suppose re-fill those jobs.
There might be a brief liquidity issue, but government has been addressing that, so it's likely to be very short-lived.
Barring a resurgence of the virus, you'll be at full-steam by July.
You're both wasting your time, and bandwidth, with him. He's started at least one other thread with more or less the same premise.
He'll no doubt start another one soon blaming the whole crisis on Evangelicals.
I tend to agree with Zandi - it will recover rather quickly once we have a vaccine (or even a medical treatment/drug which lessens the severity of symptoms).
I'm going to split the middle here and say that the markets and certain parts of the tech sector especially will recover quickly. The possibly already are. That covers maybe 25% of the population.
Then, most, but not all, of the white collar econonmy will muddle along about like they were before, some a little worse off, some a little better. This is another 25-35%
The other half is pretty well screwed.
The recovery will be VERY unequal. Many, many service and lower middle income jobs are not coming back for the foreseeable future. I expect to see something like the occupy wall street movement again but much bigger.
This.
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