U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-16-2009, 05:03 AM
 
Location: Tennessee/Michigan
27,994 posts, read 46,352,092 times
Reputation: 19398

Advertisements

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key index of prices paid by consumers fell at the sharpest rate since August 1955 due to historically low energy prices, the government said Friday.

Consumer prices fall 0.7% year-over-year - May. 15, 2009
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-16-2009, 06:44 AM
 
28,383 posts, read 67,903,744 times
Reputation: 18188
SWEET HEAVENS ABOVE, -.7% whatever will I do with the WINDFALL!!! I shall surely use it to be SEED CORN for the coming famine, or at least stock up on Butch Wax so I can recreate the hairstyle I shared with Ward Cleaver in 1955.

btw What the heck is the excuse the f'in gasoline refiners / sellers have THIS TIME for the recent spike in oil prices? I mean the economy still SUCKS, so there is no demand, their is no new threat to the oil producing regions, I think after 20 years or what ever of seasonal oxygenated fuels they'd kind figure the f'in timing of the switch over, and I am so PISSED I might just start sabotaging their damned pumps and/or "instant change" dial a price boards -- Fake Hacking Gas - Video
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-16-2009, 09:13 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,093 posts, read 69,870,497 times
Reputation: 27519
OPEC cut back production chet to get prices to rise.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-16-2009, 02:19 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,476 posts, read 16,966,907 times
Reputation: 4304
Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
SWEET HEAVENS ABOVE, -.7% whatever will I do with the WINDFALL!!! I shall surely use it to be SEED CORN for the coming famine, or at least stock up on Butch Wax so I can recreate the hairstyle I shared with Ward Cleaver in 1955.
Its good that the people actually in power don't have this sort of attitude. This is just a sign that deflation is becoming embedded, if nothing is done then we could see a prolonged depression.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-16-2009, 02:40 PM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,844 posts, read 14,514,272 times
Reputation: 3484
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
if nothing is done then we could see a prolonged depression.
Holy cow....have you been under a rock for the last 6 months? Have you not been following the monetary actions of the Fed? The humungous fiscal orgy by Congress? That's "what's been done" so your comments are really about 6 months too late. Sorry, Depression 2.0 has been called off....you didn't get the memo?

Deflation was a risk, but I don't think any serious economist now believes it's still a serious threat....more the opposite in the medium to long term. Inflation or stagflation are the real risks.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-16-2009, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,476 posts, read 16,966,907 times
Reputation: 4304
Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311 View Post
Holy cow....have you been under a rock for the last 6 months? Have you not been following the monetary actions of the Fed? The humungous fiscal orgy by Congress? That's "what's been done" so your comments are really about 6 months too late. Sorry, Depression 2.0 has been called off....you didn't get the memo?
You mean the media is not talking about it anymore? Its not called off as we are still seeing deflation.

Regardless, I'm perfectly aware of what the government and FED are doing. The question is whether it is enough to kill deflation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311 View Post
Deflation was a risk, but I don't think any serious economist now believes it's still a serious threat....more the opposite in the medium to long term.
Then you need to read more. There are a number of well know economists that still worry about deflation. The primary worry is and always has been that the US will see a Japanese like "lost decade" rather than Great Depression 2.0. The great depression talk is media mania. This threat has not gone away, in fact in some sense its greater today than it was 1 year ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311 View Post
Inflation or stagflation are the real risks.
Inflation in the way you are speaking of it is nowhere to be found.

Sort of hard to have inflation when you have massive overcapacity throughout the economy.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-17-2009, 07:34 AM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,844 posts, read 14,514,272 times
Reputation: 3484
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
You mean the media is not talking about it anymore? Its not called off as we are still seeing deflation.

Regardless, I'm perfectly aware of what the government and FED are doing. The question is whether it is enough to kill deflation.


Then you need to read more. There are a number of well know economists that still worry about deflation. The primary worry is and always has been that the US will see a Japanese like "lost decade" rather than Great Depression 2.0. The great depression talk is media mania. This threat has not gone away, in fact in some sense its greater today than it was 1 year ago.


Inflation in the way you are speaking of it is nowhere to be found.

Sort of hard to have inflation when you have massive overcapacity throughout the economy.
I do read...quite a lot. The media report the statistics, metrics, opinions of mainstream economists, and the predictions of the government. Very little of it supports your mantra.

You can always find someone like Roubini who has been saying the sky is falling for years. Congrats...he called this recession, but his prognostications are very close to a "broken clock is right at least twice a day." I even heard one guy on a TV business show actually say in all seriousness that he was looking for the Dow to drop to 1,000. That's just looney.

Things are not great right now...no doubt. However, the trend at this point is moving away from "Depression 2.0" and we're moving toward a bottom in most of the measures. Look at consumer confidence which is moving up and the rate of layoffs is starting to reduce and bottom. CPI was actually up slightly in April before seasonal adjustment (+0.2%) and flat after adjustment. Food and certain other prices have risen much more sharply, with food posting a 3.3% increase in April. PPI is slightly up as well by 0.3%.

Bottom line is that despite this huge desire by many for a replay of the 1930's, it's not happening. What I have read is more experts are fearful of a replay of the 1970s, where GDP growth was low or negative, and energy prices and core inflation were high, with CPI growing by single or double digits annually. The Fed will have to be very quick and timely to raise rates and unwind their programs.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-17-2009, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,476 posts, read 16,966,907 times
Reputation: 4304
Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311 View Post
I do read...quite a lot. The media report the statistics, metrics, opinions of mainstream economists, and the predictions of the government. Very little of it supports your mantra.
The media reports nothing of importance. My mantra? There are a lot of economists that are worried about Japanese style deflation. If you really want links I can provide them, but it can all easily be found on google.

Ironically, the economists that get most airtime are the ones that are worried about such....

How about this, why don't you post some articles from well respected economists that are not worried about deflation anymore?

Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311 View Post
Things are not great right now...no doubt. However, the trend at this point is moving away from "Depression 2.0" and we're moving toward a bottom in most of the measures.
"Depression 2.0" was a media creation, now they are talking about "Green shouts". Its all nonsense. The primary concern among economists has been Japanese style deflation, which is rather different that what the US experienced in the 1930's. The measures starting to moderate does not exclude the Japanese like situation, rather its exactly what you'd expect.

If we repeat the Japanese experience it will mean a slow rate of deflation both in consumer prices and assets over many years.

Of course the media does not talk about this, it won't attract readers. The vast majority have no idea what happened in Japan after their massive asset bubble collapsed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311 View Post
Bottom line is that despite this huge desire by many for a replay of the 1930's, it's not happening.
I don't know who is desiring that. And I don't even know of a single economist that thought that was the most likely outcome. Even Roubini.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-18-2009, 12:11 PM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,844 posts, read 14,514,272 times
Reputation: 3484
So here is the set of headlines today...one day does not a trend or a recovery make, but this is how the news has been coming for the last month or so. Don't see much of a trend toward massive deflation. Sorry to be the anti-bear, but I think some folks just can't see the silver lining for all the clouds.

Market Dispatches - MSN Money
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-18-2009, 01:22 PM
 
22,770 posts, read 25,182,020 times
Reputation: 14506
Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311 View Post
Deflation was a risk, but I don't think any serious economist now believes it's still a serious threat....more the opposite in the medium to long term. Inflation or stagflation are the real risks.
I listen to economists - serious ones - every day who think that deflation is "the real problem."

I don't take on face value that they are correct, but I don't understand your attempts to name-call and attack them personally.

Last edited by le roi; 05-18-2009 at 01:34 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top