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McConnell admits there will likely be some more federal help coming to the unemployed this summer. Just wait until October. That's when the second wave of CV-19 returns along side the seasonal flu. Without a federal program of contact tracing, testing, and social restrictions, there's no way to avoid a second wave that will originate and silently spread from states with lax oversight. Trump has put all his markers on one number hoping for a vaccine that can be rolled out before the election. It's the ultimate Hail Mary.
Not taking it seriously?! Taking what seriously??? The only thing to be taken seriously is the economic damage caused, the virus itself proved to be an absolute joke. A 0.1% mortality rate - if even that - confirmed by many studies and beyond that, turns out you don’t even need a study, it’s right there and obvious - Singapore 33,000 cases, 23 deaths. That’s not even 1 in 1,000. The use of the term “deadly virus” makes me chuckle, I guess we should call aging a deadly disease because it kills everyone. The virus gave a nudge to people already on the edge and pushed them over faster, it didn’t come through and kill a bunch of healthy people. In fact in NYC the death rate for those 18-45 was just 0.01%. So what do you mean he didn’t take it seriously?! He took it TOO seriously! I think more people will end up dying and having their lives ruined because of the idiocy of responding to the virus at all. The best response was Sweden, and the absolute best response would have been to pretend it doesn’t even exist and just go on with our lives. The number of people not getting critical medical care because of these stupid lockdowns is way more concerning than some old and weak people dying of a strong flu.
Hahaha Sweden is seeing issues too. Sure the following is from the begining of the month but I would pay attention because it is from The Wall Street Journal.any people are still following social distancing but they still have a high per capita death rate than most of Europe. We are even worse than the countries worse than Sweden. Do the math and don't believe the red pill logic. https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweden-...ay-11588870062
Here is the problem that one time check once it's spent on rent or utilities is gone, it's gone. The $600 is more likely to be reinvested into the economy in a meaningful way.
Absolutely. Not to mention that $ 1200.00 does not even equate to one month's rent in most metro areas.
If it covers one month of rent, that's for a single person in a one bedroom apartment, and it does not leave much for food and other expense items.
That is correct. I think we will see a lot of struggling people come the end of July, and another rash of unemployment come October once the PP loan requirement of not laying off employees until October expires. Many businesses are waiting until October (if they took the loan) because they can't have it forgiven if they lay off employees before October.
July is also the start of the new fiscal year for most municipalities, states and school systems. Most states' sales tax collections are off 15% - 30% with no full recovery in site. Payroll tax withholdings are probably off 10% - 20% based on the number of jobs lost to date. Unless a federal bailout comes very soon, municipal budget cuts are going to be deep. I would expect another jump in unemployment claims during the first week in July.
If the Republicans do not extend the $600/week, they will suffer big losses in November. The Republicans will get the blame for it in the eyes of the voter since they are the incumbent party. Perception is reality. Unemployed conservative voters will stay home, changing the composition of the electorate.
Unemployment is at ~20% right now. Both people with McJobs and people with white collar, decent paying jobs are getting laid off. In fact, the white collar workers have it worse than the people who had McJobs. The people with McJobs will get hired sooner before the white collar workers, because interviewing for a McJob is so much easier. There is no demand. Unemployed people do not have cash to make extravagant purchases. Consumer sentiment is weak. Jobs are the answer. Until jobs are available, there needs to be artificial, Keynesian like stimulus. Consumer spending props up an economy.
This is so hideously uninformed and ignorant. Sure, the low wage service sector employees are better off. However, the white collar layoffs need the $600 just to replenish their salaries. Also, the white collar workers need to absorb their own ACA healthcare costs. The white collar workers need the $600/week through at least the end of 2020, because white collar job interview processes take far longer. The average bartender, server, and line cook will have a job before the average laid off marketing professional. The layoffs in white collar were permanent layoffs, whereas the service sector was more furloughed.
As things stand on ground atm federal PUA is *NOT* going to be extended. So let's just get that over with right now, it just isn't going to happen on Mitch McConnell's watch.
That he let it slip through first time is a wonder to us all, but having seen what amounts to UBI does he and large part of GOP won't go down that rabbit hole again.
Depending upon whom you believe GOP (along with DT) is already doomed in November, so cannot see how extending PUA is going to move that needle much if at all. People who don't like GOP and or their policies aren't going to change their minds and vote for them regardless. Meanwhile republicans need to listen to and respond to their base; that is their only hope for upcoming elections.
Depending upon whom you believe GOP (along with DT) is already doomed in November, so cannot see how extending PUA is going to move that needle much if at all. People who don't like GOP and or their policies aren't going to change their minds and vote for them regardless. Meanwhile republicans need to listen to and respond to their base; that is their only hope for upcoming elections.
I agree with that analysis.
$1200 is good money anywhere in New Mexico. Only in High cost states is it not so good. But those states have better unemployment benefits in general. [CA, NY, MA. Not so sure about OR and WA]
The economy can't survive long-term in purgatory. Economy can't sustain repeated economic slowdowns and start ups. Companies are just too leveraged. However, what we can survive is more national debt if repeated economic slowdowns are required.
With an election year in the background, you can't afford for the US to be sitting idle. You're already starting to see that in the last couple of weeks (civil unrest). My travel and hobbies have diminished considerably. I'm just working and going home most of the time. Picking up to go from restaurants is my social outing, outside of work.
I think you'll just see the Fed's balance sheet continue to expand until we get to some form of normalcy (somewhat diminished normalcy). There's a lot of moving pieces, so no one can stake conclusions, just ideas.
My personal thought is that if the curve doesn't appear to be flattened enough, we'll have to reconsider current phases in areas most impacted. At this moment, a second round of stimulus money is unlikely. However, things could change depending on how new infections and death tolls have changed.
However, if they want to continue with a staggered economy, the fed will have to step in and intervene. As mentioned above, there's too many companies highly leveraged, because funds remained cheap for too long. Interest rates have a history of dictating who can and who cannot bare the market. When rates are low long-term, many more projects can be supported, as the debt coverage ratio is better supported. 100-200 bps can be the difference maker in a deal cash flowing or being more asset/guarantor dependent.
This is a thoughtful post and one I'd like to elaborate on further.
I think the idleness from the lockdowns and the unemployment is a HUGE and overlooked contributor to all this.
In my area, the arrestees are almost all under 25. Many were college students who either got stuck here due to COVID and the relative lack of layoffs, or they never went to college and are unemployed and idle.
I worked from 8-8 yesterday. I did a mile and a half walk afterwards. I was too tired to protest, even if I wanted to. Oh, and I had to be back in at 8 this morning.
It is not healthy for young, able people, especially young men, to sit idle. Combine that with the frustrations from lockdown and the outrage of Floyd's murder, and you had a tinderbox.
This is a thoughtful post and one I'd like to elaborate on further.
I think the idleness from the lockdowns and the unemployment is a HUGE and overlooked contributor to all this.
In my area, the arrestees are almost all under 25. Many were college students who either got stuck here due to COVID and the relative lack of layoffs, or they never went to college and are unemployed and idle.
I worked from 8-8 yesterday. I did a mile and a half walk afterwards. I was too tired to protest, even if I wanted to. Oh, and I had to be back in at 8 this morning.
It is not healthy for young, able people, especially young men, to sit idle. Combine that with the frustrations from lockdown and the outrage of Floyd's murder, and you had a tinderbox.
Very true. I'm have been working long hours through this. Right after work, I ride my rollers on rainy days and hit the road on sunny days (I'm a recreational cyclist). As much as I would LOVE to peaceful protest, I am just too tired to after work.
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