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Old 04-09-2009, 10:31 AM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,844 posts, read 14,525,614 times
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We've heard all the doom, gloom, and apocalyptic predictions from many on this board and folks like Nouriel Roubini who see dark clouds in every silver lining. Things are bad right now...no two ways about it, but slowly and surely there are signs of improvement in some critical areas.

I'm sure some will quote the recent FOMC minutes or other sources of doom, but I just thought I would share a slightly more optimistic assessment, for whatever it's worth.

US Economy Could Rebound Much Sooner Than Expected - Economy * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
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Old 04-09-2009, 10:42 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,123,932 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311 View Post
We've heard all the doom, gloom, and apocalyptic predictions from many on this board and folks like Nouriel Roubini who see dark clouds in every silver lining. Things are bad right now...no two ways about it, but slowly and surely there are signs of improvement in some critical areas.

I'm sure some will quote the recent FOMC minutes or other sources of doom, but I just thought I would share a slightly more optimistic assessment, for whatever it's worth.

US Economy Could Rebound Much Sooner Than Expected - Economy * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
Yeh, CNBC, now there is a credible source of truthful information.
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Old 04-09-2009, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,844 posts, read 14,525,614 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Yeh, CNBC, now there is a credible source of truthful information.
So there you go...talk down the source instead of the content. The story reports about economists that have been reviewing the data and trends, and are saying that the dire predictions and doom scenarios probably aren't correct. The story is what these economists are saying...not the source.

Why is it you people give credence to any opinion that says the world is ending, but anyone who looks at the data and says..."maybe the dire predictions aren't really warranted"... gets disdain? Why do you pick any obscure reference that shows negative news and treat it as gospel, but any less pessimistic news is dismissed out of hand?

I just don't get this need by some to hope for the worst.
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Old 04-09-2009, 10:58 AM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,305 posts, read 11,820,037 times
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Quote:
“The velocity of downturn is lessening," says John J Castellani
Well, that says it all. It's still going downhill, but not as much in a few indicators as some economists had predicted.

And let's not even look at the global picture, we're an island unto ourselves.
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Old 04-09-2009, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,844 posts, read 14,525,614 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woof View Post
It's still going downhill, but not as much in a few indicators as some economists had predicted.
And the first step to a bottom is what? Oh...sorry...the world is ending.
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Old 04-09-2009, 12:25 PM
 
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I would be say that is an optimistic viewpoint but its looking at the "smaller picture"... on a more "bigger picture", it still stinks... I know that "some" economists (and who isn't these days), say that we will have a turnaround later this year (some think even later next year)... but why? I would like these economists to back up with REASONS, not just because "X" went up and "Y" went down, its going to be good... WHY is "X" going up and "Y" going down... they never really say WHY and why did "WHY" happen in the first place? Saying that Visa stock went up points to economic recovery is slightly retarded without exploring why the Visa stock went up... yes, the stock market is up from its lows, yes, unemployment is "slowing", and yes, Americans are spending on houses, etc... but... why? Stock market is a lot cheaper than it was before buying $2 stocks is different than buying $80 stocks considering your wage is the same.... Houses are a lot cheaper than it was 5-6 years ago and your wage has probably increased since then... but is that truly "recovery"? To me, recovery is IF $2 stocks go back to $80 in a SHORT amount of time (it ain't happening).... To me, recovery is a second long-lasting housing boom (that ain't happening either)... so then there is unemployment... less people are getting laid off... what does that mean? Unemployment will accelerate and decelerate based on a corporation's bottom line... this month, maybe the bottom line wasn't so bad, it doesn't portend what is going to happen next month... so yes, its nice to say this shirt is nice by staring at the white spot and ignoring all the markers that is scribbled all over it... the "big picture" isn't as rosy... and yes, people aren't paying attention to the "big picture", they'll throw money in at the first sign of hope... its often called a "sucker's rally" causes suckers look at the "small picture"... and when the "small picture" doesn't last long, they whine... until the next "small picture"... suckers will be suckers...
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Old 04-09-2009, 12:38 PM
 
