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Old 10-02-2020, 10:32 PM
 
Location: Sputnik Planitia
7,622 posts, read 10,914,212 times
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I feel this recession is nowhere as deep as 2008.. I recall in 2008 it was absolute and total carnage... carnage in the stock market, carnage all around me - people losing homes and jobs in crazy numbers, every day I would hear somebody I know getting laid off, it was insane.

Fast forward to now, I hear a few layoffs here and there but for the most part everything seems normal except for the social distancing aspect. The stock market made all time highs and is still near all time highs. Very few I know lost their jobs.

If you were to contrast now vs 2008, which do you think is worse? Do you feel it's heading towards something like 2008 or are we now in a recovery?

I am super surprised by this as I consider this crisis to be several factors worse than the 2008 Financial crash! I know the Fed has pumped Trillions but they did that in 2008 as well and that did not save us at that time but this time around it seems to be working.
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Old 10-03-2020, 01:07 AM
 
8,173 posts, read 3,153,755 times
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It's all related to the Fed pumping Trillions into the economy.

In 2008, the $1.5 Trillion combined package came into play after multiple bank failures and well after unemployment skyrocketed. We saw great recovery as a result.

In 2020, the $2 Trillion package passed very early before much of industry was impacted. This saved millions of jobs and is keeping our economy afloat. Without additional funding, the economy will have nothing to stand on as we're in a recessionary period that has yet to be realized. That is why congress is working through another stimulus package as we speak.

It's too early to tell what the real recessionary impact is as the fed is masking reality.
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Old 10-03-2020, 03:40 AM
 
98,766 posts, read 97,940,163 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
I feel this recession is nowhere as deep as 2008.. I recall in 2008 it was absolute and total carnage... carnage in the stock market, carnage all around me - people losing homes and jobs in crazy numbers, every day I would hear somebody I know getting laid off, it was insane.

Fast forward to now, I hear a few layoffs here and there but for the most part everything seems normal except for the social distancing aspect. The stock market made all time highs and is still near all time highs. Very few I know lost their jobs.

If you were to contrast now vs 2008, which do you think is worse? Do you feel it's heading towards something like 2008 or are we now in a recovery?

I am super surprised by this as I consider this crisis to be several factors worse than the 2008 Financial crash! I know the Fed has pumped Trillions but they did that in 2008 as well and that did not save us at that time but this time around it seems to be working.
2008 was a financial system collapse .. money is the blood of business and everything ground to a halt .

the credit system froze and money stopped flowing through the banking system ..it was nothing like this now
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Old 10-03-2020, 06:50 AM
 
3,940 posts, read 2,049,168 times
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The central banks are trapped, because the low interest rate environments they conjured (demanded by politicians) over the past decade have created stagnation instead of growth. In the EU there are zombie banks, here in the USA we have zombie companies. The “zombies” are business entities that are solvent only because they have access to credit at rates near zero.

The cure for all of this is a massive and deflationary repricing of the debt held by the zombies.

https://www.heavenofhorror.com/wp-co...-Dead-1978.jpg

Last edited by elnina; 10-06-2020 at 02:56 AM.. Reason: Copyrighted.
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Old 10-03-2020, 07:56 AM
 
5,778 posts, read 3,902,984 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
I feel this recession is nowhere as deep as 2008.. I recall in 2008 it was absolute and total carnage... carnage in the stock market, carnage all around me - people losing homes and jobs in crazy numbers, every day I would hear somebody I know getting laid off, it was insane.

Fast forward to now, I hear a few layoffs here and there but for the most part everything seems normal except for the social distancing aspect. The stock market made all time highs and is still near all time highs. Very few I know lost their jobs.

If you were to contrast now vs 2008, which do you think is worse? Do you feel it's heading towards something like 2008 or are we now in a recovery?

I am super surprised by this as I consider this crisis to be several factors worse than the 2008 Financial crash! I know the Fed has pumped Trillions but they did that in 2008 as well and that did not save us at that time but this time around it seems to be working.

It’s too early to compare. I think the potential for second or third waves of Covid if it follows the path of the Spanish flu is what will break the stock market and the economy. 2021 into 2022 could be it. I’m still extremely bearish on the economy. And like one of my favorite videos on the Great Depression says “another title wave of selling, hit the exchange. And this time? No one came to the rescue”. The fiscal and monetary stimulus may have already ran out.

