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Yeah, 1980 sucked bad economically. Interest rates, inflation, gold gone crazy along with looming “energy crisis”
55 mph, metric system etc…. Is it all coming back around ? (I actually like the metric system!). Oh, and of course the Howard Ruff newsletter (I believe he’s passed at this point) - doom profit.
If the Fed really wants to stop inflation cold, I would agree we're headed for an 80-81 redux.
If the Fed is unnerved by the economic damage and relents, then I would say we are just starting with a long inflation cycle, and a wage-price spiral that becomes the new normal.
OMG, can you imaging trying to change to the metric system today? Anybody who mentioned the temperature in Celsius would be called a Marxist, or worse.
1980 - lived it. Seemed like the entire country was depressed. President Carter “where all gonna have to get along with less” upside was grandpas CDs at 18%
Looks like Uncle Joe&Co get to keep the money printer going brrrrr so forget 1980s, this might end up being Weimar Republic part II where we’ll be showing up with wheelbarrows of dollars to buy a loaf of bread.
Yeah, 1980 sucked bad economically. Interest rates, inflation, gold gone crazy along with looming “energy crisis”
55 mph, metric system etc…. Is it all coming back around ? (I actually like the metric system!). Oh, and of course the Howard Ruff newsletter (I believe he’s passed at this point) - doom profit.
As you probably recall, 1980 came after 10 plus years of high inflation and failed attempts to tame it. Admittedly oil shocks are outside the Fed's control.
By comparison, we have only seen 18 to 24 months of above trend inflation as of Nov. 2022. Not the same situation faced by Volker in 1980. A hard landing may be looming but we have much tighter labor markets in 2022 and fewer workers to fill empty spots than we did in 1980 (when boomers were young and immigration was rising).
Most projections for unemployment that I have seen are for an increase to the 5 to 6 percent range in late 2023. Hardly the double digit unemployment rate of the early 80's.
As you probably recall, 1980 came after 10 plus years of high inflation and failed attempts to tame it. Admittedly oil shocks are outside the Fed's control.
By comparison, we have only seen 18 to 24 months of above trend inflation as of Nov. 2022. Not the same situation faced by Volker in 1980. A hard landing may be looming but we have much tighter labor markets in 2022 and fewer workers to fill empty spots than we did in 1980 (when boomers were young and immigration was rising).
Most projections for unemployment that I have seen are for an increase to the 5 to 6 percent range in late 2023. Hardly the double digit unemployment rate of the early 80's.
This is what I was thinking. That this won't be the kind of retreat that results in mass layoffs unless it gets very, very deep, because there was already so much unfilled labor demand out there. I think it will actually be good for a lot of businesses. Restaurants in my area finally seem to be getting back to something approaching normal staffing.
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