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I'm asking this in the most sensitive way. Apologies to anyone who feels offended by this. I'm just curious with the people that have died due to this disease, what will the impact be? With the majority in the senior citizen range, will Medicare and social security feel some impact? Many are currently unemployed, but curious as well if jobs have opened up due to these deaths, too? I was just wondering is all if anyone has any thoughts. There has been a lot of attention on how people are feeling the impacts because of people sheltering in place, but curious if anyone has any insight on this piece.
USA has about 54 million seniors, so even if most the covid-19 deceased were senior citizens the impact on US demographics (and social programs sensitive to demographics) would be negligible.
I'm asking this in the most sensitive way. Apologies to anyone who feels offended by this. I'm just curious with the people that have died due to this disease, what will the impact be? With the majority in the senior citizen range, will Medicare and social security feel some impact? Many are currently unemployed, but curious as well if jobs have opened up due to these deaths, too? I was just wondering is all if anyone has any thoughts. There has been a lot of attention on how people are feeling the impacts because of people sheltering in place, but curious if anyone has any insight on this piece.
Unless all the deceased lived in the same zip code which would feel the loss, the impact is nil.
I'm asking this in the most sensitive way. Apologies to anyone who feels offended by this. I'm just curious with the people that have died due to this disease, what will the impact be? With the majority in the senior citizen range, will Medicare and social security feel some impact? Many are currently unemployed, but curious as well if jobs have opened up due to these deaths, too? I was just wondering is all if anyone has any thoughts. There has been a lot of attention on how people are feeling the impacts because of people sheltering in place, but curious if anyone has any insight on this piece.
Don't fear offending. It's a legitimate question.
Assuming all 200,000 were Social Security recipients, there are 62 Million as of September so that's 0.3%.
Suffice to say no impact on Social Security or Medicare, and with respect to Medicare, any financial gains would be offset by the amount Medicare spent on their care during the last few days of their lives.
There are roughly 260 Million of working age in your economy.
So, 200,000 would be 0.08%.
Okay, what if 2 Million?
From the population-at-large it's only 0.8%, so no impact.
But if you're talking about the 12-16 age group, that would negatively impact labor staffing. Still, it wouldn't crash the economy. It would only cause wages in certain fields to rise due to labor shortages.
It really takes significantly large numbers to have an impact. If you want a case study, try the Black Death in Britain. The monarchy issued an edict that any person age 60 or under not working was to be thrown in the dungeon.
While that might seem like a bad thing, workers benefited, because land-owners, who wanted to continued living their lavish life-style that the god-thing granted only to them and no others, had to pay exorbitant wages to get workers to come work the fields. It effectively ended slavery and serfdom.
The morbid part about it is these people's lives were (more or less) considered disposable for politics and the health of the broader economy.
And yet we prolong the economic impacts of COVID by not taking better health precautions to protect community spread. Even those locales that are fully open are having to rethink their plans when cases spike significantly. And if they decide to remain defiant and stay open, consumer demand is going to continue to suffer until more of the population can feel safe to go out.
Its a vicious cycle and politicians need to realize that the health and economy are intertwined and you can't cure one without curing the other.
The main impact is the damage on the economy. Economic output has reduced and tens of millions have had their lives turned upside down due to the effects on the economy. I don't think there is a silver lining due to this pandemic. As far as the deaths go, I expect a drop in life expectancy when this is all over.
I'm asking this in the most sensitive way. Apologies to anyone who feels offended by this. I'm just curious with the people that have died due to this disease, what will the impact be? With the majority in the senior citizen range, will Medicare and social security feel some impact? Many are currently unemployed, but curious as well if jobs have opened up due to these deaths, too? I was just wondering is all if anyone has any thoughts. There has been a lot of attention on how people are feeling the impacts because of people sheltering in place, but curious if anyone has any insight on this piece.
The ECONOMIC effect of 200K to 300K deaths of mostly older people in a country that averages 2.8 MILLION deaths per year will hardly be a blip on the radar screen. However the economic devastation of the lost jobs due to the shutdowns will affect FAR more people than the number of people who died. The mental and physical effects of the shutdowns will also be considerable.
I wouldn't be surprised if the TOTAL number of deaths in the US this year is about the same or even less than previous years since many of the deaths from Covid came from the ranks of those who may have died from something else this year anyway.
The morbid part about it is these people's lives were (more or less) considered disposable for politics and the health of the broader economy.
The government must make trade-offs all the time using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). For example, when deciding to mandate air bags in automobiles, the government has a good idea of the costs each new car buyer will pay for a vehicle with an air bag vs. that vehicle without one. They have a good idea of the increased automobile insurance costs. They can come up with estimates of the number of lives airbags will save.
Then, they use the Value of a Statistical Life, multiplied by the estimated number of lives saved, to determine if an airbag mandate is worth it. Ditto for seat belts. Ditto for rear-view backup cameras. Ditto for regulations restricting air pollution.
This is done all the time. The Value of a Statistical Life is in the $5 Million to $10 Million range.
From the EPA's website:
Quote:
Suppose each person in a sample of 100,000 people were asked how much he or she would be willing to pay for a reduction in their individual risk of dying of 1 in 100,000, or 0.001%, over the next year. Since this reduction in risk would mean that we would expect one fewer death among the sample of 100,000 people over the next year on average, this is sometimes described as "one statistical life saved.” Now suppose that the average response to this hypothetical question was $100. Then the total dollar amount that the group would be willing to pay to save one statistical life in a year would be $100 per person × 100,000 people, or $10 million. This is what is meant by the "value of a statistical life.”
I wouldn't be surprised if the TOTAL number of deaths in the US this year is about the same or even less than previous years since many of the deaths from Covid came from the ranks of those who may have died from something else this year anyway.
CDC estimates the number of excess deaths from any cause, since Feb 1, at 221k-294k.
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