Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
It can be prevented and mitigated with proper population planning and efficiency upgrades. But there is no political will for either of those, just vague un-actionable climate accords.
I'm afraid the cataclysms that awaits us cannot be prevented. We are all aboard a runaway train, hurdling at breakneck speed towards an utterly unforgiving brick wall. There is no will to slow down this runaway train to make the impact less horrific- everyone just wants to continue in their euphoric drunken debt orgies whilst staring at pretty rainbows, pretending the ugly realities don't exist....
I'm afraid the cataclysms that awaits us cannot be prevented. We are all aboard a runaway train, hurdling at breakneck speed towards an utterly unforgiving brick wall. There is no will to slow down this runaway train to make the impact less horrific- everyone just wants to continue in their euphoric drunken debt orgies whilst staring at pretty rainbows, pretending the ugly realities don't exist....
I recently watched some stupid documentary about Dubai from 2007. The narrator explained they were trying to diversify their economy because the UAE would run out of oil by 2015.
Fast-forward to 2020 and not only have they not run out of oil but their output was 15% higher last year than it was in 2007.
The problem is that their economy continues to grow and consumes more of the oil that they would normally export. Exports have been in long-term decline. It is described in the Export Land Model.
Shale production will probably peak within five to ten years. They've extended the cycle by long-range horizontal drilling to extract more oil and using multi-well rigs to bring down the cost of extraction. Most output is coming from these old wells. It is just a matter of time. All of the growth in production from shale formations has been limited to the Permian Basin for some time.
They need much higher oil prices for deepwater and ultra deepwater.
Green energy is about the need to diversify away from oil and gas before the supply price shock in about 30 to 50 years. It also takes that long to replace the nationwide fleet and allow the new natural gas power plants to reach the end of their useful life. The declines in output are expected in the three main oil producers. It's been obvious by the many wars to control oil in Africa and Asia and the rush to exploit the Arctic.
Peak Oil is correct because it is based on the immutable laws of geology and thermodynamics- no belief and ideology is required, as is the case with "global warming"/"climate change."
Global oil production has peaked in November 2018. Peak means maximum production of a resource, it's simple math! The only way to disprove Peak Oil is by demonstrating that it is possible to extract a finite resource indefinitely.
Or to show that it is not a finite resource. If oil can be produced abiotically, peak oil theory disappears.
I'm afraid the cataclysms that awaits us cannot be prevented. We are all aboard a runaway train, hurdling at breakneck speed towards an utterly unforgiving brick wall. There is no will to slow down this runaway train to make the impact less horrific- everyone just wants to continue in their euphoric drunken debt orgies whilst staring at pretty rainbows, pretending the ugly realities don't exist....
They cannot be prevented because we refuse to enact austerity measures.
Remember what happened in March 2020? The environment improved dramatically in just a matter of months.
I like you. But we are not moving past oil for at least 3 or 4 decades and we simply could not without utter economic devastation. Further, a growing mass of thinkers in the area seem to believe we cannot really go net green unless and until we go hard into nuclear. That ain't happening next week.
All good. If we all had the same information and perspectives, there would not be much discussion.
You have at least looked at some Tony Seba? He appears to be on track with this, so far. Maybe catch the first 10 or 15 if you have not caught any of this? He has a fun, dry humor, presentation style.
While I am an EE type -- most of this is actually your domain -- economics, right? More Nukes for US are not too likely due to the money. They are pretty much the most expensive and most useless generation we have. There is just no market for New Nukes or their product -- Baseload Electricity -- which is so cheap and surplus, we are giving away "Free Electricity" overnight and weekends in Texas. You have seen that?
The folks promoting New Nukes are doing so as they are the last-stand for "Central Plant" model. We probably hit "Peak Nukes" for US back in 2012. We peaked at about 104 Reactors, and are now down to 94 iirc, and dropping.
You follow what Central Plant is, right? It is a model where (any source) Central Utility sends out product to many local Revenue Meters, and Cash Flow goes back to the Central Plant. So that can be a Coal, Gas, Nuke, Big Wind, Water . . . on and on . . . system. Again, Central Plant model is more of an Economic Thing rather than technical-electrical-or-engineering thing. The big risk and likely death ahead for Electrical Central Plant model is that local Silicon Solar PV undercuts the entire process. Once that behind-the-meter customer goes away, they are gone for life.
Just catching an Industry meeting in the background now . . . says Renewable has grown 150% in the last 5 years. 25% per year growth -- and compounding. What does that mean to you from the Economist point of view?
Or to show that it is not a finite resource. If oil can be produced abiotically, peak oil theory disappears.
Not so much.
The source does not so much matter as does the Resource Pile. We started with a BIG pile of Oil. We have spent more than a few years and much treasure digging into the pile, with little to no real recovery.
Unless your abiotic source can produce at or more the consumption rate, you still hit the bottom.
It is just math. Only real path out is to quit.
Sort of amazes me how hard folks will fight to maintain a self-destructive habit. Cigarettes, Alcoholism, Oil Addiction . . . lot of comparable modeling in this.
The source does not so much matter as does the Resource Pile. We started with a BIG pile of Oil. We have spent more than a few years and much treasure digging into the pile, with little to no real recovery.
Unless your abiotic source can produce at or more the consumption rate, you still hit the bottom.
It is just math. Only real path out is to quit.
Sort of amazes me how hard folks will fight to maintain a self-destructive habit. Cigarettes, Alcoholism, Oil Addiction . . . lot of comparable modeling in this.
The "math" said we would hit peak oil before the year 2000, remember?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
