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Old 12-23-2008, 10:10 AM
 
242 posts, read 649,912 times
Reputation: 192

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Hey, in May of 2005 I predicted the start of the crash at Oct 2005 with the new bankruptcy rules.

September 2005 was the peak. After that home sales and prices dropped from then on. Great Depression similie too.

I feel pain of Peter Schiff and others who were laughed at, the local news station called me and basically laughed at me. My fellow realtors just made fun of me. Many of my agents just went somewhere else. I was crazy.

I tried to talk people out of it..I did. And I lost a lot of business trying to save them. Even now, as prices are really dropping, people are still trying to buy homes. Most are first time home buyers. If you are one of these people I implore you to shut off your tv and stop drinking the kool-aid. Do not buy a home right now!!!!

THIS IS NOT OVER YET.... you first time home buyers DO NOT BUY ONE NOW!!! You will lose your savings.

May 2005
Sell your home now, or risk the coming real estate crash
http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read.html?id=3721
"time to sell and get out".

Excerpts....

(May 13th, 2005)- We at Atlas Homes in Florida say it is time to sell if you own investments. Huge condo complexes are being built everywhere (just like before in the late 80s before the condo market crashed). Apartment complexes are converting to condos/townhomes which tells you what the corporate investors are thinking "time to sell and get out".

Real Estate is going crazy, bidding wars are all the frenzy for even run down homes. People are jumping in to get rich quick on what may be the tail end of the bubble.




Interest-Only loans: In the 1920s these type of loans became popular so people could free up money to buy stocks. After many lost their homes and fortunes in the market crash bankers only allowed their rich clients to obtain these loans.

If you are a property owner I say sell now and put the money in the bank. All of it. Rent a house for a year or so and get ready for some super bargains to be had as people unload their 2nd, 3rd, and other investment properties. Those who need to sell will sell and sell low. Prices will probably stagnate as they did in the 90s after the last Real Estate bust, so deals will be everywhere as people try to save themselves financially

Last edited by Waterlily; 12-23-2008 at 08:37 PM.. Reason: copyright isssues
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Old 12-23-2008, 10:21 AM
 
48,519 posts, read 81,013,914 times
Reputation: 17978
You seem to have joined the forums in 2008 ;so its hard to varify that posting of yours.
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Old 12-23-2008, 10:32 AM
 
242 posts, read 649,912 times
Reputation: 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
You seem to have joined the forums in 2008 ;so its hard to varify that posting of yours.

Not much is left online of comments from the 2005 articles, but here are some things to see to prove it...

This is a news aggregation site from may 13th 2005, wn.com.
Go to bottom right of page to see the article listing. (under politics listing)
Refineries

Here is the internet way back machine cache from may 13 2005. You can see the article title listed on the right hand side about half way down. Under 'latest news', 7th down
http://web.archive.org/web/200505131...algateway.com/

And following that link will bring you to the cache from the 13th
http://web.archive.org/web/200505260...d.html?id=3721

Mortgage news site, listing from May 13th 2005
http://www.mortgages-magazine.com/mo...005-5-13_1.htm

This page was done in may 2005
Mortgage Loan Network Blog Archive Sell your home now, or risk the coming real estate crash
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Old 12-23-2008, 10:34 AM
 
28,383 posts, read 67,919,335 times
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I did not know about this forum back in 2005, but I did see some disturbing trends in the people that were doing 'flips'. Lots of fraudulent loans to people that never did "owner occupy" the place that they were fixing up. Lots of people buying those places with NO equity and NO verification of income /assets.

I have to be honest though, I had some faith that the MBSs/CDOs and CDSs might be "magic" and work the way the "rocket sciencists" designed them -- moderating risk and generating return to keep the wheels spinning. I really did believe that MAYBE all their fancy mathematical models had tapped into something as poor smucks who barely squeaked out of calcus based statisical analysis in college just could not grasp.

Well how wrong was THAT?!?

If I had put more money AGAINST the market I would be filthy rich, instead of licking my wounds from merely having not lost as much as some...

Ah hindsight!

ANOTHER lesson for thatguywho, and anybody else, is "past performance is no indicator of future gains" -- a fancy way of saying "just cause you were correct once before, don't get cocky and think you'll be right again"...
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Old 12-23-2008, 10:35 AM
 
Location: US
1,189 posts, read 3,551,938 times
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But I just found a cute house in my price range...

