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OK, each person needs to get real in this country. Many can afford what they want. I live in an affluent area but there are people here hurting, however, I joke to myself that it will be a recession when I can walk into Houston's (a restaurant) without a wait. (It is usually 30-60 minutes not in season).
We live in a great country. Wake up in the morning; look around you; see the positives. (Would you like to live in Afghanistan?) It's up to you - you can get an education and do better. Extend yourself. You'd be surprised.
I was just at a doctor's appointment - standard waiting room, lots of people, lots of magazines. I started talking to a guy who just lost his job; all of sudden, others chimed in; business cards being passed around; everyone talking to each other. It just takes someone to get it started.
Turn off the negative TV. Go for a walk. Be glad you can. There are those in wheelchairs who would give anything to walk. Volunteer. Spend some time with someone else.
I told my kids - maybe this slowdown is a good thing. Families will learn to live together; drive together. Make dinner together. Come up with good, healthy ideas. Get to know your neighbors, your co-workers.
Look at what you have; not what you don't have. Life is not fair. You can only control so much. Treat people better. Make goals. Try to be positive in this very negative world.
Everything works in cycles. Work with what you have, do the right thing, get involved; you will be amazed at what happens.
The US isn't going to look like bangladesh next year or in 5 years or 10 years.
Out of the people I've read in economics/finance, Jim Rogers has the most accurate big picture view of what's going on. At least he explains it in the simplest terms.
Country's don't turn to dust overnight. They have too much momentum. The US has too much infrastructure, too much education (even though it isn't necessarily the right education), too much support underneath it to crumble tomorrow.
Look at Japan. They were a rich, modern country up until 1990. Then they went into an 18 year slump. Their stock market has done nothing in 20 years. But they still have electricity, they still go out to nightclub.
Jim gives similar examples with England, Italy, countries that use to be on top. They are too modern to fall off the face of the earth.
Also books like, Guns, Germs and Steel go into explaining why some countries are successful and why some aren't. Why bangladesh looks like bangladesh.
Also, the country is far too varied for it to uniformly fall into bangladesh poverty.
Another problem with the way financial news is reported. It's not localized. The media gobbles everything up and then "reports"..."mortgage crisis". When it's actually only a crisis in a few states, not in all 50 states. And even in those states, it's only in a few areas.
I can't believe how pathetic the national news media has been in reporting this calamity/crisis. Just abysmal reporting.
The real problem is high gas prices. If oil was $20/bbl or even $60/bbl, things would be better now than they were in the 1990s. The housing "crisis" has been way overblown by the media.
33% of all homeowners own their homes free & clear.
I personally do not but I have 2 family members who do. One of them is my sister and her family. She paid off her home in 7 years, has 3 teenagers and her husband who now has Parkinson's. She bought the home in 1992 and paid it off by 1999. No debt at all.
Is an America that looks like a giant Bangladesh in our future?
Yes. To prevent that, the US can either invade Iran, or take action to position itself.
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Originally Posted by JoeyT
If so, how long till we get there?
The US will enter recession 4th Quarter 2008. It'll be mild and appear to get better, then worsen. It'll continue to steadily worsen until January 2016 when the US enters a full blown depression that will last until about 2024/2025 or so.
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Originally Posted by JoeyT
What % of 300 million here will be roaming the streets scavenging trash cans before things start to pick up?
None. People will do what people have been doing for some time in Washington and Oregon, and that is house-sharing. People there do it because housing is so expensive, but in the future people will do it to share resources. You and another family rent a 3-bedroom apartment, with you and your spouse taking one bedroom, the other couple gets the 2nd bedroom and the kids share the 3rd. You share internet, cable/satellite and cell-phone planes, plus rent and utilities, and child care isn't an issue, so your disposable income would be much higher and allow you to maintain some semblance of your former life-style. At least you'll be able to dine out once or twice a month and catch a film at the cinema show.
[quote=JoeyT;4482119] Will they EVER pick up?[/qutoe]
Sure, but it will never be like it was. When the dust clears, about 50 Million people will permanently lose their jobs and never work again, and on top of that, there'll be perennial 8%-10% unemployment, so you should get used to buzz words like "house-dad," "house-husband" and "stay-at-home dad" because that will be the norm, since there'll only be one wage-earner per family (if you're lucky).
