Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
This morning economists are saying the recession will end this year in 2H09.
So between June-December this year consumer spending and housing will pick up but employers will continue laying off well into 2010.
Kind of odd prediction. If layoffs will continue wouldn't people be more cautious about spending ?
There might be some sectors that are more stable with job security but there's others (tech) where the blood is flowing freely to the BRICs.
U.S. recession to end in H2 but unemployment to rise: survey - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090410/bs_nm/us_economy_survey_1 - broken link)
some of the gloom and doom people are not personally pessimistic. they just want this train stopped before the wreck, not after. of course housing will have a temporarily pick up as the government throws 8,000 dollars at each new buyer (also promising that these people will be in the home 3 years and how will they get the money back if they are not), as well as guaranteeing all bad loans. surely people realize that this is just a temporary shifting of money. the government becoming the buyer of treasury notes is also just a temporary fix. this is just another bubble inflation but it won't last long. for true growth of the economy, jobs have to be created and all of this worthless government spending is helping bankers the most and not the workers.
So between June-December this year consumer spending and housing will pick up but employers will continue laying off well into 2010.
Yeah...that's how it's worked in every recession up until now. None of this is new or unique to this downturn. Go back and look at 1981 - 1983.
Employment is ALWAYS behind the curve and a lagging indicator. The pace of layoffs should stabilize and begin to come down later in the year, but you won't see growth in employment until well into next year or later.
Actually it would be more accurate to say that "a few economists" are hoping for a quick, V shaped recovery. And they are privately employed, with an agenda - to restore consumer confidence.
No one mentioned a V shaped recovery. Growth may be flat or slight. I've heard and read just as many economists predicting an uptick in GDP this year as those who expect doom, gloom, and armageddon. You just choose to believe and give credence to the doom and ignore the more upside predictions. The truth is that there is a variance of opinion depending on how the data are interpreted.
Do you count Summers, Bernanke, and Geithner as "privately employed, with an agenda" or are they "publicly employed, with an agenda" in your book? You have to be a pretty cynical and skeptical kind of person to ascribe a conspiracy motive to people who don't buy into the depression hype.
Yeah...that's how it's worked in every recession up until now. None of this is new or unique to this downturn. Go back and look at 1981 - 1983.
Employment is ALWAYS behind the curve and a lagging indicator. The pace of layoffs should stabilize and begin to come down later in the year, but you won't see growth in employment until well into next year or later.
Back in the 80's though the jobs went away and then came back as companies ramped up production and returned to previous levels of service based on demand.
This time the jobs are going offshore to keep costs down. Those jobs will never come back.
I remember hearing this in the 80's too (I was an adult then), as the rust belt jobs in steel and other mfg were eliminated or moved to Mexico and other places. Those jobs may not have come back, but millions more did.
At that point, who predicted the technology revolution and the boom that we had in the 1990s? Would you rather be a steelworker or a software engineer? I'm not saying that some jobs aren't lost today that won't come back, but to make that statement as it applies to all jobs as if it's an absolute fact is a bit too much.
Who knows what the next boom will be driven by, and who knows what the next hot job will be. Building cars probably won't be it, but when you look at technology, biotech, so-called "green jobs," and healthcare, there is quite a bit of opportunity for us in the next 50 years.
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,298 posts, read 14,129,487 times
Reputation: 8104
Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311
.....Do you count Summers, Bernanke, and Geithner as "privately employed, with an agenda" or are they "publicly employed, with an agenda" in your book? You have to be a pretty cynical and skeptical kind of person to ascribe a conspiracy motive to people who don't buy into the depression hype.
Yes, they all have agendas. The ones with the fewest agendas are the tenured academic economists, since they keep their jobs and their income regardless of what they say.
Quote:
I remember hearing this in the 80's too (I was an adult then), as the rust belt jobs in steel and other mfg were eliminated or moved to Mexico and other places. Those jobs may not have come back, but millions more did.
At that point, who predicted the technology revolution and the boom that we had in the 1990s? Would you rather be a steelworker or a software engineer?
You meant to say that the choice was between steelworker and Starbucks barista, right?
Yes, they all have agendas. The ones with the fewest agendas are the tenured academic economists, since they keep their jobs and their income regardless of what they say.
And they all have opinions, many of them contradictory. As the saying goes, "put 5 economists in a room and you'll end up with 10 opinions."
Frankly, as with many debates in our society, I would tend to place less (not more) credence in the opinion of ivory tower academics, but that's just me.
Who knows what the next boom will be driven by, and who knows what the next hot job will be. Building cars probably won't be it, but when you look at technology, biotech, so-called "green jobs," and healthcare, there is quite a bit of opportunity for us in the next 50 years.
Most of technology and biotech is offshore. There's no way you could hire a PhD or BS engineer for $25-30K here in the US. India is a highly educated country and they have the language skills to talk to Americans/Europeans directly and this is where China lacks the skills.
You have to think there must have been a reason why the stimulus package removed the e-verify and requirement for workers to be US based.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
