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Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,259 posts, read 24,763,471 times
Reputation: 3587
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No. The bad news is way overplayed and the good news is not played enough. Just in the last week:
1. Oil plummets and is continuing in freefall
2. The dollar is regaining strength
3. Retail sales are up
4. The stock markets are up
But yet all we hear is about the rising unemployment rate (which is still near historical lows) and the sinking housing market (which was way overpriced to begin with). The economy, while is could be better, is still doing remarkably well depending on what part of the country you live in. If you live in Michigan or Ohio, you might be feeling a bit of pain. If you live here in Georgia or Florida or Texas, you are scratching your head saying "recession? what recession?" as you drive down the road and see NOW HIRING signs in front of every business.
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,259 posts, read 24,763,471 times
Reputation: 3587
Quote:
Originally Posted by downtownnola
I think that the media has blown this recession way out of proportion. If the media did not report on it, relatively few people would likely even know we were in a recession.
I was at the mall this past Saturday and it was so jam packed that I could barely find a parking space... maybe people are starting their Christmas shopping early this year!
The media keeps talking about the "housing crisis," even though the current foreclosure rate is only about 2%... my friends, relatives and co-workers seem to be doing fine. I don't know anyone who is in bankruptcy. Later on this week, I am getting a review at my job for a raise. I choose to think for myself rather than listen to the media. I don't think that things are nearly as bad as they would have us to beleive.
You ain't kiddin! You had better get it done now because this Christmas is gonna be a barn burner! Probably the best in the last 20 years!
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,259 posts, read 24,763,471 times
Reputation: 3587
You know what really got me last month when they announced that unemployment was up by a small amount, all the TV news was showing was a line at the unemployment office with maybe 40 people in it. They even did a "live" from in front of the unemployment office! That very same day there were THOUSANDS of people lined up to buy the new IPhone at ATT stores. The line at the Atlantic Station store here was over 4 blocks long! Yet the TV was not there and didn't even mention it!
I live in the South, right smack in the furniture capitol to be exact and I can tell you that many of the furniture companies are outsourcing to China, closing their doors here and laying off like crazy. It is one to two companies per month. So, yes I can see we are in a recession. In my job, I see many who cannot pay even a small monthly utility, often calling me up and asking if they can pay half now and half later.
Yes, many of our malls and restuarants are packed as well, and I am assuming that people are either putting on credit cards, or simply mis-managing their money all the way around.
We see a lot right now on unemployment and when that runs out, what then? Many of these workers do not have a high school diploma, and unless they go for training in a different work environment, what will they do for jobs?
I have seen it hit us a bit as well, with the higher prices of fuel and food and now our electricity to go up 25% in October. Everything has gone up around here, but, our rates of pay have not risen to meet the basic cost of living.
What will happen to the elderly who are on a very low fixed income? Already they are being hit with higher food, and now electricity? What will they do without each month? As many of you know, our elderly are part of another generation who do not complain so who knows how many of them are in dire straights right now?
Recessions don't just happen overnight. Back when the stock market crashed in 1929, it wasn't till 1931-32 that people began to realize that there was a problem. It takes from 12 to 18 months for a financial event to affect life for the average person. By the way, I do not watch TV - all my news comes from the internet, mostly from foreign sources, as domestic media are censored.
That said, something has definitely happened, continues to happen, and will keep happening until it's over with. That something is a credit crisis. Lenders got awfully greedy several years ago, and decided to securitize debt - not just mortgages, but auto loans, school loans, even credit cards. Investors bought these securities with the expectation of making profits. Some of the 'investors' were retirement funds, and these losses won't be realized for many years ahead.
A house does not have to be in foreclosure for the payments to become late, or stop altogether. Many 'homeowners' are still living in their houses 12 months after their last payments. As for bankruptcy, most people with outstanding debts do not bother to file for bankruptcy. But they are not paying their bills, either!
I have made it a point to question realtors about the housing market, and from the horse's mouth I hear that even people with good credit have problems securing a mortgage. Banks simply don't have the money to lend. The FDIC refuses to release the names of the banks on their watch list; IndyMac wasn't even on it, so that gives you some idea of the scope of the problem. As for the construction industry, I know for a fact that many, many construction workers are no longer working in that field. Some of them are not working at all, having no other skills.
