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While the Austrians have an infinitely better understanding of our economic predicament than the Keynesians, they're both wrong at the end of the day.
I like listening to Peter Schiff on our current economic predicament. He's extremely knowledgeable about the subject, but he doesn't seem to understand that an infinite growth paradigm is not sustainable period, and guaranteed to fail. He seems to think that'd we'd all be OK if we stopped the bailouts and QE, shrank government, and backed the currency with gold.
Peter schiff? Couldn’t predict yesterday’s weather Peter schiff ? I hope he didn’t take his own advice the last decade ....
I like listening to Peter Schiff on our current economic predicament.
Because he makes money saying what you want to hear.
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Originally Posted by Taggerung
He's extremely knowledgeable about the subject
Why do you say this? Have you actually looked at his long, well documented history of economic prognostication? I've seen enough of the links you provide to know you generally bounce around in the echo-chamber of doom-and-gloom clickbait websites so I assume your attention was drawn to him as part of that, but I'm genuinely curious if you did anything to vet the "experts" you are calling extremely knowledgeable on anything more than saying things you thought you already knew.
The old joke fits a number of goldbug, perma-bears but it nails Schiff really well, "he's predicted 11 of the last 2 recessions."
My favorite catastrophic call by Schiff........in 2013, might have been '14, he called gold at $5,000 oz.
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Schiff is living proof that:
Austrian school economics was more or less dead 50 years ago and stinking more and more eveyday. No first world economy practices any amount of AS philosophy.
People who are not economists shouldn't pretend to be so.
My favorite catastrophic call by Schiff........in 2013, might have been '14, he called gold at $5,000 oz.
Mine would be just generally 2009-2020.
Dude spent the strongest bull market of many a generation constantly advising people should ditch stocks and plow into gold. Every year he was wrong he'd just keep repeating the same thing. DJIA went from 7k to 28k and he never blinked, just kept blathering on about the overinflated stock market.
Yet here we are today with Taggerung singing his praises, it boggles the mind.
for sure ... peter schiff has had his one correct call and all the others have been so bad ... i don't know why he even still bothers . his credibility sucks .
i don't care who they are , they are all likely wrong more than right . look at all the bad calls by bill gross , gundlach , etc .
the only one i like is ed hyman and he admits he doesn't know but he just presents current facts as he sees it.
. He heads Evercore ISI’s Economic Research Team. For the past 44 years Ed has been ranked by the Institutional Investor poll of investors for Economics, and ranked # 1 for 39 years.
not that means much but i find what he says does make sense and he admits he can't predict .
I like Ed Hyman, too.
But ultimately, I don't see how all this money printing by the U.S., Europe, & Japan doesn't lead to some kind of collapse at some point. It's kind of like the tech boom of the late 1990s. It went on for another 3+ years after Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comment.
Dude spent the strongest bull market of many a generation constantly advising people should ditch stocks and plow into gold. Every year he was wrong he'd just keep repeating the same thing. DJIA went from 7k to 28k and he never blinked, just kept blathering on about the overinflated stock market.
Yet here we are today with Taggerung singing his praises, it boggles the mind.
the funny thing is the last two decades gold actually did beat equities with dividends reinvested .
gold beat stocks ytd , the 1 yr , 3 yr , came close to tying equities on the 5 year and beat equities again for the last 15 and 20 year periods ...stocks took the 10 year period .
not many realize it was actually gold that was the more frequent winner the last 2 decades .
prior to that gold was a different animal and not a main stream investment ... the early 2000's saw gold become mainstream , as etf's made it easily accessible by the masses and it become part of more and more portfolio strategies . there was only one portfolio around going back 25-30 years that used physical gold . gold was the asset of choice of the gloomers and gold bugs , not most investors used it . it was hard to deal with , store and sell and had costly fees ... with gold etf's it was as simple as buying stocks .
so it has certainly become a different animal the last two decades as well as we went back to national down turns .
for years we got regional recessions which rolled through different parts of the country and industries and markets seemed to be less effected overall while sectors got hit and not the whole market .now we are back to national downturns and back to back downturns have been the new normal the last 20 years ... so times and investing certainly is different the last 2 decades.
but peter has been just as wrong .
