U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-16-2009, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
1,671 posts, read 2,079,587 times
Reputation: 3266

Advertisements

Best YouTube Video I have ever seen. This guy has the state of the economy pretty much spot on, mixed with a healthy dose of redneck attitude.

OFFICE WARNING: This contains a substantial amount of profanity. Do not listen anywhere where it will be within earhsot of colleagues, bosses, etc. Listen through headphones or when you get home.


YouTube - what *****ing recovery
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-16-2009, 12:42 PM
 
28,384 posts, read 67,936,355 times
Reputation: 18189
Fantasy v Reality

Article - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090616-710885.html - broken link)
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-16-2009, 12:49 PM
 
22,770 posts, read 25,192,517 times
Reputation: 14506
This guy is a carbon copy of the people I used to drink beer with, in the middle of cotton fields, in high school.

He's an idiot, though. He's buying silver, I assume as an inflation hedge - while at the same time describing how "Thar ain't gon' be no recovery!" and rattling off a list of deflationary indicators (declining workweeks, declining wages, etc) and data points related to our deleveraging economy. He's got no idea.

Awesome jorts, btw.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-16-2009, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
1,671 posts, read 2,079,587 times
Reputation: 3266
Ok. Forget this guys delivery and the turning of Chinese goods into piñatas for a second and explain to us WHERE the "recovery" is. Maybe his tone was a little off kilter. But what he's actually SAYING I think is pretty spot on. Forget the charts, graphs, macros, and "rate of decline slowing" and all of that other Ivory Tower BS and tell us where the REAL WORLD recovery is and how we are going to get there.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-16-2009, 12:57 PM
 
22,770 posts, read 25,192,517 times
Reputation: 14506
Quote:
Originally Posted by Des-Lab View Post
Ok. Forget this guys delivery and the turning of Chinese goods into piñatas for a second and explain to us WHERE the "recovery" is.
What recovery are you talking about? Stock markets, housing markets, labor markets, commodity markets? I think each one of them tells a different story.

And to be honest I don't really understand what the word "recovery" really means. Recovery to what?

Quote:
Maybe his tone was a little off kilter. But what he's actually SAYING I think is pretty spot on. Forget the charts, graphs, macros, and "rate of decline slowing" and all of that other Ivory Tower BS and tell us where the REAL WORLD recovery is and how we are going to get there.
If he's spot on, then why is he buying silver when he's expecting deflation?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-16-2009, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
1,671 posts, read 2,079,587 times
Reputation: 3266
Because he's not the idot that some of you say he is. It's called seeing what's coming and taking due diligence to prepare for it while simultaneously calling the present mess for what it is. What's wrong with that? Deflation might be short term when all signs point to major inflation down the road. To use an analogy, think of the proverbial ocean waterline receding by a few hundred feet just before the several thousand foot tsunami comes rolling in.

What recovery?

That's the whole point exactly. There ISN'T one, despite what the Bull Market cheerleaders at MSN and CNBC would have us think. Basically what they are saying is that because things are slowing down (i.e. not as bad) because *only* 300k people lost their jobs as opposed to 600k is tantamount to saying that a persons diabetes isn't *as bad* as previously thought because the doctors need to amputate *only* one leg as opposed to both.

From a pure statisticians perspective, it's true and looks fantastic. But from the eyes of the folks like you and me who don't live in fantasyland, the numbers and facts still just don't add up to any sort of meaningful recovery. And I think that's the point of the man in the video.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-16-2009, 01:09 PM
 
10,706 posts, read 20,126,250 times
Reputation: 9859
That's a pretty strong Chinese TV
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-16-2009, 01:55 PM
 
Location: Rockland County New York
2,984 posts, read 5,122,987 times
Reputation: 1285
He may seem like one crazy redneck but his argument has a lot of good points.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-17-2009, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Parker, CO
1,036 posts, read 2,640,626 times
Reputation: 1630
Quote:
Originally Posted by Des-Lab View Post
What recovery?

That's the whole point exactly. There ISN'T one, despite what the Bull Market cheerleaders at MSN and CNBC would have us think. Basically what they are saying is that because things are slowing down (i.e. not as bad) because *only* 300k people lost their jobs as opposed to 600k is tantamount to saying that a persons diabetes isn't *as bad* as previously thought because the doctors need to amputate *only* one leg as opposed to both.

From a pure statisticians perspective, it's true and looks fantastic. But from the eyes of the folks like you and me who don't live in fantasyland, the numbers and facts still just don't add up to any sort of meaningful recovery. And I think that's the point of the man in the video.
Unfortunately, economic recoveries don't occur overnight. Sadly, our microwave-fast American society has become so accustomed to instant gratification, and have forgotten how to wait for things. Such is the case with this recession: people want it to end NOW. Realistically, things take time.

If unemployment numbers are "less bad" than they were, that means that the severity of the recession is easing. You can't expect for lay-offs to instantly drop from 600,000 a week to 0. Call me crazy, but if the numbers have decreased by half then I would call that a step in the right direction.

Be patient.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-17-2009, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
7,091 posts, read 10,488,886 times
Reputation: 4104
You hear this every time a recession occurs, and every time it's wrong...from the S&L scandals, through the tech bust just in my lifetime and more so before. If he doesn't expect a recovery he should be buying a place where he can make his own food and a rifle, not buying silver in the market to hedge in the same place that he expects to go completely bust.

Look at the last recession, there were deep problems in the decline from 2001 to 2003 before a good recovery indicators were pushing people to see the recovery. It takes time even to show things recovering, it won't happen over night, even with a new president you can't look 100 days in and scream "It's not hunky dory yet we are completely screwed now!".

When things recover precious metals are going to go in the crapper, I wonder if he is planning for that eventuality.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top