I'm not trying to preach doom and gloom here. Right now, the average person's life has not been touched by the credit crisis. It will be. I don't know when. It may end up not being such a big deal. Then again, lots of people could end up being hurt by this. Oil prices are not helping, nor are the deficits on the federal, state, municipal, or corporate levels. We are awash in a sea of debt. Most of it will be unpayable. If you have not seen any of this affecting those around you, perhaps you have not been looking for it. Take a good look!
You can lump us into the bolded text above. Been at this trades biz for better than 20+ years and while not officially unemployed. The hours are skeleton crew like.
The economy looks fine to some huh? Well not to us it doesn't. We are SUFFERING.
You know what really got me last month when they announced that unemployment was up by a small amount, all the TV news was showing was a line at the unemployment office with maybe 40 people in it. They even did a "live" from in front of the unemployment office! That very same day there were THOUSANDS of people lined up to buy the new IPhone at ATT stores. The line at the Atlantic Station store here was over 4 blocks long! Yet the TV was not there and didn't even mention it!
How many of those people buying iDork gadgets paid cash or used a credit card they pay off every month?
No. The bad news is way overplayed and the good news is not played enough. Just in the last week:
1. Oil plummets and is continuing in freefall
Quote:
Consumption. Preliminary data indicates that global consumption rose by roughly 500,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) during the first half of 2008 compared with year-earlier levels, as a 1.3-million bbl/d rise in consumption outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was partially countered by an 800,000 bbl/d drop in U.S. consumption compared with year-earlier levels. The decline in U.S. consumption in the first half of 2008, reflecting slower economic growth and the impact of high prices, was the largest half-year consumption decline in volume terms in the last 26 years, when, in the first half of 1982, consumption dropped by nearly 800,000 bbl/d. Total world oil consumption is expected to grow by a little over 1 million bbl/d during the second half of 2008 and by almost 1 million bbl/d in 2009 compared with year-earlier levels. The projection for 2009 consumption is about 460,000 bbl/d lower than last month's assessment, reflecting lower expectations for consumption in the United States and other OECD countries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevK
2. The dollar is regaining strength
Due to increased demand for agricultural commodities. It's harvest time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevK
3. Retail sales are up
Are you using frog urine to induce your hallucinogenic fantasies now?
Quote:
Results from US retailers including Wal-Mart have shown disappointing sales for July, with the outlook between now and September looking poor. The results came as shoppers ran out of tax rebate cash, and consumers faced rising petrol and food prices.
Wal-Mart said same-store sales in July rose 3%, below analysts' expectations. Meanwhile rival Target's same-store sales fell 1.2%, worse than expected.
Limited Brands, Pacific Sunwear and Gap all posted drops in sales as well.
Limited Brands reported a 5% decline in same-store sales, Gap suffered an 11% same-store sales drop, and Pacific Sunwear of California posted a 4% drop.
Elsewhere in the US retail sector, Hot Topic's same-store sales fell 2.1%, while department store firms JC Penney and Kohl's both posted bigger-than-expected drops in same-store sales.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevK
4. The stock markets are up
Stock markets do not reflect economic conditions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevK
But yet all we hear is about the rising unemployment rate (which is still near historical lows)
Unemployment originally included the prison population, did not include the military, and included those who were no longer drawing unemployment benefits, but still seeking work.
Carter stopped counting the prison population.
Reagan added the military.
Clinton dropped those who weren't collecting benefits any longer.
Unemployment figures now include only those drawing benefits, adjusted by a survey of 60,000 homes on the 12th of each month. I don't find that to be statistically valid.
I've seen it in worse shape and better shape.Seems every generation needs to learn the lesson of responsiblity the hard way.The epoole that learned the lesson earlier are doing fine and those that never learn are in the same trouble it seems.
Every time I turn on the TV or look at the news on the Internet, I am constantly reminded that the American Economy is in terrible shape. Words like recession, economic downturn, depression, unemployment, inflation, etc. are constantly being used.
But if I did not follow the news it would seem like we are doing fine. The Malls are jammed with shoppers, all my friends and relatives are working and getting raises and promotions, restaurants are jammed and traffic is still heavy at rush hour.
If you did not watch the news would you notice this terrible economy in your day to day life?
I agree that Middle and lower class American's are suffering terribly right now with the finances but when the media says "america" or "they", it's a given that they are referring to Middle and lower classes.
All the rich people that I knew/know are still rich as far as I know! Still driving the SUV's, still going out to clubs, still dining out 2-3 times a week, still shopping at Neiman's and Sak's...I don't know any rich people who have told me that "I am going to stop buying $300 jeans because of economy is bad" or I am going to trade in my SUV cause I can't afford gas.
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