So you are thinking the bottom is going to fall out of the market nationwide or just certain markets?
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Old 12-23-2008, 10:39 AM
 
16,700 posts, read 18,913,643 times
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You should NOT buy a home (that you LIVE in) as an investment... it should be a HOME... if its in your price range than you can still buy it (albeit underbid the home) and you should be fine because you are paying a realistic price for it... however if you are buying for investment (i.e. you do NOT live in the home), its probably a poor time to buy (the idiots are buying now and losing money)... you can wait it out...
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Old 12-23-2008, 10:48 AM
 
242 posts, read 649,912 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post

ANOTHER lesson for thatguywho, and anybody else, is "past performance is no indicator of future gains" -- a fancy way of saying "just cause you were correct once before, don't get cocky and think you'll be right again"...
I just want to say I am selling nothing. My RE and MOrt business are on hold. My only concern is to help people.

As to getting cocky about being right again...what if I was right a whole bunch after that?...lol

I am hoping by proving my ability that people will listen and not buy now.

On April 4th, 2008 i said some things too..
How to survive the Great Depression of 2008 - 2009

1- oil was at 120. People said it would go to 200. I said 34 by years end or close to it. January contract just closed at 33.80 with febuary starting at 42.

2- I wrote a side article explaining how dangerous renting can be if you do not follow some steps. People are now being thrown out of foreclosures they were renting en masse. I tried to warn them, my steps would have prevented it.

3- I said not to walk away from foreclosures. They did, now neighborhoods are empty, homes gutted, and many not winterized (thus getting destroyed).

4- "A whole bunch of fake baloney will happen on capitol hill regarding the lending industry but nothing will happen, other than your taxpayer money making sure the lenders did not lose a penny." I am gonna put this down as a correct prediction, but I would love to see an arguement that is was not right.

5- Oh yea, oil is gonna go to two hundred you say. Hey, it is your money, go ahead and gamble it like a moron. It will start dropping back down on its way to 34 bucks a barrel by year's end (it will eventually get to 34, not at years end, but heading towards it on its way down.)

6- Wall street and major news outlets will continue to talk about ‘downturns’ and other things to make you feel rosey. That is mostly to suck the money out of those people who can still be gullible enough to fall for it. Remember who they work for. It ain't you.

7- After the Dems take the whitehouse the supports trying to hold up the economy will finally buckle. It's not personal, its politics. Perfect planning to ensure a Republican ticket win in 2012. Look for 2009 to be a bad year financially. Gotta love top level political strategy.

so far I have not been wrong yet, so please...if you are thinking of investing or buying right now think again. The chances of you losing money and acquiring huge debt far exceed the chance of gains.
Alternatively, all you lose by waiting, at most, is a little less equity or gains you could have gotten.

You risk losing it all when right now you are safe...DO NOT BUY A HOME NOW!

Last edited by Thatguywho; 12-23-2008 at 10:59 AM..
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Old 12-23-2008, 10:53 AM
 
28,383 posts, read 67,919,335 times
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Default Still makes sense to do some simple analysis...

Quote:
Originally Posted by J Arp View Post
But I just found a cute house in my price range...

So you are thinking the bottom is going to fall out of the market nationwide or just certain markets?
If you can rent a place for FAR LESS than you total monthly cost of owning then maybe it does not make sense to buy. I think MOST people are smart enough to figure out that over extending themselves to 'buy' a house with a plan to "get rich" by flipping it is not realistic anymore.

If you can get a nice rate on fixed term mortgage, and a good value on the property it might make sense.

Bottom falling out? Who really knows...
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Old 12-23-2008, 10:57 AM
 
242 posts, read 649,912 times
Reputation: 192
well....with the coming rental boom this year, people will get nutty and pick up those foreclosures quick.

When the rental bust happens shortly thereafter.....it will bottom out completely.

And anyone who did not buy a house and waited til late 2010 or 2011 or even later will have a lot less debt and probably be able to get a real cool mortgage when the new systems are introduced. I would say assumable mortgages are in our future.

Not waiting is just not a good way to go. There is no harm in waiting...


and, for today, that is the last of my public service annoucements. You have been alerted and warned...the rest of your future is in your hands all you first time home buyers.
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Old 12-23-2008, 11:05 AM
 
242 posts, read 649,912 times
Reputation: 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by J Arp View Post
But I just found a cute house in my price range...

So you are thinking the bottom is going to fall out of the market nationwide or just certain markets?
that cute home will be a lot cheaper in a few years. All you do by buying it now is over pay for it.

If you can handle the payments, get a fixed mortgage, and are planning on not moving for 10 years and do not care about the equity issue, then you could buy it and be happy.

but if you have to move you will not be able to rent it out or sell it without a loss each month or at sale.

Since you are likely putting money down, that is money down the drain. You could get it much cheaper later.
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