I don’t know if it’s possible for my state to get hit much harder than it did in 2008. And my personal situation is far more insulated than it was then. I think this coming (IMO) steep recession is going to be far more widespread to most of the country than 2008 but not as deep as it was in some places then.
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Old 10-03-2020, 09:37 AM
 
Location: Flyover part of Virginia
3,041 posts, read 1,613,943 times
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That's because the real bloodbath hasn't begun... We've pumped in multiple trillions of dollars of "stimulus".... and we're getting basically a stagnant economy in return. That should tell you how terrible things are. QE4 is already far bigger than QEs 1, 2, and 3 combined, and trust me we're just getting started.

The last crisis was essentially a corporate and banking crisis. This crisis will be a currency crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. This time, it won't be just companies and financial institutions that fail- America as a nation will fail. There will be blood in the streets, literally.
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Old 10-03-2020, 10:07 AM
 
10,539 posts, read 4,712,956 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
I feel this recession is nowhere as deep as 2008... Fast forward to now, I hear a few layoffs here and there but for the most part everything seems normal...
Prior to the Pandemic, the USA had the best economy in the memory of any person alive today. For example, Las Vegas' unemployment rate was in the 3.5%-range; anyone with a pulse could get a good job.

Then the China Virus made it here. Unemployment peaked at 34% in April. It is now down around 15.5%.

I'd call 34% unemployment qualitatively different than "a few layoffs here and there."





At the same time, expectations in 2008 were different from today. Back then, the expectation was for a long and deep recession. Today, the expectation is for a rapid recovery.
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Old 10-03-2020, 10:32 AM
 
Location: Flyover part of Virginia
3,041 posts, read 1,613,943 times
Reputation: 4187
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
Prior to the Pandemic, the USA had the best economy in the memory of any person alive today. For example, Las Vegas' unemployment rate was in the 3.5%-range; anyone with a pulse could get a good job.

Then the China Virus made it here. Unemployment peaked at 34% in April. It is now down around 15.5%.

I'd call 34% unemployment qualitatively different than "a few layoffs here and there."





At the same time, expectations in 2008 were different from today. Back then, the expectation was for a long and deep recession. Today, the expectation is for a rapid recovery.
Why do people keep repeating this lie? The pre-Covid economy was an unsustainable debt-fueled hyper-bubble. That's why we were so vulnerable to Covid- the global financial system was collapsing after just a week or so of shutdowns.
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Old 10-03-2020, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
32,777 posts, read 27,298,414 times
Reputation: 43128
Keep in mind that the CARES stimulus is mostly gone. That has been propping up a lot of payrolls and households for the past six months. The airlines are probably the biggest example.

With that said, even though the data generally show things are worse than 2008, my personal opinion is that the white collar labor market is not nearly as bad as it was then. The vast majority of the people I know who have lost jobs have been in restaurants, bars, events, anything that caters to in-person work or crowds. Where I work, we did have a furlough, but the vast majority of the people were brought back - of those that didn't, virtually all have found other employment.

I have a family member who runs a painting company whose primary client was a hospital system that went bust. My uncle's business' is somewhat tied to commericial real estate and construction, and obviously that is struggling.

I'm in IT. Other than IT jobs at companies that are struggling due to the pandemic, there hasn't been much interruption in the labor market that I can tell.
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Old 10-03-2020, 02:10 PM
 
8,173 posts, read 3,153,755 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
Prior to the Pandemic, the USA had the best economy in the memory of any person alive today. For example, Las Vegas' unemployment rate was in the 3.5%-range; anyone with a pulse could get a good job.

Then the China Virus made it here. Unemployment peaked at 34% in April. It is now down around 15.5%.

I'd call 34% unemployment qualitatively different than "a few layoffs here and there."

At the same time, expectations in 2008 were different from today. Back then, the expectation was for a long and deep recession. Today, the expectation is for a rapid recovery.
Prior to the pandemic, we had just began our recession. I wouldn't call that the best economy in memory...

Unemployment is not a good measure of the economy when you have so much government spending in place.
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