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Originally Posted by JoeyT
Will the descent be rapid or slow-motion?
Very slowly. Slow enough to be deceptive. The 1978 Carter mini-Depression was the result of Cost Inflation, then the Democrat-controlled Congress enacted the largest tax increase in US history and that really set things off. Within 3 years, cities were laying off police and firefighters, and closing offices because they had no revenues, then counties were laying off sheriff's deputies and courts were on reduced hours to save money because sales tax revenues declined, then states started closing offices, laying off employees, and operating other offices on partial hours. Like here in Ohio, the state unemployment office was closed Tuesdays and Fridays, and open half-days on Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, because the state was paying out massive unemployment, food stamp and other social welfare benefits, but wasn't collecting payroll taxes because no one was working.
Without a tax hike, it'll be a slow painful descent into Hell. With a tax hike, it'll be a white-knuckle ride into Hell.
Here's what people don't realize. The Great Depression was really a government caused economic disaster, not a case of the markets running amok. Want the run-down?
-- First, go back to the early 20s, when tariffs were being slapped onto agricultural imports. Before tariffs, an American farmer could sell wheat for about $1 a bushel. Three years after tariffs, because of retaliatory tariffs from other countries, American farmers could, at best, hope for 25 cents a bushel.
-- This served to seriously weaken rural banks in this country.
-- Fast forward to 1929. Simplistic people love to look at the Stock Market Crash as the cause of the Great Depression. However, the stock market has suffered similar routs since then with no long-term affect on the economy. The truth is that it was a catalyst for the real catastrophe, namely the scores of bad decision making that took place in the halls of government. Namely:
-- The Federal Reserve's disastrous decision to tighten credit, not loosen it. This is akin to fighting a small brush fire with 20 gallons of gasoline.
-- The Federal Government jacked up income taxes. This was a particularly horrible decision, especially at a time when people needed money the most.
-- Oh, and the hits just kept coming. The Hawley Smoot Tarriff act eviscerated trade.
So government caused the Great Depression. And it certainly wasn't the solution.
You forgot to mention the FDR New Deal programs that deepened the depression far more than the above factors.
OK, each person needs to get real in this country. Many can afford what they want. I live in an affluent area but there are people here hurting, however, I joke to myself that it will be a recession when I can walk into Houston's (a restaurant) without a wait. (It is usually 30-60 minutes not in season).
Until the foreigners cut off our credit line, even the poorest person can enjoy a lovely filet mignon dinner for two with good ol' plastic. Me thinks you'll be zipping through the lines at Houston's once credit transforms from entitlement to privilege.
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We live in a great country. Wake up in the morning; look around you; see the positives. (Would you like to live in Afghanistan?) It's up to you - you can get an education and do better. Extend yourself. You'd be surprised.
I'm a firm believer in a real genuine collapse in the American economy, yet I whistle everyday to work, smile at others, help in my community, and surround myself with positive people. Other than economics, nearly every other aspect of my life is 110% positive.
There's a difference between pessimism and realism.
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I was just at a doctor's appointment - standard waiting room, lots of people, lots of magazines. I started talking to a guy who just lost his job; all of sudden, others chimed in; business cards being passed around; everyone talking to each other. It just takes someone to get it started.
Some nice Tony Robbins talk here. I like it. Kum-ba-ya, Kum-ba-ya .
Quote:
Turn off the negative TV. Go for a walk. Be glad you can. There are those in wheelchairs who would give anything to walk. Volunteer. Spend some time with someone else.
I told my kids - maybe this slowdown is a good thing. Families will learn to live together; drive together. Make dinner together. Come up with good, healthy ideas. Get to know your neighbors, your co-workers.
Look at what you have; not what you don't have. Life is not fair. You can only control so much. Treat people better. Make goals. Try to be positive in this very negative world.
Everything works in cycles. Work with what you have, do the right thing, get involved; you will be amazed at what happens.
I think you are confusing economic doom and gloomers with generally gloomy people. I am living proof they do not co-exist.
How far are we from 250 million peple living like this?
Please tell me you're joking. Talk about panicking, man some people are good at it.
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Keep it in perspective
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