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I keep hearing this over and over, but I assure you, several generations will filter through most of these jobs and retire while waiting on that to come true. We as individuals stand to lose more making knee-jerk decisions and giving up our seats prematurely because we're just "delaying the inevitable" than actually calling the bluff of naysayers and staying put.
Google, Facebook (and any social media company) were founded recently enough that their entire operations could have been outsourced from Day 1. Didn't happen. They could technically still do it right now. Not happening. And they can do it at any time they wish - I wouldn't bank on that happening.
The countries who were popular outsource destinations now have their own strong local economies with jobs that serve companies actually based there. Labor rates are rising and they are no longer as competitive in terms of labor cost as they once were. The financial projections on what was thought to continuously provide this cost savings to companies is drying up.
If anything, companies are reversing offshore migrations to appear both more socially responsible and appeal to more patriotic types. What we are seeing though is an imposed "sink or swim" test on mom & pop businesses that already were operating on thin margins. There's no more such thing as a business that has been "barely getting by" for the past 20 years. You either have a lucrative model or you'll fold or move on.
I call it the Starbucks effect. Though there are few franchises that are as large or as profitable, commercial real estate developers want to charge rents as if every tenant was a Starbucks (or a Panera, or a Chipotle). One-off businesses gather up enough money to qualify for the first year's lease, proceed to lose money month over month, and fold not long after that. Franchises with thinner margins are suffering the same fate. Look how quickly Logan's filed for bankruptcy (and announced a closure of ALL locations) after the announcement of COVID restrictions.
Nike used to be made in America.... Give it time. It can happen faster than you think. Also, Google, Facebook, etc have issues with politics and government regulations. I am talking about procurement, tech support, sales, etc.
Also, outsourcing is not only in regards to other countries. It can cross state lines in the US. Why pay someone not far from Silicon Valley $100k when someone in WV can go to school and ask for $30k less than the employee in CA.
It’s not cowering, it’s understanding that things are pretty messed up right now, but these things will pass and our scientists are learning more daily. I much rather live in an area that took the science seriously than an area that denies the effectiveness of masks.
When this is over the cities will still be great, and fly over country will still be fly over country.
Shutdown for a moment? NYC has been shut down since mid-March. It's now mid-August. That's 5 months and there is absolutely not end in sight. There is no timeline when the governor will fully reopen businesses. College campuses are closed all over the state and many don't even think they'll be open in the spring semester. NYC is in SERIOUS trouble.
Shutdown for a moment? NYC has been shut down since mid-March. It's now mid-August. That's 5 months and there is absolutely not end in sight. There is no timeline when the governor will fully reopen businesses. College campuses are closed all over the state and many don't even think they'll be open in the spring semester. NYC is in SERIOUS trouble.
I still think roughly 2 years total. Shorter in areas less affected, meaning rural and most cities.
I think a lot of these work from home move to cheaper area are gonna find the companies will eventually start a cost analysis and start restructuring payrolls. The reason a lot of people were getting $170,000 dollar salaries was because cost to live was that high In x area so your offer usually took that in consideration. They aren’t gonna pay $170,000 a year to have work from home support when you live in Small town 1200 miles away
I think a lot of these work from home move to cheaper area are gonna find the companies will eventually start a cost analysis and start restructuring payrolls. The reason a lot of people were getting $170,000 dollar salaries was because cost to live was that high In x area so your offer usually took that in consideration. They aren’t gonna pay $170,000 a year to have work from home support when you live in Small town 1200 miles away
It'll be interesting. I'm not sure the news about places like FB going remote are as true as published. I just had an interview with FB for a data science role a few weeks ago and have no plans to relocate to NYC (unless they were offering $450k +). So, I asked about remote possibility. They said it would require relo. I checked out similar offers on levels.fyi and quickly removed myself from the process.
I own in upper Manhattan and the units that are for sale in my building right now are listed at higher prices than before the pandemic. For the most part, apartments up here are larger and prices are cheaper than midtown or downtown. We're only a 20 min subway ride from midtown, so it's a good compromise location for people who don't want to move out to the 'burbs but want more space than they can get in the typically trendier areas. I would imagine there are plenty of areas in Queens and Brooklyn that are the same. We have a bunch of great parks up here, too, and that's been a draw for people who want to get outdoors. Very few of my neighbors left the city, so walking around the vibe doesn't actually feel all that different - except people are wearing masks now. The outdoor sidewalk seating that's opened at local restaurants has been very popular and tables are usually full when we walk by in the evenings. We see lots of people picking up take-out and plenty of delivery guys on their bikes delivering food. Museums will open up next week at quarter capacity, which will be nice. A comedy club started offering stand-up on a rooftop with spaced out seating in Brooklyn. When I read the doom and gloom stories online, it doesn't match the reality of what I see daily in my slice of NYC.
It'll be interesting. I'm not sure the news about places like FB going remote are as true as published. I just had an interview with FB for a data science role a few weeks ago and have no plans to relocate to NYC (unless they were offering $450k +). So, I asked about remote possibility. They said it would require relo. I checked out similar offers on levels.fyi and quickly removed myself from the process.
I just think eventually bean counters will start saying hey why are we paying this guy 170,000 a year when he lives in Milwaukee now? I remember when I was getting job offers in SF and they were offering $150k to start. After looking at the prices out there I declined. Even though it was a higher gross wage I would need to rent s I wasn’t about to buy a house up there I would be making less than I made where I lived. So I can see companies eventually saying wait a minute why are we paying so much now?
"Businesses are remote and they aren’t returning to the office. And it’s a death spiral — the longer offices remain empty, the longer they will remain empty."
Shutdown for a moment? NYC has been shut down since mid-March. It's now mid-August. That's 5 months and there is absolutely not end in sight. There is no timeline when the governor will fully reopen businesses. College campuses are closed all over the state and many don't even think they'll be open in the spring semester. NYC is in SERIOUS trouble.
And mortgages are 30 years, so one of them is a moment.
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