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I read an article that stated there are planted trolls on many of the nation's most popular boards. Many of them work for political organizations which supports the current administration. Their purpose is to attack people’s credibility as well as cover up or deny what is really going on the economy and world affairs. It seems as if big brother is watching over us.
These are not really that consistent with each other.
An unemployment rate of 15% is not consistent with high inflation. High unemployment is deflationary, not inflationary. High unemployment would also reduce oil consumption. Considering most of the global is in a recession, oil at $130/barrel is extremely unlikely. Although, there could be another speculative bubble in oil. But like the previous one, it would not last that long.
I think its very unlikely that the Republican party wins anything, the party is collapsing.
GM is now bankrupt, nobody is under the impression they are going to be making a profit anytime soon (as is usually the case when a company goes....ahem...bankrupt).
Regarding China, the US dollar has already declined in value, the Chinese are still net purchases of US debt. The people that talk about the Chinese selling US debt don't seem to understand why the Chinese buy it in the first place. China can't stop buying US debt without strengthening their currency, but this would kill their export economy. China is in no position to make a big shift in its dollar policy and there is no evidence that they have made such a shift, despite people talking about it for the last 2-3 years.
The mere fact that you mention the Republican Party is fracturing says you are a hard line democrat. You represent only one theory of economic. It does not happen to be mine. Any way lets look at this so called Energy Bill. If passed by Capital Hill it will push the price of energy to record levels. Companies will be forced to increase their prices. Many people will not be able to buy their products and their sales will suffer. Companies will begin to lay off people as a means of staying in business due to falling sales. You see it’s called the domino effect. Some thing you simply do not understand. I stand by predications.
"Many people that I know", you actually take this as a serious data point? The people that you know make up a rather small percentage of the population, not to mention "the people that I know" is not a random sample to began with. .
It's true that I know relatively few people, but the ones that I know are from the west to the east coast and many in between and they have the same experiences. A random sample, but the same experience is indisputable.
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Originally Posted by user_id
Regardless, jobs vanish, industries contract, etc this is all part of a normal economy. But its a rather easy matter to show that the people leaving the computer/IT industry after the bubble were not forced into real estate, finance etc. In 1999 there were 2.6 million workers in computer/IT, etc now there are 3.3 million. Even in 2003 a bit after the tech-bubble completely collapsed, there were 2.8 million. Employment in the industry did not collapse, it merely slowed its growth. Interestingly even the wages went up! In 1999 the median wage was $54k, in 2008 it was $72k. What you are stating is just a common myth, the data tells a much different story.
What is amazing about some of you guys is that what you believe is so inconsistent with the actual facts. You don't even bother yourself with them, you just talk about "the guy I know", etc.
Common myth, eh? My experience and that of my peers is hardly a myth. The numbers you put out there do not separate all the H-1B visa holders, easily over 1 million workers, that displaced American workers, but are counted as American jobs.
Now the "stats" that you are so quickly to throw out there, I would say they are a myth.
Are these the same "stats" that McCain was looking at when he said the most famous phrase of his candidacy, "the fundamentals of our economy are strong"?
The "leading economists" must have also been looking at these "stats", because if they had actually been in the same place I was they would have noticed when it started instead of a year later when it was too late to do anything about it.
The mere fact that you mention the Republican Party is fracturing says you are a hard line democrat.
So stating the obvious means I'm a democrat? Its rather obvious that the Republican party is falling apart. You don't need to be a democrat to see that.
It's true that I know relatively few people, but the ones that I know are from the west to the east coast and many in between and they have the same experiences.
The people you know are not a random sample, furthermore when people want to believe something they have the tendency to block out those cases that are inconsistent with their belief. Personal experience is not evidence, there is tons of economic data that is collected on labor, etc.
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Originally Posted by RedNC
Common myth, eh? My experience and that of my peers is hardly a myth.
Your experience says little about the general picture, perhaps you and your peers just were not any good?
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Originally Posted by RedNC
The numbers you put out there do not separate all the H-1B visa holders, easily over 1 million workers....
Again, you ignore the facts. There is a congressional limit on the number of H1B visas that can be issued each year, around 100k are issued each year. There may be close to 1 million H1B workers in the entire labor market, but only a fraction of that is from technology. Also, H1B visas have to be approved and they are only approved in areas where there is a shortage, this often includes advanced research and things of that nature. Company will have a real hard time trying to get a H1B visa for say a standard programming job.
Anyhow, employment grew in technology whether you include H1B or not. It grew by 500,000 from 1999 to 2008, where as H1B growth in that period is less!
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Originally Posted by RedNC
Now the "stats" that you are so quickly to throw out there, I would say they are a myth.
They are? They are straight from the department of labor. Are you suggesting that all the department of labor statistics are fake?
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Originally Posted by RedNC
Are these the same "stats" that McCain was looking at when he said the most famous phrase of his candidacy, "the fundamentals of our economy are strong"?
Huh? McCain was looking at technology labor statistics when he said that?
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Originally Posted by RedNC
The "leading economists" must have also been looking at these "stats", because if they had actually been in the same place I was they would have noticed when it started instead of a year later when it was too late to do anything about it.
What started? Many of the leading economists spoke out against the growing credit bubble years before it collapsed. Note, though, only relatively few economists work on relevant macroeconomics. Economics is a big field and most are not working on macroeconomics.
Anyhow, this is another myth though. That some how the economists did not predict any of this... But its hogwash, people just are not able to distinguish between an actual economist and a paid shill on TV. Economists rarely go on TV so they are out of sight and out of mind.