686 posts, read 1,478,002 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
I would be say that is an optimistic viewpoint but its looking at the "smaller picture"... on a more "bigger picture", it still stinks... I know that "some" economists (and who isn't these days), say that we will have a turnaround later this year (some think even later next year)... but why? I would like these economists to back up with REASONS, not just because "X" went up and "Y" went down, its going to be good... WHY is "X" going up and "Y" going down... they never really say WHY and why did "WHY" happen in the first place? Saying that Visa stock went up points to economic recovery is slightly retarded without exploring why the Visa stock went up... yes, the stock market is up from its lows, yes, unemployment is "slowing", and yes, Americans are spending on houses, etc... but... why? Stock market is a lot cheaper than it was before buying $2 stocks is different than buying $80 stocks considering your wage is the same.... Houses are a lot cheaper than it was 5-6 years ago and your wage has probably increased since then... but is that truly "recovery"? To me, recovery is IF $2 stocks go back to $80 in a SHORT amount of time (it ain't happening).... To me, recovery is a second long-lasting housing boom (that ain't happening either)... so then there is unemployment... less people are getting laid off... what does that mean? Unemployment will accelerate and decelerate based on a corporation's bottom line... this month, maybe the bottom line wasn't so bad, it doesn't portend what is going to happen next month... so yes, its nice to say this shirt is nice by staring at the white spot and ignoring all the markers that is scribbled all over it... the "big picture" isn't as rosy... and yes, people aren't paying attention to the "big picture", they'll throw money in at the first sign of hope... its often called a "sucker's rally" causes suckers look at the "small picture"... and when the "small picture" doesn't last long, they whine... until the next "small picture"... suckers will be suckers...


I couldn't have said it better.
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Old 04-09-2009, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 2,899,953 times
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I see mix signs of both a potential softening of the drop and the potential for some sort of economic recovery.

Some hopeful signs/opportunities:

- Drop in cost of living from mass re-financing, lower home prices, lower rents, lower consumables goods (vehicles, durable goods costs, etc.) freeing up disposable incomes
- Increase in the monetary supply (Fed repurchasing treasuries)
- Large re-tooling and re-education and community college enrollment
- Increase in savings rate
- Increase in Credit availability (hopefully funneling towards production vs. consumption)
- Drop in Current Account Deficit (trade gap narrowing - drop in imports, neutral exports)
- New banking regulations and potential regulations of hedge funds and derivatives
- Private businesses and investors starting to see opportunities in the market place with the contraction in prices - potential new customers with impaired credit
- Stimulus funding both domestic and global hitting markets in the second half

Some not so hopeful signs:
- Continued stream of layoffs
- Continued Pay cuts, furloughs, under employment
- Continued increase in foreclosures and other defaults
- Global economic turmoil and stagnant exports

We're at a flux, and I think we're closing in more towards an inflection point than not. A mix between a concentration of reducing costs for the consumer (less reliance on domestic consumption), improving labor capital (education/re-training), and exploration of export markets, conservation, and efficiency (reduce import dependency).

I don't consider a "recovery" a move back towards the reckless consumerism of the years past or the outrageous pumping of the stock market. IMO, a move towards recovery is when we find a meaningful, sustainable economic growth rate that provides a reasonable natural unemployment rate. Ie, stable price levels, stable incomes, stable and sustainable profit rates, leverage ratios, and stable unemployment rates = recovery in my book.

-chuck22b

Last edited by chuck22b; 04-09-2009 at 12:57 PM..
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Old 04-09-2009, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,844 posts, read 14,525,614 times
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So recovery means that stocks go back to their highs in a "short amount of time" (whatever that means), and home prices recover to their boom highs? To you that's the only evidence that the world isn't ending and recovery is possible? Am I getting you correctly?

So the general and broad rally in the market is just a "sucker's rally" and the increases in consumer spending, decreases in wholesale inventories, slight decrease in trade deficit, upsloping yield curve and better than expected earnings at Wells Fargo/Wachovia and the forecasts of better earnings at JPMC and BAC, movement in the housing market for new and existing homes, record mortgage refinancing, record low mortgage rates, fiscal stimulus (such as it is), etc. means nothing?

Again, I'm not saying (and neither was that article) that the recession has ended and life is rosey again. It's just making the point that many people have been making lately, that there is news coming out to start to show that the pace of decline is getting slower, and many economists who are more knowledgeable than you or me feel these are signs that a turnaround may be coming sooner than the worst case scenarios being thrown around. Not tomorrow, but not 2 years from now.

The bottom line is that no one really knows, and there are different interpretations of the same data. There were threads here recently based on interviews with a so-called expert who made the guarantee when the Dow was at its lows that it would hit 4,000 before it ever saw 8,000 again. Well 3 weeks after his doom and gloom prediction based on wll his charts and knowledge, the Dow hit 8,000.
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Old 04-09-2009, 01:23 PM
 
22,770 posts, read 25,213,574 times
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They point to:
-a significant easing of the credit crunch
-improvement in consumer spending—including better auto sales
-a potential bottom in housing
-a less-grim jobs picture
-expectations that the government's massive stimulus spending could start boosting economic growth almost immediately.

I'm just not buying what they're selling here. "Nobody really knows what will happen, so therefore we should be extremely optimistic" does not sound like much of a plan. Plus, they clearly have a different idea of recovery than I do. "Losing jobs at a decelerating pace" is not indicative of a recovery. "Improvement in consumer spending" thanks to credit markets just leads to an increased trade deficit, right? And a "potential bottom" in the housing market when there's been a moratorium on foreclosures, and there are mountains of inventory? Please.

Last edited by le roi; 04-09-2009 at 01:32 PM..
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