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Good thread. I think you see more and more foreigners pull out of the stock market, because they now realize Wall Street is full of crooks. And then you'll see the value of the dollar start to sink like the Titantic and everyone will start heading for the life boats.
Good thread. I think you see more and more foreigners pull out of the stock market, because they now realize Wall Street is full of crooks. And then you'll see the value of the dollar start to sink like the Titantic and everyone will start heading for the life boats.
The DOW will fall below 9,000 before year end. Oil really depends on the value of the dollar, but if the dollar keeps rising, $70 is possible. If not, it could easily shoot back up to over $100. Unemployment will top 8% by year end and top 10% in Q1 2009.
The same people will demand bailouts. In fact, Buffett, Gross, and others on WS are already asking for more money (1.5 trillion).
The central banks have pumped in over a trillion dollars in the last six weeks. It's doubtful that the first installment of 250 or 350 billion dollars from the bailout will make much of a dent. As a result, I think it's limited to the small group of money center banks around which the Fed is trying to consolidate the banking system.
I think the market heads down into the end of the year or mid-January with the possibility of 2-3 week bounce in October-November. Things look tough for financial firms as they have to sell off assets when they close out their quarters (see March, Jun-July, and now) and their end of year. I think the next target is around 1000 on the SPX with it being likely that 900-950 will be reached to fullfill the head and shoulders top that was formed between 1440 and 1170 (notice it's now tried three times to rally back above 1170 and failed). I don't believe that's the end of the downturn but it may precede a very large rally before the final decline.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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Christmas is not going to be whole of fun for a lot of folk. I'm going to be very interested in watch the non-profit Christmas organization my parent volunteer for every year. They collect food and clothes, etc. donations and give out them out to people that are in unfortunate positions. I expect less donations and more people looking for help this year.
Yes it will be interesting comes the holiday's, me thinks.
Remember last Christmas..it was all gloom and doom for the retailers and they didn't do too well either.
This Christmas will be ugly..very ugly for retailers.
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