It would perhaps be useful if you actually read history? During the panic of 1907 the treasury heavily supported the banking system along with J.P. Morgan. The panic 1907 almost took down the system and was seen as evidence for the need for a central bank, the FED was created soon after. During the depression the FED supported the markets in a number of ways and a number of problems were created to "bailout" home owners, framers, etc. Some of these programs still exist today (e.g., FHA). During the savings and loan crisis in the 1980's the banking system was bailed out by the FED and treasury. As a result of the economic events in the 70's and 80's the Continental bank/trust company, New York City, Chrysler, Lockheed, Franklin National bank were bailed out. The price tag for the savings and loan crisis was $300 billion, or $520 billion in today's dollars.
Perhaps you should do some reading on US financial history? Although, dry this book is excellent:
Wiley::Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 5th Edition (http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471467146.html - broken link)
Anyhow, what is going on today is not much different than what has occurred in other financial crises.
The US is not even close to a socialist country, suggesting that Obama in a matter of a few months has made the US a socialist nation is just inane. Obama is not a socialist, his plans far health care are rather far from a socialized system of medicine. What people are stick of is getting ripped off by insurance companies and not having health care.
Not only do you not know history, you don't even remember events 6 months ago! It was Bush and friends that created TARP, not Obama.
In terms of fiscal conservativism, the Republican party has no leg to stand on. They funded a war with deficits.... But this is not the political forum, so I'll stop there.
Personal experience is not evidence, there is tons of economic data that is collected on labor, etc. .
Are you on crack? For someone who claims to have "multiple degrees" you sure make some stupid statements.
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Originally Posted by user_id
Your experience says little about the general picture, perhaps you and your peers just were not any good?
Not any good? Well we were good enough to build and maintain it until the company decided to move it to Ireland.
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Originally Posted by user_id
Again, you ignore the facts. There is a congressional limit on the number of H1B visas that can be issued each year, around 100k are issued each year. There may be close to 1 million H1B workers in the entire labor market, but only a fraction of that is from technology. Also, H1B visas have to be approved and they are only approved in areas where there is a shortage, this often includes advanced research and things of that nature. Company will have a real hard time trying to get a H1B visa for say a standard programming job.
Anyhow, employment grew in technology whether you include H1B or not. It grew by 500,000 from 1999 to 2008, where as H1B growth in that period is less!
They are? They are straight from the department of labor. Are you suggesting that all the department of labor statistics are fake?
Your statistics are as skewed as you logic. If they are so accurate then why do they always revise them after they are posted? So yes, I don't believe the department of labor statistics.
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Originally Posted by user_id
Huh? McCain was looking at technology labor statistics when he said that?
No $h!t!!! How well did that work for him? He believed the same crap that you are spewing, when the majority of Americans knew better.
The bill had hundreds of sponsors, many of which were Republican.
Bush signed it into law and it was developed with the treasury department headed by Bush's pals. You do know that a president can veto legislation right?
Are you on crack? For someone who claims to have "multiple degrees" you sure make some stupid statements.
Its a matter of basic logic that you can't (logically) move from your personal experience to a general claim. Your personal experience is not a random sample, its far too small of a sample and people are inherently subjective. But you are going to convince yourself of whatever you need to convince yourself of.
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Originally Posted by RedNC
Not any good? Well we were good enough to build and maintain it until the company decided to move it to Ireland.
Sure, you guys may have just not been that good. I'm not suggesting that this is indeed the case, I don't know you. Companies go out of business, reduce employment, offshore, etc all the time. Losing a job does not mean you're bad, not being able to get another job after losing a job in tech is usually a indication of one or two things 1.) Your skills are outdated, 2.) you are not any good. The job market in tech has not declined, rather its been growing slowly since the tech bubble (of course, no where near the growth in the 90's).
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedNC
Your statistics are as skewed as you logic. If they are so accurate then why do they always revise them after they are posted? So yes, I don't believe the department of labor statistics.
They are not my statistics, they are the department of labor statistics. Why do you they revise them, are you serious? Because the initial numbers are estimates and they revise them once all the information comes in. They don't revise numbers from years ago, just recently released initial figures. When the numbers are up for revision there is a clear distinction between the initial figures and those that have been revised with complete data. Once all the data is in there is no revision.
If they are just faking the numbers why even bother revising them?
Anyhow, basically, you will reject the accuracy of any numbers that conflict with your own half-baked world view which you found on your rather limited personal experience. Why even debate? You won't even in principle change your position regardless of the facts. Good luck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedNC
No $h!t!!! How well did that work for him? He believed the same crap that you are spewing, when the majority of Americans knew better.
C'mon, McCain did not look at labor statistics for technology and then conclude "Hey, the economy is strong". That is just silly. I really have no idea why McCain said that, it probably had more to do with campaign rhetoric than anything else.
Regardless, you are pretending as if all the measure of the economy where rosy when he stated that, but they were not, rather the opposite. Nobody looking at the data would say "the economy is strong" in late 2008, after all just before that congress was working on a massive bailout for the financial system! In the summer of 2007, the ball dropped. The data started to turn sour in 2006.
Your experience says little about the general picture, perhaps you and your peers just were not any good?
I have to say I like reading your posts.
But this one thing I really don't agree with. Do you really feel and believe that all the people displaced by offshoring were just no good at what they did? And people from other countries are so much better?
Personally I think humans in general have equal capabilities no matter what country they are from.
The other thing is, people who come from these countries like India and are here, they themselves are getting displaced by offshoring as well!
I mean then what, the Indians who live here in America are less smart than the Indians who reside in India?
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