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-18-2020 at 02:42 AM..
the funny thing is the last two decades gold actually did beat equities with dividends reinvested .
gold beat stocks ytd , the 1 yr , 3 yr , came close to tying equities on the 5 year and beat equities again for the last 15 and 20 year periods ...stocks took the 10 year period .
not many realize it was actually gold that was the more frequent winner the last 2 decades .
prior to that gold was a different animal and not a main stream investment ... the early 2000's saw gold become mainstream , as etf's made it easily accessible by the masses and it become part of more and more portfolio strategies . there was only one portfolio around going back 25-30 years that used physical gold . gold was the asset of choice of the gloomers and gold bugs , not most investors used it . it was hard to deal with , store and sell and had costly fees ... with gold etf's it was as simple as buying stocks .
so it has certainly become a different animal the last two decades as well as we went back to national down turns .
for years we got regional recessions which rolled through different parts of the country and industries and markets seemed to be less effected overall while sectors got hit and not the whole market .now we are back to national downturns and back to back downturns have been the new normal the last 20 years ... so times and investing certainly is different the last 2 decades.
but peter has been just as wrong .
Gold and silver are interesting. As with other classes it all boils down to time horizons. Over the very long haul silver would have been on of the worst investments possible as the all time inflation and currency adjusted value for silver was in early 1100s AD England, as best anyone can tell. The same for gold was probably in Asia much earlier.
Another issue is G&S bear markets tend to last decades.
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Your point about rolling/regional recessions is a good one.
Gold and silver are interesting. As with other classes it all boils down to time horizons. Over the very long haul silver would have been on of the worst investments possible as the all time inflation and currency adjusted value for silver was in early 1100s AD England, as best anyone can tell. The same for gold was probably in Asia much earlier.
Another issue is G&S bear markets tend to last decades.
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Your point about rolling/regional recessions is a good one.
thanks .
yeah , if you remember the oil patch got hit , then detroit , then new england got hammered ... we had more regional recessions for many years than the whole country at once .
but now we are back to more normal cycles .
so the point is a lot has changed today , including 90% of the days volume is just high frequency trading and little based on whether a company is a good company or not ... all it needs is institutional coverage and a good stock does not have to be a good company ... they are traded and gone in a blink .
The precious metals are not a short-term, get-rich scheme. They are a long-term, stay-rich plan.
So are a lot of things. Real estate is the same way. I remember back in the 80s gold pushers were screaming gold is gonna go up buy now. Ok eventually it goes up....40 years later ...it went up. Kind of inevitable that things cost more. I mean hell back in 1957 I could buy a new Chevy for 3,000 bucks.
Sorry but this bull the world is ending financially we’re all doomed just flat out doesn’t work. First of all even if it happened it won’t stay that way long. People still need food, shelter, basics. There are still people who understand that people are gonna need supplies and services. Even in a full out war there is still a economy. Some people thrived in WWII. Some people and companies thrived in GWOT.
Some people will absolutely thrive in a depression situation.
So are a lot of things. Real estate is the same way. I remember back in the 80s gold pushers were screaming gold is gonna go up buy now. Ok eventually it goes up....40 years later ...it went up. Kind of inevitable that things cost more. I mean hell back in 1957 I could buy a new Chevy for 3,000 bucks.
Sorry but this bull the world is ending financially we’re all doomed just flat out doesn’t work. First of all even if it happened it won’t stay that way long. People still need food, shelter, basics. There are still people who understand that people are gonna need supplies and services. Even in a full out war there is still a economy. Some people thrived in WWII. Some people and companies thrived in GWOT.
Some people will absolutely thrive in a depression situation.
The problem with real estate is; what is your house worth in an economic collapse? Soon, suburban tract houses won't be worth the particle board, drywall, and plastic cladding their made of. Gold and silver are a store of wealth, real estate is more of a 'paper' asset than a 'real' asset.
I'm not saying the world, or even civilization, is going to end any time soon. But our current way living will.
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