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China has little in the way of oil reserves and the United States has burned through 70% of it's supply. Of the 20 largest oil producing nations in the world 50% are in decline and most of the large producers (Saudi Arabia, Iran and others) are increasing using their supply for domestic purposes. These few nations contain almost all of the mega fields on the plants. These mega fields supply 50% of the world's oil, but make up only .03% of all fields and most of them are in decline. We are using 5 barrels of oil up for every one we discover. In other words we are headed for a major showdown with China, and others, over this declining resource. There is no substitute for oil which will cover its massive cheap and effective use. Expect conflict in the next few decades with China or whoever gets in our way. Americans will demand that their standard of living not change, even if it means going to war to continue the supply of cheap oil.
This is why America needs/needed to move off of oil onto something else or a combination of things. We've been running out of oil for a long time and China didn't get big over night. They have been growing their economy for decades. I mean we borrow money from THEM. Why haven't we been strategically trying to move off oil all this time?
GM and the other US auto makers kept keeping us addicted to the oil with the SUV's. Yes there was a demand for them but they too also knew oil would not keep up with the demands. They could have very well started building hybrid SUV's years ago when everyone had money.
China has nothing to lose and everything to gain. As well as the other countries that want to do business with China b/c China does no impose policy on other countries (they could care less about other as long as they get their oil).
We can't blame China for anything we can only blame ourselves from not learning from lessons of the past 1970's oil embargo.
Kind of sounds like spoiled brats who are going to break everyone else toys unless the US gets it way?
Would not be easier for US to grow up a little and move off of Oil?
It sounds harsh, but it is true. Look how people freaked out when gas hit $4.00 a gallon. At $7 or $8 a gallon anything is possible. Oil is built into almost everything in one way or another. You name it - transportation, food, plastics, things all around us. As the price increases it causes inflation on ,again, everything. Our standard of living is based on cheap oil.
It sounds nice to get off oil, but it's not that easy. Were fed this green fantasy, that we can make this easy transition to renewable energy and that the transition will be smooth and we will continue business as usual. I wish it was this easy.
In the near future we are going to be in tough competition for oil and it may get ugly. Our economy as it stands now can't handle high oil prices. It puts everything into chaos. Tough times may be ahead. I hope I'm wrong, but the facts point otherwise.
obviously every country still wants oil because of the cost. what i don't understand is why our politicians have blocked oil exploration for years. the canadians have come a long way with oil shale and i heard that we have plenty of that. we should be investing in those technologies. i am beginning to think that the green fantasy is to power us down and power china up, since they are the "emerging" nation.
China's economy is a disaster. Their average salary is so low that the workers can barely afford their own products. Rampant corruption, environmental issues and food shortages mean they are never going to reach the level that the US was at in the previous century. Oil will never run out but it gets harder and harder to get. There are ways to cut oil use and new energy sources to use but little effort has gone into the research and development needed. Instead the Wall Street crooks created bubble after bubble. The US would be number 1 again if things like the Federal Reserve were abolished and Congress was rescued from the lawyer$. Oil can be produced directly from solar energy and through algae, energy can be extracted from garbage and nuclear is a great transition to stop wasting coal to generate electricity, a process far less efficient than burning oil for transportation. Perhaps we can harness all the hot air from the political elite to reduce the need for heating oil this winter?
obviously every country still wants oil because of the cost. what i don't understand is why our politicians have blocked oil exploration for years. the canadians have come a long way with oil shale and i heard that we have plenty of that. we should be investing in those technologies. i am beginning to think that the green fantasy is to power us down and power china up, since they are the "emerging" nation.
tallrick is right about oil never running out, but that is not the problem. Getting cheap available oil is the problem. Shale is very expensive and energy intense. It's not easy to get like sweet Texas crude or Saudi oil. The same goes for the tar sands in Alberta. Very dirty and energy intense. Tar sands require a great deal of natural gas and water. Canada can max out at 2 million barrels per day on the tar sands. The world uses around 82 million barrels per day. Drilling off the coast will not help for 10 years or so, even then the supply will not cover our demand. Also, much of the oil off the Atlantic shelf is very deep and difficult to obtain. Billion dollar rigs which need to drill 5 miles deep into the ocean. Not as easy as it sounds and very expensive. The easy oil throughout the world is vanishing.
Your right about the green fantasy to power down. I think cap and trade spells this out. Obama and friends are living a green fantasy and don't want to lay out the facts. We are decades away from their green fantasy.
China's economy is a disaster. Their average salary is so low that the workers can barely afford their own products. Rampant corruption, environmental issues and food shortages mean they are never going to reach the level that the US was at in the previous century. Oil will never run out but it gets harder and harder to get. There are ways to cut oil use and new energy sources to use but little effort has gone into the research and development needed. Instead the Wall Street crooks created bubble after bubble. The US would be number 1 again if things like the Federal Reserve were abolished and Congress was rescued from the lawyer$. Oil can be produced directly from solar energy and through algae, energy can be extracted from garbage and nuclear is a great transition to stop wasting coal to generate electricity, a process far less efficient than burning oil for transportation. Perhaps we can harness all the hot air from the political elite to reduce the need for heating oil this winter?
Finally, someone who understands the economics here. It's not an issue of getting off oil or remaining addicted to oil - as if it's something that can be resolved politically. When oil becomes scarce enough that the price goes too high based on the fundamentals, alternatives will be developed. It won't necessarily be an easy transition, but it will happen. I don't think it will lead to conflict or any of the other doomsday scenarios. If left to its own devices, the market will come up with the solution. High oil prices make investment in alternatives much more attractive, and with enough investment and true market interest (i.e., not government subsidies), research will advance enough and production scales will grow enough that alternatives will begin to displace oil.
Kind of sounds like spoiled brats who are going to break everyone else toys unless the US gets it way?
Would not be easier for US to grow up a little and move off of Oil?
Move off of oil. you could tripe teh stimulus and it wouldn't make a good satrt on repalcing oil and its infrastruture. Right;now if people had to apy teh price difference of alterantive even if their were some that would make a dent the people would scream over the rpice. None make uyp 1% now and the closest is wood.
Finally, someone who understands the economics here. It's not an issue of getting off oil or remaining addicted to oil - as if it's something that can be resolved politically. When oil becomes scarce enough that the price goes too high based on the fundamentals, alternatives will be developed. It won't necessarily be an easy transition, but it will happen. I don't think it will lead to conflict or any of the other doomsday scenarios. If left to its own devices, the market will come up with the solution. High oil prices make investment in alternatives much more attractive, and with enough investment and true market interest (i.e., not government subsidies), research will advance enough and production scales will grow enough that alternatives will begin to displace oil.
I hope your right and I'm wrong. I have nothing to gain by being right. Your post makes sense. I only hope we can find an alternative that can do the job.
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