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IT will bust through 5000 on the way to a short stint at the real bottom of around 3000 by years end. Shortly after the REO boom/bust, rental boom/bust this year.
Then it will all settle and come back up to 500 pretty quick.
I would say the lowest would be 5k with government intervention into the market, but I will also say it will be higher if someone is "manipulating" the market numbers as well...
Remember Stocks were only created in order to benefit from future earnings via the dividend system. It has no real measure on a companies ownership or day to day once it is totalled.
Look at AIG .40 cents... Largest Insurance group in the world, and its @.40 cents. Stock price means very little in this environment.
Stocks are no longer long term investments, they have morphed into Vegas over the yrs. especially with day trading and legislation that made the rules funnel to them in regards to retirement and pension planning.
Using the Great Depression as a comparison, I predict a 2500 bottom and it should happen sometime in 2010 and then the market will begin a slow recovery. It will be DECADES before we can even start thinking about crossing 14,000 again. It might be as the Nasdaq bubble and never get there again.
Using the Great Depression as a comparison, I predict a 2500 bottom and it should happen sometime in 2010 and then the market will begin a slow recovery. It will be DECADES before we can even start thinking about crossing 14,000 again. It might be as the Nasdaq bubble and never get there again.
There was a time when stock prices reflected fundementals of a company that could be measured using financial ratios, market analysis, etc. The problem with the market now is that the value placed on companies is based on expectations of government actions, and not one the core worth of the business.
In other words, should I buy a green company with poor fundementals because I believe that the government will throw huge amounts of money at them or should I sell a company with good fundementals and sound management that is in an industry that will be discouraged by government (i.e., nuclear energy).
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