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As a practical matter, we are in the proverbial uncharted waters, so the large-scale quantitative macroeconometric models are flying a bit blind. (MIT, Penn/Wharton, Fed, Treasury, BLS, Chicago, others)
There are many risks - many of which are of our own making. The Biden administration insists on tying boat anchors to our economy in the way the Obama administration did, and that is not a good thing. If nut jobs like the shrill harpy Elizabeth Warren & mindless Occasional-Cortex were to have their way, our economy might not recover in our lifetimes.
And that is all too likely for comfort although less likely in my view than an uneven/hot and cool recovery. Wrecking the productive classes with withering tax increases right now is a horrendous idea but it sells to low information types on the left.
No matter how many times you say that it remains false. Although that kind of thinking nicely underscores that all of this stuff is way out of your league.
Why not rehash your $12MM, two year, oil well for some more laugh material.
If anyone is expecting the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, don't hold your breath. Not only will they won't, but they can't. Inflation is the only thing this economy has got going for it- without constant inflation, the financial system would quickly spiral into a deflationary collapse- a debt based fiat monetary system cannot function in a deflationary environment, that is why the 1930s was the last time we had a proper deflation. We had sound money back then, if you had a dollar in 1930, it was made of silver. A deflation was tolerable (although painful) back then. A deflation now works be nothing less than excruciating, although it needs to happen. Degenerate, banana republic monetary tactics such as QE, debt monetization, bailouts, "stimulus," etc might be easier politically, but they will cause far more distortion and pain in the long run.
A dollar was silver? If so, how can there also be a depression?
Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359
There was very little inflation under either Obama or Trump. The inflation we are experiencing now was to be expected.
This country is at the end stage of a major crisis. We've just lost 600,000 people in a disease epidemic which cost more lives than World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War put together. All kinds of things had to be done to keep the country on its feet. We had to pay unemployment benefits to people who literally could work for months because they could not work because of what they did for a living. It was necessary to pay others more than a market wage to keep them waiting on people in stores and other essential areas of the economy. Inflation has typically followed the wars this country has fought. What we have been through is akin to a war. Vaccines ended the worst public health crisis we've been through in 100 years.
My prediction is that the inflation will accelerate for a few months and than recede as the economy returns to normality.
The inflation will provide strong incentives in our market economy to get businesses hiring workers, producing, and manufacturing. Prices will ultimately slump as production reaches record levels, but by the time that occurs we'll be experiencing record levels of employment and prosperity.
Time will tell. I'm actually pretty positive about the future.
You should actually account for the amount people, during those wars, whom are civilians, and died from old age, disease combined with old age, and just illness in general. You will see this crisis is anything but the second coming of Justinian's Plague.
Is the Wolff thing a joke? When I mentioned Neo-Marxists earlier I wasn't really talking about you but suddenly your chaos logic and doom fetish makes way more sense.
You have a clear agenda and I'm not biting. Taggerung is right and many of you ignore facts and reality because you think that the music will never stop.
No matter how many times you say that it remains false. Although that kind of thinking nicely underscores that all of this stuff is way out of your league.
Why not rehash your $12MM, two year, oil well for some more laugh material.
Inflate means to expand, deflate means to contract. When you inflate a balloon, it expands, when you deflate it, it contracts. Prices do not expand and contract, they rise and fall. Money supply on the other hand, can expand/contract. Rising prices are not inflation, rather they are a symptom of inflation. The more abundant and common a thing is, the less it is worth. The same law applies to money- prices aren't actually rising, the purchasing power of the currency is falling.
A dollar was silver? If so, how can there also be a depression?
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Over-expansion of credit, ie debt, that could not be paid back. Back then, we had the discipline of a gold standard, so the Federal Reserve could not simply print its way out of depression as it does now (and thank God for that).
You should actually account for the amount people, during those wars, whom are civilians, and died from old age, disease combined with old age, and just illness in general. You will see this crisis is anything but the second coming of Justinian's Plague.
Between 1918 and 1919, the USA lost 675,000 people as a result of the Spanish Flu Epidemic. We have lost approximately 600,000 today as a result of Covid 19. Sure, our population is considerably larger, but the dislocating effect was very real. One of the posters here and his wife spent time in the hospital because of Covid. I had a co-worker who did as well. Every person in my office got sick with Covid, except me. Our whole economy was essentially shut down in early 2020 for about three months. It only gradually returned. We only stayed on our feet because of programs like unemployment insurance, PPP, and stimulus payments.
The country had to spend billions to subsidize the development of the coronavirus vaccines and provide money to get them where they needed to be and injected into the arms of our citizens.
It was a massively dislocating experience that was certain to cause inflation on some level. I wish I could live long enough to find out what historians would write about this period in fifty years.
The point is that no one should underestimate what we have been through and are still going through on some level. Until vaccination is common around the world for coronavirus we'll continue to experience problems on some level.
You have a clear agenda and I'm not biting. Taggerung is right and many of you ignore facts and reality because you think that the music will never stop.
I don't want zero information screamers like you and Taggerung wrecking the forum.
Taggerung makes things up as he goes and hopes no one will catch him. Look it up for yourself the other day he posted four very specific and utterly false claims about the oil business.
You guys are entitled to your opinions.......but when you try to sell feelings, guesswork and false information as legitimate you are going to get pushback.
Inflate means to expand, deflate means to contract. When you inflate a balloon, it expands, when you deflate it, it contracts. Prices do not expand and contract, they rise and fall. Money supply on the other hand, can expand/contract. Rising prices are not inflation, rather they are a symptom of inflation. The more abundant and common a thing is, the less it is worth. The same law applies to money- prices aren't actually rising, the purchasing power of the currency is falling.
Still wrong. Money supply expansion does not equal inflation. If you knew ANYTHING about econometrics and economic history you'd know preposterous these claims are.
Between 1918 and 1919, the USA lost 675,000 people as a result of the Spanish Flu Epidemic. We have lost approximately 600,000 today as a result of Covid 19. Sure, our population is considerably larger, but the dislocating effect was very real. One of the posters here and his wife spent time in the hospital because of Covid. I had a co-worker who did as well. Every person in my office got sick with Covid, except me. Our whole economy was essentially shut down in early 2020 for about three months. It only gradually returned. We only stayed on our feet because of programs like unemployment insurance, PPP, and stimulus payments.
The country had to spend billions to subsidize the development of the coronavirus vaccines and provide money to get them where they needed to be and injected into the arms of our citizens.
It was a massively dislocating experience that was certain to cause inflation on some level. I wish I could live long enough to find out what historians would write about this period in fifty years.
The point is that no one should underestimate what we have been through and are still going through on some level. Until vaccination is common around the world for coronavirus we'll continue to experience problems on some level.
The Spanish Flu was not enough for the World to stop fighting, so I say the 600K just wasnt a big deal. What is happening with Covid-19 is all Govt induced. I am not convinced we really went through anything other than our crazy Govt playing its usual tricks on us.
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